Minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting on July 27th Disk: Lun Aluminum closed at 1697 US dollars / ton yesterday, down 0.61%, down 10.50 US dollars / ton. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2008 contract fell 5 yuan / ton, or 0.03%, to 14415 yuan / ton. The dollar index fell 0.47 per cent to 94.349.
Macro aspect: 1) according to the epidemic statistics of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, there were 254600 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide on July 25. Among them, there were 65500 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States. At around 15:00 on July 26, Beijing time, there were more than 16.04 million confirmed cases and 664500 deaths worldwide. (bearish) 2) the initial PMI of Markit manufacturing in the United States rose to 51.3 in July, rising above the boom-bust line for the first time since February. The expected value is 51, with a previous value of 49.8. In the United States, the initial PMI of the Markit service industry in July is 49.6, expected to be 50, and the previous value is 47.9. (bullish) 3) Oil demand fell less than expected in the second quarter. On July 10th the (IEA) of the International Energy Agency revised this year's oil demand to 92.1 million barrels a day, 400000 barrels a day higher than its June forecast. (neutral) 4) the central bank will carry out a seven-day reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion yuan today, as 100 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expires today, achieving zero release and zero withdrawal on the same day. (lidocaine)
Fundamentals: 1) A few days ago, the China solid waste Chemicals Management Network released the tenth batch of scrap metal import approvals, including 10110 tons of scrap copper, 1110 tons of waste aluminum and 3970 tons of scrap iron and steel. (neutral) 2 the aluminum bar market was relatively depressed last week: the weekly increase in the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures was close to 300 yuan / ton, while the spot price of aluminum ingots rose slightly less than 200 yuan / ton; the processing fees in Guangdong and Wuxi fell slightly, falling by 10-20 yuan per ton. General Administration of Customs: the export volume of China's aluminum foil in June 2020 was 94700 tons, down 1.13% from the previous month; in June 2020, the export volume of China's aluminum plate and strip was 167100 tons, which was lower than the same period last year; and the export volume of China's aluminum wheels was 51000 tons in June 2020. it decreased by 28.5% compared with the same period last year and increased by 42.2% compared with the same period last year. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 324000 tons, down 26.4 percent from the same period last year; in June 2020, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was 131000 tons, and the export volume was 11100 tons; in June 2020, the import of waste aluminum was 61000 tons, down 66.6 percent from the same period last year; in June 2020, China's imports of bauxite increased by 17.6 percent over the same period last year; and in June 2020, China imported 123500 tons of primary aluminum, an increase of more than 40 times over the same period last year. In June 2020, China exported 32300 tons of alumina and imported 422600 tons. (neutral)
Spot: today's holdings focus on rising water around 100 yuan / ton that month.
Summary: on the macro level, the PMI of US manufacturing has returned above the rise and fall line for the first time since February, global oil demand has increased compared with previous expectations, and the global economy has accelerated the pace of recovery, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of recent tensions between China and the United States. Fundamentals, SMM to maintain the previous aluminum price trend judgment unchanged, low inventory conditions, the current structure is stable, aluminum prices are supported.
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