The index rose and fell, and all stocks were in a state of general decline, with more than 3000 stocks falling for most of the day. On the plate, there are big differences in the main line of capital hugging group, the spirits plate led the rise throughout the day, and the core targets of lithium power, photovoltaic, military industry, wind power and other plates rose sharply in the morning trading. in the afternoon to the sun and moon shares, Ganfeng lithium industry, sunshine power supply as the representative of the core stocks dived sharply, with the expansion of the overall increase in the main line plate, capital differences are also gradually increasing. Apple's industrial chain, semiconductors, communications equipment and other sectors continued to be frustrated, and their performance remained depressed throughout the day.
As of the close, the Prev index rose 0.48% to close at 3624 points; the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.52% to close at 15710 points; and the gem index fell 0.09% to close at 3355 points. Shanghai shares have a net inflow of 2.457 billion, while Shenzhen stocks have a net inflow of 1.03 billion.
Citic Securities believes that under the influence of the sporadic epidemic, the market will experience the downward revision of fundamental expectations and the upward revision of liquidity expectations, and the overall pattern of slow growth will be maintained. The entry of incremental funds in the future can still be expected, in the annual report notice disclosure window, the replacement of new and old funds will briefly strengthen the original market structure. However, in February, it is expected that after the rotation of plate funds, the market will enter a state of equilibrium, and the slow rise in the second half will gradually shift from profit-driven to capital-driven. First of all, the outbreak of this outbreak affected the pace of economic recovery in the first quarter to a certain extent, and the time point of marginal tightening of liquidity policy is expected to be further delayed until the epidemic is fully brought under control or indicators such as consumption are significantly improved. Secondly, the liquidity of the A-share incremental market is still in the inertia upward stage, and the southward capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks will slow down in the future, and there will be no obvious diversion of incremental funds. Finally, when the market enters the key area, the replacement of individual investors' stock funds to institutional incremental funds will be accelerated, the original market structure will be temporarily strengthened, the inter-plate capital relay will continue, and the market will enter a state of equilibrium after the completion of the replacement.
Citic Construction Investment Securities maintains the view that the market is wide and volatile in 2021, and the market differentiation throughout the year will be more extreme. Dilution index and intensive manufacturing are the best strategies for the whole year. From the current market point of view, photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other industries will continue to perform, vaccines and testing and other biomedical industries, rare metal industries represented by rare metals, PTA and PX represented by the chemical industry will have high quality targets with performance-to-price ratio, investors are advised to add.
Haitong Securities pointed out that the rebound in the fundamentals of China's listed companies will continue to be confirmed, and A shares are in the third stage of the bull market driven by fundamentals and sentiment. The A-share spring market is still on the way, paying attention to big finance in the short term, and bullish on science and technology + mass consumption throughout the year.
Guotai Junan Securities analysis, after two rounds of non-fundamental higher-than-expected market in 2020 (the first round is the pursuit of deterministic premium driven by the epidemic, and the second round is the valuation driven by liquidity easing), the current blue chip share prices break away from fundamentals and become trading-oriented. Due to factors such as liquidity "no sharp turn" and residents' allocation of strength, it is difficult to disintegrate in the short term, but in the medium-term investment dimension, we must pay attention to the risks. At present, risk appetite is low, macro liquidity "no sharp turn", micro liquidity higher-than-expected resonance of the three factors continue, blue-chip Bubble not only a moment of sparkle, before the Spring Festival are difficult to see obvious disintegration. Societe Generale Securities is optimistic about the market, the end of the year at the beginning of the year, before the two sessions is a long time window. From a fundamental point of view, from macro to micro, the overall economy shows good resilience, and the demand side is also actively improving at home and abroad. Liquidity, macro-liquidity will still be in a relatively loose pattern, no inflation will not tighten; stock market liquidity in the equity era of resident allocation, institutional allocation, global allocation is still accelerating. From the point of view of industry configuration, the main line of growth diffusion + recovery (mid-upstream periodic products) is the two main lines of the current configuration. 1) risk preference enhancement + liquidity easing + policy catalysis + performance improvement, four positive superposition, growth stocks are expected to spread to other directions. 2) domestic economic recovery + Democratic Party to achieve "blue sweep", overseas stimulus is expected to increase, the main line of economic recovery, the general trend of improvement of weekly products in the middle and upper reaches.
Anxin Securities said the massive inflow of southward capital into Hong Kong stocks reflected the spillover of liquidity in the mainland equity market and an improvement in risk appetite in the Hong Kong market. For Hong Kong stocks, the massive influx of southward capital focuses on the replenishment of core assets in Hong Kong stocks, which may not last long. On the other hand, to further improve the allocation of Hong Kong stocks, A-share investors need to have more understanding and familiarity with the trading rules, corporate fundamentals and liquidity of Hong Kong stocks. For A-shares, southward funds belong to liquidity "spillover" rather than "blood loss". The follow-up market of A-shares depends more on the changes of their own liquidity environment, and the current abundant liquidity environment is still sufficient to support the continuation of the spring market. The industry pays attention to medicine, computer, military industry, electronics (panel), photovoltaic, automobile (including new energy vehicles), small household appliances, chemical industry, non-ferrous metals, machinery and so on.
New Times Securities pointed out that in Q1 in 2021, residents' funds will flow into the stock market from multiple channels, and the balance of public offering funds and financing has rebounded rapidly. according to the more common seasonal law, the hottest time for residents' funds may be in March. If it rises too fast from January to February (as fast as it did in July, for example), it may be overdrawn ahead of time. The new catalyst at the economic level focuses on credit in January and construction in March. On the whole, in the coming quarter, the dominant force in the market is incremental capital, and the market is in the early stages of a new round of rise. In the coming quarter, the main driving force of the market rise will be improved from the previous profit expectations, phased into incremental funds, the performance of the sector will also change, most sectors will have absolute income. The valuation adjustment of growth stocks has been relatively sufficient, there is the possibility of valuation repair, especially in the initial stage of incremental funds. New energy vehicles and military industry, which have the highest fundamental expectations in 2021, will continue to attract incremental capital and may still be the strongest direction in the near future. The main reason behind the weaker-than-expected performance of cyclical finance is not the fundamentals, but the slow change in the inertia of investors' understanding and learning. Cyclical finance is still recommended to overmatch, which is likely to become stronger and stronger, especially during the disclosure period of annual and quarterly reports and the start of construction after the Spring Festival. Focus on automotive, military, non-ferrous, chemical, securities firms, banks.
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