SMM12 March 28: the LME metal market continues to be closed today. on the domestic side, international copper rose nearly 1.3%, Shanghai copper rose nearly 1.2%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.8%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 1.2%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 1.4%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 1.2%, and Shanghai tin rose nearly 0.1%. The US fiscal stimulus was passed by Congress last week, but US President Donald Trump refused to sign it, adding to the uncertainty. Trump signed the $900 billion novel coronavirus bail-out bill and the government appropriation bill, which were confirmed by the White House earlier. Most of the non-ferrous metals were red in the morning, but the gains were limited, and the market continued to pick up when news came that Trump had signed the $900 billion novel coronavirus bailout bill and the government appropriations bill.
In terms of copper, macroscopically, the epidemic continues to spread. After the British announced the closure of the city, the Japanese government adopted entry restrictions. The epidemic is getting worse, but the speed of vaccination in the United States is far less than expected, causing concern among investors. The London Metal Exchange is closed on Boxing Day and operates independently today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] LME continues to close the market to ferment the center of gravity of copper in Shanghai slightly lower.
In terms of lead, the signing of the Brexit trade agreement offset the negative impact of the shelving of the stimulus bill, and overseas metal stocks were generally boosted by this. Overnight lead continued to rebound to close the Xiaoyang line to close at Sanlianyang, under pressure of US $2000 / ton. It should also be noted that overseas financial markets will be closed for Christmas today. Overnight basic metals continued to rise during the day, with Shanghai lead under pressure for 10 days, due to increased enthusiasm for recycled lead shipments and expansion of discounts, while downstream consumption weakened with higher lead prices, and the upstream height of Shanghai lead was limited.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead in Shanghai rose slightly and spot inventory ended with eight consecutive increases.
As for zinc, the market for zinc was closed last Friday because of the Christmas holiday. Last Friday, Shanghai zinc recorded three Lianyang, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form a pressure, the lower 10-day moving average to provide support. Supply-side zinc ore processing fees continue to fall, although the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises in North China continues to decline, but the consumption in East and South China still exists, and the long logic of the market has not changed. Pay attention to the arrival of overseas mines in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] there is still a margin of supply and demand to support the record of three Lianyang zinc in Shanghai.
In terms of nickel, after the macro-positive overdraft in the short term, the gradually increasing pressure of partial emptiness is released and released more than expected, which also reflects the important role of capital factors in the early nickel price rise. In terms of fundamentals, it is relatively stable in the near future, nickel pig iron and stainless steel enter the stalemate game range, close to equilibrium; the slow drop of electrolytic nickel may be expected to improve in the long term due to the reduction of import tariffs, and the possibility of squeezing positions is greatly reduced; it is expected that in the short term, macro factors and futures long-short funds game are still the main factors affecting nickel prices.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] spot transaction is gradually light and the market price of stainless steel remains stable.
On the tin side, LME tin inventory fell to 2105 tons last week, spot against March futures rose as high as $191 / ton, the number of written-off warehouse receipts remained high, indicating that overseas supply shortages intensified, LME tin maintained a high operating trend. On the macro level, a new round of economic stimulus policy in the United States is just around the corner, and the differences between the two parties are limited. Domestic downstream consumption performance is strong, according to the Bureau of Statistics, white goods production increased by 35% in November compared with the same period last year, which will lead to an increase in downstream solder demand. Macro and fundamental data constitute a strong support for tin prices, tin is expected to maintain a strong shock trend as a whole.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the shortage of overseas tin supply further aggravates the strong shock of tin material during the period.
For the black system, the thread rose nearly 0.8%, the hot coil fell nearly 0.6%, the coking coal rose nearly 4.2%, the coke rose nearly 2.8%, and the iron ore rose nearly 0.6%. On the hot coil side, on the supply side, the output basically remained high, but the market supply was on the low side. Demand side, short-term downstream demand for plates is not reduced, but their own profits have been compressed, procurement enthusiasm has declined. Mentality, recently affected by the outer disk, the black collective fell sharply, superimposed early plate prices have been overvalued, resulting in a slight lack of market confidence, merchants are willing to be strong. On the other hand, the short sentiment has not been fully released and is expected to show a weak concussion trend this week.
[SMM Morning meeting View] seasonal interference increases black downside risk accumulation
The last period of crude oil rose nearly 1.6%. Last week, international oil prices recorded a weekly decline for the first time in nearly eight weeks, ending the previous weekly "seven Lianyang" trend. Analysts pointed out that although the oil market has been relatively strong recently, a similar rebound is unlikely. The head of the Riverstone Holdings LLC said that the recent rise in the oil market exceeded the expectations of most investors, but it was only temporary because the novel coronavirus epidemic still dominated most parts of the world.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 1.1%, Shanghai silver rose nearly 4.3%, and international spot gold rose a lot, approaching the 1900 mark again. On the one hand, Trump signed the novel coronavirus relief bill into law, on the other hand, the new mutant strain has spread around the world, forcing more than 40 countries to impose a travel ban on Britain, and Japan announced an one-month ban, causing market panic. These factors will push up the price of gold to continue to rise. However, investors still need to pay attention to the positive effects of vaccination, especially since the European Union began to vaccinate one after another on the 26th, which will bring a certain drag on the price of gold.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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