SMM6 March 16: the outer metal market fell across the board yesterday, with Lun Copper falling to a seven-week low on Tuesday, as traders and funds cut their bullish bets on copper prices as they grew worried that China, the largest consumer, would soon move to contain further price rises. Most of the LME metal market is red today. As of around 09:30, Lun copper, aluminum and zinc are up nearly 0.4 per cent, while lun lead and nickel are up nearly 0.1 per cent, while Lunxi is down nearly 0.3 per cent. Most of the domestic non-ferrous metals are green, international copper is down nearly 1.6%, Shanghai copper is down nearly 1.5%, Shanghai aluminum is down nearly 0.4%, Shanghai lead is down nearly 0.8%, Shanghai zinc is up nearly 1%, Shanghai nickel is down nearly 3.2%, and Shanghai tin is down nearly 0.2%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, overnight US retail sales data for May fell more than expected, dampening optimism about the pace of economic recovery, with the dollar index rising, putting some pressure on copper futures. In addition, the u. S. may PPI data continued to rise, up 0.8% from the previous month, no ban on the market before the upcoming fed interest rate decision to strengthen concerns about liquidity tightening signals, while domestic regulatory controls on commodity prices have not been relaxed, the market.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Market worries have increased and copper pressure has fallen sharply overnight.
In terms of aluminum, Shanghai Aluminum is still restricted by macro, policy and fundamental factors. The short-term macro and policy aspects have a greater impact. Last week, it was rumored on the policy side that the dumping and storage method tended to be in a small number of ways, which was inconsistent with the expected short-term large shipments. Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded significantly, but there may still be some variables.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Shanghai Aluminum Corporation is affected by concerns about tightening monetary liquidity, which fluctuates downwards.
Lead, overnight Shanghai lead weak shock, the lower 15200 yuan / ton line support is OK, during the day still need to pay attention to 15200 yuan / ton line support. Yesterday's lead shock fell, and coincided with the delivery day of Shanghai lead 2106 contract, the price of the holder decreased, at the same time, apart from a small part of the rigid demand procurement downstream after the festival, others are more cautious and wait and see, the trading of bulk orders has not improved greatly for the time being. Under the pressure of high inventory, the price of lead may gradually weaken. It is expected that the average price of SMM1# lead today.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] the inventory of lead is weak and concussive overnight, and the inventory is at a new high again after the festival.
Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a positive column, the upper 10-day moving average to form a pressure, the lower 40-day moving average to provide support. Overnight Shanghai zinc continued the trend of shock in the range, SMM social inventory decreased again, although there is selling news, but the market is still cautious. Pay attention to macro guidance in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] Shanghai Zinc continues the interval fluctuation trend and pays close attention to the macroscopic guidelines in the short term.
For the black system, the thread fell nearly 0.4%, the hot coil fell nearly 0.1%, the coking coal rose nearly 1.5%, the coke rose nearly 2.3%, the iron ore rose nearly 0.7%, and the stainless steel fell nearly 0.6%. In terms of iron ore, the port spot price tracked by SMM shows that the current low-and medium-grade price gap continues to expand, and the demand for low-grade ore has improved recently. In addition, according to the calculation of SMM214.85 Meimei Gold Mine, the profit of rebar in domestic long-process steel mills is only about 120 yuan / ton; although the profits of steel mills have declined recently, the active production reduction and maintenance is limited, and there is still support for iron ore prices in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Iron and Steel Morning meeting] Raw material prices run smoothly and continue to fluctuate in black.
Crude oil rose nearly 0.9 per cent in the previous period, while international oil prices rose nearly 2 per cent on Tuesday, hitting a more than two-year high, boosted by expectations that demand will recover rapidly in the second half of 2021. Several of the world's largest oil traders said on Tuesday that they expected oil prices to remain above $70 a barrel and that demand was expected to return to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of 2022. This boosted oil prices.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold and silver fell nearly 0.3%. Gold futures fell to their lowest level in a month on Tuesday, as traders waited for the results of the Fed's two-day policy meeting to look for clues about starting to scale back its bond-buying program. Us retail sales fell more than expected in May as vaccination enabled Americans to travel and engage in other activities restricted by the novel coronavirus pandemic, with spending shifting from goods to services, according to data released on Tuesday.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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[SMM Metal Morning reference] Lunni fell nearly 5%, copper fell 4% * aluminum bar processing fees fell under pressure * lead ingots continued to grow.
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