Does BYD / Wei "load" solid-state batteries in the next two years?

Solid-state batteries are accelerating their commercialization. On May 26th, Ganfeng Lithium said on the investor interactive platform that the company's first-generation mixed solid-liquid electrolyte battery products have passed a number of third-party safety tests and customer sample tests with an energy density of 235~280Wh/kg. The second generation solid-state lithium battery is based on high-nickel ternary cathode and metal-containing lithium anode materials. at present, the energy density of the product is more than 350 Whhand kg, and the cycle life is close to 400 times.

Not long ago, Ningde Times also said in an institutional survey that the company has been developing solid-state batteries for many years and is in the first echelon and can make solid-state battery samples. In January, Ningde Times unveiled two patents related to solid-state batteries, which can improve the energy density and cycle performance of all-solid-state batteries by improving the conductivity of solid-state electrolytes.

And Ningde era's "old rival" BYD is not to be outdone, not only posted its own solid-state battery "cool techs" patent, but also said its commercial speed will be faster. According to media reports, BYD expects to mass-produce solid-state batteries as early as 2021 and may assemble a high-end model in 2022.

In addition, at the beginning of this year, Xilai announced the launch of a 150kWh solid-state battery with an energy density of 360Wh/kg, and the ET7 sedan with the battery pack will exceed the 1000km for battery life. The product will be available in the fourth quarter of 2022. BMW Group proposed that its solid-state battery prototype will be launched in 2025, and Volkswagen is also actively deploying solid-state batteries.

In fact, in addition to the above-mentioned enterprises, many domestic lithium battery manufacturers and materials enterprises, such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech, AVIC Lithium Power, Jiangsu Qingtao, Lishen Battery, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Huineng Technology, Hengdian East Magnetic, Jiawei shares, Dangsheng Technology, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Beitre and so on, have also laid out the development of solid-state lithium battery technology.

The industry believes that the solid-state battery field has entered the "arms race" stage, enterprises are expected to seize the opportunity to win market share. There are many participants in the solid-state battery market, and car companies, battery enterprises, investment institutions and scientific research institutions play games in three aspects: capital, technology and talents. With the accession of more and more enterprises, the industrialization process of solid-state batteries is accelerating.

In terms of performance, solid-state batteries can crush traditional lithium batteries. The upper limit of energy density of traditional liquid lithium-ion battery is recognized as 300Whxxkg, even if 300Wh/kg is only a theoretical value. At present, the energy density of liquid battery can reach 230 Whtabkg, so it is difficult to improve it from the technical level. But the energy density of solid-state battery can easily reach more than 300-400Wh/kg. Theoretically, the energy density of solid-state battery can reach 700W / kg, which is twice as high as that of liquid battery.

"the current liquid lithium-ion battery has reached its limit with an energy density of 300Wh/kg or a little higher, and our next step is to develop solid-state batteries or gradually transition to all-solid-state lithium batteries." In January this year, Chen Liquan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, called loudly at the online forum of the China Electric vehicle Association of 100 people.

In recent years, the safety accidents of new energy vehicles occur frequently all over the world. because of its flammability, the electrolyte of liquid battery is easy to leak or volatilize in the event of impact, which leads to safety accidents such as battery fire and explosion. The solid-state battery uses the non-flammable all-solid electrolyte instead of the liquid electrolyte, which can not smoke, fire and explode even after the physical shock. At the same time, the lithium dendrite phenomenon has been restrained enough and the safety has been greatly improved.

Industry analysts believe that with the advantages of safety and energy density, solid-state batteries are expected to achieve rapid development, while forcing the existing liquid battery system to change and upgrade. According to the estimation of Bank of China Securities, the market potential of solid-state lithium-ion battery is huge, and the global demand is expected to reach 44.2GWh and 494.9GWhin 2025 and 2030 respectively, and its global market space is expected to reach more than 150 billion yuan in 2030.

However, although the performance of solid-state batteries is excellent, the industry believes that there is still a long way to go before commercialization. Ningde Times said frankly: although the company has been studying solid-state batteries for many years, there are still some scientific problems in all-solid-state batteries that have not been solved at this stage, such as the difficulty of solid-state diffusion and liquid diffusion is not an order of magnitude. Before it is completely solved, it is difficult to make a real solid-state battery fundamentally.

Generally speaking, there are three steps in the commercialization of solid-state battery technology, the first is to study the feasibility of the technical route, the second is the product route, turning the R & D technology into a product is a process of engineering optimization, such as how to design safety, etc. The third is the commodity route, because the commodity requires profit, it must be feasible in commercialization, and it requires that the goods produced can be sold and realized profits and then re-invested in research and development, and so on.

In order to realize the large-scale commercial application of solid-state battery, the cost problem needs to be solved. It is generally believed that solid-state batteries are very different from traditional lithium-ion batteries in principle, which makes their manufacturing and production can not rely on the original production line, need to "start a new stove". At present, solid-state batteries have not yet formed a complete industrial chain, and there are no conditions to support large-scale commercial use. At the current level of technology, it will take another 5 to 10 years for solid-state batteries to be carried on production cars.