Under the continuous rise mode of the industrial chain, the photovoltaic giant's capacity increases again, and the silicon wafer capacity is damaged by 10% in May

After today's trading, Longji, the leading photovoltaic company, announced that Earthquake in some areas had had a certain impact on the company's production capacity.

According to the official determination of the China Earthquake Network, on the evening of May 21 and in the early morning of May 22, 2021, the highest magnitudes of 6.4 Earthquake (focal depth 8 km) and 7.4 Earthquake (focal depth 17 km) occurred in Yingyi County, Dali Prefecture, Yunnan Province and Maduo County, Guoluo Prefecture, Qinghai Province, respectively. In view of the fact that the company's monocrystalline silicon rod and wafer production bases are mainly concentrated in Ningxia (Yinchuan, Zhongning) and Yunnan (Lijiang, Baoshan, Qujing, Chuxiong), the Earthquake has had a certain impact on the company's production and operation. it is expected to affect the company's May single crystal wafer production of 120 million wafers, accounting for about 10% of the company's single crystal wafer production that month, and there are no casualties so far.

After the occurrence of Earthquake, the company attaches great importance to it, and the relevant subsidiaries actively organize on-site production recovery work. According to the current situation, full production is expected to resume within a week.

It is worth noting that on May 14, Longie announced an increase in the price of silicon wafers. In addition, at the performance presentation meeting held as early as April 21, the person in charge of Longji revealed that due to the shortage of silicon wafers and in order to ensure the delivery of orders to other customers downstream, the company's battery production capacity in Hefei, Taizhou and other factories has been shut down and reduced production.

The upstream raw materials are in short supply and the price of silicon wafers is rising.

Corresponding to the damage to the production capacity of Longji shares, due to the rising price of silicon, the leading enterprises of silicon wafers continue to "rise".

In the past four months of this year, the price of single crystal silicon has risen by more than 75%. According to Solarzoom, last week, the price of single crystal silicon rose 17 yuan / kg to 185 yuan / kg. The widening of the silicon price range is due to the intention of some companies to control price increases, while the remaining long and bulk prices continue to rise driven by supply and demand.

And the rising pressure of silicon material is all being transmitted to the downstream link.

Since the beginning of this month, the photovoltaic industry chain has continued to rise: on May 14, Longji again announced an increase in the price of silicon wafers. Compared with April 23, G1 quoted 4.39 yuan, up 0.49 yuan; M6 size silicon wafers quoted 4.49 yuan, up 0.49 yuan; M10 size silicon wafers quoted 5.39 yuan, up 0.53 yuan; On May 10, the wafers of different sizes of Central shares rose 0.33 yuan to 0.6 yuan per wafer, while 210mm wafers rose to 7 yuan per wafer. On May 11, Tongwei battery wafers rose again by 6-7 cents per watt.

Behind the frequent price increases is the high potential demand for photovoltaic in 2021.

Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the supply chain can not meet the demand, can only through price increases and profit distribution of the industrial chain to depress the potential demand, make it match the supply capacity, the industrial chain whether unit profit or total profit is in the expansion stage. The market is worried about the operating rate of the short-term industrial chain, but it is understood that the operating rate in the upper and middle reaches is basically full, and in the short term downstream, there is a price game between operators and component enterprises, resulting in a small reduction in operating rate in the short term, similar to the third quarter of last year. Is a very short-term behavior.

The agency believes that 2021 will still be a big year of photovoltaic demand, with new installations or 170GW (demand for components limited by the supply chain), with an increase of about 30%. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the supply and demand of silicon materials is tight, the supply and demand of EVA resin continues to be tight, the supply and demand of glass is alleviated, the price of silicon wafer is better than expected due to the rhythm of supply and release and the support of the cost curve, and the battery profit is in the bottom range, and the current industry's median valuation in 2021 is about 27 times. The performance-to-price ratio of horizontal and vertical contrast is high.