The inflection point is coming! In the past, the "Lithium King" rose by the daily limit, and hot money institutions went north to buy from Heli.

SMM News: recently, the new energy vehicle industry chain is very hot, the trend of lithium battery plate is also very strong, the index continues to reach a new high. Lithium prices have rebounded recently, the former "Lithium King" Tianqi lithium industry ushered in the limit today, in addition, the market capitalization of the leading Ganfeng lithium industry today entered the hundreds of billions mark.

After opening slightly higher in the morning, Tianqi Lithium Industry fluctuated all the way higher, and the share price accelerated in the afternoon, blocking the limit at 13:45, and the chips loosened in late trading. As of the close, Tianqi Lithium Industry was sealed on the limit board at 26.33 yuan, with more than 23000 orders, with a total market capitalization of 38.8 billion. The after-market list shows that hot money institutions are buying from the north.

Industry insiders believe that in terms of market pattern, the main domestic lithium carbonate producers are Tianqi Lithium Industry, Ganfeng Lithium Industry and Ruifu Lithium Industry, among which Tianqi Lithium Industry currently has a lithium salt production capacity of 34000 tons per year, including 5000 tons of lithium hydroxide and 29000 tons of lithium carbonate. Lithium carbonate ranks first among major companies in 2019, accounting for about 16.09%.

And it also pointed out that compared with the recent trend of daily K line of Ganfeng lithium industry, Tianqi lithium industry has a certain supplementary demand.

However, it should be warned that Tianqi Lithium Industry is still mired in a debt crisis, and its balance of "non-current liabilities due within one year" is still as high as 13.305 billion by the end of September 2020, of which 12 billion are M & A loans that must be repaid in the fourth quarter of 2020.

In addition, its third quarterly report also continued to lose money. Tianqi Lithium Industry released its third quarter report for 2020 on the evening of October 19th. From January to September this year, the company achieved operating income of 2.427 billion yuan, down 36.09% from the same period last year. The net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was-1.103 billion yuan, a decrease of 890.95% over the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses belonging to shareholders of listed companies was-974 million yuan, a decrease of 6,383.79 percent over the same period last year.

The after-market list shows that hot money, northward direction, and institutions buy together. Seats, buy one, buy three for the top tourist side Xin Xia, brother Zhao, respectively buy 164 million, 91.97 million; buy two deep stock to buy 158 million. At the same time, one sold 102 million, buying a total of 56.82 million; buying five institutions to buy 73.51 million.

Supply and demand improve, lithium price meets inflection point

Affected by the epidemic and the low lithium price, the global lithium resources expansion project has been suspended and delayed on a large scale. Since July, domestic and South American lithium carbonate prices have shown signs of rebound. The accelerated rise of the overseas electric car market, the increase in the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones, and the counter-trend growth in segments such as electric bicycles and TWS headphones have made lithium consumption in the battery sector remain highly resilient.

The agency believes that since 2020, Australian mines and Chinese companies have signed long orders to restart to further clarify the bottom signal of lithium prices. At present, the lithium price is over-falling, and the de-inventory of the industry is basically completed; while the global trend of automobile electrification has been established, the demand for power batteries is growing rapidly, which directly boosts the demand for lithium salt, and the industry will usher in upward repair.

Guotai Junan Research News believes that the demand for electric vehicles is higher than expected, and we judge that in the second half of 2021, the lithium industry will usher in the inflection point of supply and demand from the repair of industry surplus to the state of tight balance between supply and demand. Considering that the current Altura is likely to be cleared and shut down, the supply capacity of the whole industry will be reduced by 5%, the inflection point between supply and demand will come ahead of schedule, the lithium industry is expected to usher in a shortage, and lithium prices are expected to reverse.