[SMM afternoon Review] Shanghai lead, Shanghai tin rose by more than 1%, non-ferrous general inflation is expected to be strong, and the overall black system is still short.

SMM9 March 21: on Monday morning, non-ferrous metals rose generally, Shanghai copper rose 0.83%, Shanghai aluminum and zinc rose 0.55%, Shanghai lead rose 1.92%, Shanghai nickel fell 0.48%, and Shanghai tin rose 1.5%. Under the guidance of negative factors such as the US index falling again and the central bank's open market carrying out 100 billion yuan 7-day period and 40 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation, the atmosphere of the futures market is warm. In terms of lead, the analysis believes that there are signs of weakening in the peak season of battery replacement, and the support for lead prices has weakened, but the price of waste batteries has rebounded, and the cost support of recycled lead has appeared. In addition, the impact of the new "solid waste law" on recycled lead continues to ferment, limiting the growth rate of short-term supply and supporting lead prices below. In terms of nickel, national nickel pig iron production is expected to decline slightly in September, while stainless steel maintains a high output in September, the overall supply of nickel raw materials is tight, and the price correction of nickel and iron is expected to be limited. Although Indonesia's Delong Qingshan Industrial Park was put into production in the second and third quarters, Indonesia's Nickel Iron was put into production and returned to the country in the third and fourth quarters.

Black fell across the board today, with iron ore down 2.94% and threaded hot rolls down more than 1%. There has been a high correction in steel futures recently, and the analysis believes that factors such as early overdraft in the peak season, new construction of real estate and infrastructure investment are the main reasons for the decline of steel prices in this peak season. On the whole, there is still room for improvement in the relationship between supply and demand in the steel market, but the price trend may be dominated by repeated shocks.

Crude oil rose 2.15% in the previous period. Jet fuel consumption remains the hardest hit in the global oil market, as the COVID-19 pandemic and government travel restrictions prevent passengers from traveling by air. Weak demand for aviation fuel has caused distillate profit margins to fall to their lowest level in more than a decade and reduced refinery demand for crude oil processing, so a sustained recovery in distillate profits and crude oil prices will depend on a broader recovery in cross-border aviation. However, given the renewed rise in coronavirus cases in many countries and regions around the world, it seems relatively unlikely that long-haul flights will resume as soon as possible compared with a few months ago. Therefore, the increase in aviation fuel consumption and the increase in distillate profits and crude oil prices depend on the development of the epidemic.

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