SMM3 March 4: the outer disk metal generally fell yesterday, and in terms of nickel, the project from nickel iron to high matte nickel affected the expectation of resource shortage in the new energy industry chain, made up for some structural gaps, and may also have a small impact on the overall balance sheet of primary nickel. Nickel prices will still fall to absorb this part of the expectation. Since there is no real production project for the production of high matte nickel in Ferro-nickel, it is difficult to evaluate the real cost. Compared with nickel beans, there is a dynamic change in the economy of nickel sulfate, and the coefficient of intermediate products and the spot discount of nickel beans are uncertain values. for nickel sulfate enterprises, the reasonable strategy is to purchase two kinds of materials properly to make their economy dynamic balance. On the whole, the future trend of nickel prices will return to the fundamentals of the primary nickel balance sheet, that is, the state of small excess, and the expected high range of nickel prices will be reduced. This round of decline digests the expectations of the nickel-iron-to-high matte project, and continues to pay attention to the momentum consumption of this round of decline. Most of the LME metal market turned green this morning. By about 09:30 in the morning, Lunn Copper fell nearly 0.2%, Lunzn Zinc rose nearly 0.1%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 0.3%, Lun Nickel fell slightly, Lunxi fell nearly 0.9%, Len lead fell nearly 0.7%, and domestic international copper and Shanghai Copper fell nearly 1%. Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 1.2%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 1.6%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 1.9%, Shanghai nickel fell nearly 6%, Shanghai tin fell nearly 2.2%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, the number of US ADP payrolls announced last night was much lower than expected and the previous value, indicating that the recovery of the labor market is still difficult. In addition, as the government prepares for new fiscal stimulus measures, investors have increased their bets on US economic growth and inflation, inflation expectations have hit a 10-year high, Treasury yields have soared again, and the US index has risen higher at night. Technology stocks led the benchmark index of US stocks lower and copper futures fell sharply at night. Spot, the market is still in shock repair, spot quotation is expected to be active in the purchase of further stop falling and rebounding. It is expected to be 9060-9160 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 66600-67300 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today. The spot discount is expected to be 10-90 yuan per ton today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the poor performance of copper in the night market may return to the rising trend.
In terms of aluminum, on the night of March 3, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 17570 yuan / ton, the highest point reached 17870 yuan / ton, and closed at 17565 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton, or 0.86%. Ln aluminum opened at $2220 a tonne in the morning, hitting a high of $2241.5 a tonne to close at $2215 a tonne, down $9.50, or 0.43 per cent. Short-term Shanghai Aluminum continues high wide range concussion. Medium-term continue to pay attention to long short mood changes, it is recommended to increase shipments upstream, downstream procurement on demand-based, careful to chase high. Fundamentals are concerned about the impact of new messages from the "two sessions" on short-term mood swings in the market. Domestic unilateral advice to be cautious to chase more.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Shanghai aluminum prices hit a new high and wait-and-see mood in the lower reaches rises again.
Lead, overnight LME base metals in the dollar index rebound in the collective pressure, lun lead by this drag to close the negative column. However, judging from the trend in the past two months, Lun lead is still running in a large cycle of rising form, and LME lead inventory has not yet been significantly accumulated, and the short-term decline is expected to be limited, with a focus on the first-line support of US $2000 / ton below. Overnight, Shanghai lead recorded a long shadow line, reaching the 40-day moving average. Recently, on the eve of the two sessions in China, we still need to pay attention to the impact of the topic of carbon neutralization and emission reduction on the industry.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] overnight lead pressure in the two cities fell back and recently paid attention to the impact of the developments of the two sessions on the market.
In terms of zinc, the overnight dollar returned to the 91 index high, the Lun zinc market was under pressure from the dollar to erase the rebound in the past two days and returned to its low level, and short sellers continued to press Lun zinc. In the near future, if there is no significant positive in the market, Lun Zinc will still maintain a low level of shock operation. Focus on US monetary easing in the short term. The optimism driven by the overnight outer disk faded, and Shanghai zinc also erased nearly two days of gains, returning to low shocks, and may pass the domestic inventory peak in the next two weeks, when demand is expected to boost Shanghai zinc. Pay short-term attention to the formulation of domestic annual economic targets.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] optimism in the outer disk fades to Shanghai and zinc returns to low concussion.
In terms of nickel, the current fundamentals are empty. Under the background of hot production of nickel pig iron, the nickel price may recently become empty, but some of the factors that support the nickel price macroscopically in the early stage still exist. In addition, before the nickel iron conversion to high matte project is really put into production, the market still has a game caused by economy, so the price uncertainty is greatly enhanced. The guidance of the news side and the positive speculative interpretation of the operators will have a sensitive impact on the market, whether accurate or not, and the reference significance of technical indicators will decline, so it is recommended to operate with caution.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the signing agreement for Indonesia's high nickel matte project draws market attention to the return of pricing logic to primary nickel fundamentals in the nickel market.
In terms of black series, threads rose nearly 0.1%, hot rolls rose nearly 0.2%, coking coal fell nearly 0.2%, coke fell nearly 2.4%, exaggerated nearly 0.1%, stainless steel fell nearly 4.4%. In terms of threads, stimulated by the news of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan, the black series rose sharply overnight, the spot market was more excited in early trading, and the overall increase varied from 120 yuan to 190 yuan per ton. after the price rise, the spot transaction was blocked, and the demand was afraid of the high price. The enthusiasm of taking the goods obviously weakened, the afternoon volume fell slightly, and the spot quotation was followed by a reduction of 30-40 yuan / ton. after the price drop, the transaction still did not improve obviously, and the overall whole-day transaction was generally weak.
[view of SMM's internal morning meeting on March 4th] Futures trading is buoyant, black spot and upward momentum may not have enough stamina.
The previous issue of crude oil rose nearly 1.1 per cent and international oil prices fell to a two-week low on Tuesday on expectations that the OPEC alliance of the (OPEC) and its allies will ease supply restrictions at a meeting later this week as the economy begins to recover from the novel coronavirus crisis. The rise in oil prices has receded as OPEC is expected to increase oil production from April, reducing the sharp supply cuts made last year. Us crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose sharply last week, according to data released by the American Petroleum Association (API) on Tuesday.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.9%, and Shanghai silver fell nearly 1.3%. COMEX gold futures fell more than 2% on Wednesday to their lowest level in nearly nine months, as rising u.s. bond yields and a stronger dollar undermined gold's attractiveness. Longer-term Treasury yields rose on Wednesday as investors followed the remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell on Thursday for signs that the Fed was prepared to acknowledge the risks posed by rapidly rising interest rates.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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