Is the bull market in commodities still on the way? A logical inventory of transactions in several major plates

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Dec 14, 2020 08:11
[commodity bull market is still on its way? In terms of non-ferrous metals, Shanghai Copper, Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Zinc and other varieties have been strong recently. From a macro point of view, the market has strong expectations for inflation next year, superimposed a weak dollar cycle, and strong non-ferrous financial attributes, thus gaining stronger support. From a fundamental point of view, the dominant inventory of copper, aluminum, zinc and other varieties is generally low, the inventory-consumption ratio is low in the same period in history, and the overall pace of demand recovery at this stage is still faster than supply.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ•์„ธ, ๋ฐฑ๊ธˆ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ ์†Œ๋น„ ์ •์ƒ [SMM ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
49๋ถ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ•์„ธ, ๋ฐฑ๊ธˆ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ ์†Œ๋น„ ์ •์ƒ [SMM ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ•์„ธ, ๋ฐฑ๊ธˆ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ ์†Œ๋น„ ์ •์ƒ [SMM ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ•์„ธ, ๋ฐฑ๊ธˆ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ ์†Œ๋น„ ์ •์ƒ [SMM ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
49๋ถ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์— ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ์„ ๋ฌผ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ, ์€ ํ˜„๋ฌผ์‹œ์žฅ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ์œ ์ง€ ๋ฐ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ํšŒ๋ณต [SMM Daily Review]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์— ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ์„ ๋ฌผ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ, ์€ ํ˜„๋ฌผ์‹œ์žฅ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ์œ ์ง€ ๋ฐ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ํšŒ๋ณต [SMM Daily Review]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฏธ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์— ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ์„ ๋ฌผ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ, ์€ ํ˜„๋ฌผ์‹œ์žฅ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ์œ ์ง€ ๋ฐ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ํšŒ๋ณต [SMM Daily Review]
๋ฏธ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์— ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ์„ ๋ฌผ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ, ์€ ํ˜„๋ฌผ์‹œ์žฅ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ์œ ์ง€ ๋ฐ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ํšŒ๋ณต [SMM Daily Review]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM ์€ ๋ถ„์„] 5์›” ์ค‘๊ตญ ์€ ์ˆ˜์ž… ๊ฐ์†Œ, ํŽ˜๋ฃจ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ตญ
20์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM ์€ ๋ถ„์„] 5์›” ์ค‘๊ตญ ์€ ์ˆ˜์ž… ๊ฐ์†Œ, ํŽ˜๋ฃจ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ตญ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ์€ ๋ถ„์„] 5์›” ์ค‘๊ตญ ์€ ์ˆ˜์ž… ๊ฐ์†Œ, ํŽ˜๋ฃจ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ตญ
[SMM ์€ ๋ถ„์„] 5์›” ์ค‘๊ตญ ์€ ์ˆ˜์ž… ๊ฐ์†Œ, ํŽ˜๋ฃจ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ตญ
5์›” ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์€ ์ •๊ด‘ ์ˆ˜์ž…์€ ์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 15.8% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํŽ˜๋ฃจ๊ฐ€ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ตญ์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ •์ œ ์€ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์€ ์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 11% ์ค„์—ˆ๊ณ , ์ˆ˜์ž…์€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์ด ์ถ•์†Œ๋˜๋ฉฐ 69% ๊ธ‰๊ฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฌด์—ญ ์ฐฝ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์ ์ฐจ ์ •์ƒํ™”๋˜๋ฉฐ 6์›”๋กœ ์ ‘์–ด๋“ค๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.
20์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „