SMM7 March 20: the LME metal market is generally green in morning trading. By about 09:35 in the morning, Lun zinc fell nearly 0.6%, Lun copper fell nearly 0.4%, lun lead fell nearly 0.3%, Lun aluminum fell nearly 0.1%, Lunxi was flat, Lunni rose nearly 0.6%, domestic metals mostly fell, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai lead and Shanghai nickel fell nearly 1.3%, Shanghai copper and tin fell nearly 0.1%. Shanghai Aluminum alone rose nearly 1.4%.
As for copper, the price of copper soared at the beginning of last week, while the scrap copper rod rose slowly, deducting about 1400 yuan / ton on the disk, attracting traders and downstream purchases, manufacturers have a large number of transactions, and actively supplement the corresponding raw material position in the market, receiving and bidding is higher. Overall, good orders support the high-load production of scrap copper rod mills. According to SMM data, the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises in June was 66.71%, a sharp increase of 23.08% from the previous month, an increase of 18.91% over the same period last year, and it is expected that the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises in July will be 70.12%. The demand for copper in the lower reaches is strong, and the supply remains tight.
"check details: [SMM Weekly selection] A large number of scrap copper rod manufacturers actively replenish the corresponding raw materials.
In terms of aluminum, last week (07.13mur07.17) the contract price of Shanghai Aluminum's main 2008 fell back, rising 14860 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, brushing the new 21-month high. Against the background of the continuous rise in aluminum prices, the lack of confidence among bulls began to show risk aversion, and their positions were reduced by more than 15000 hands on Monday. Positions decreased one after another in the next few days, and aluminum prices gave up all their gains in the previous two weeks on Thursday, falling to around 13960 yuan / ton, showing signs of a low rebound on Friday. Lun aluminum concussion fell last week, the upper 1700 US dollars / ton barrier pressure is difficult to break through, the week recorded five consecutive overcast, the low stopped at around 1650 US dollars / ton.
"check details: [SMM Weekly selection] the downstream construction of aluminum has been stable month-on-month during the week, and overseas demand has not been quickly converted into new orders.
Lead, with the end of this delivery, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has returned to more than 40,000 tons, from the correlation between inventory and prices measured by SMM before, lead is the relative fundamental pricing variety, we believe that this round of rise depends on the macro environment and funds, follow-up attention to the operation of funds after the selection of futures to receive goods, as well as changes in the overall macro environment, and another concern about the pace of recovery of domestic lead battery consumption after the flood season. Recycled lead, on the one hand, considering the decline in lead prices, the current profits of recycled lead refineries are compressed to a minimum, and their production enthusiasm may be suppressed. At present, some refineries are afraid of high and careful mining of waste batteries, but on the other hand, the peak season for battery replacement has not yet arrived. The supply of waste batteries has always been tight, coupled with the weather in Anhui, Guizhou and other places, which makes it more difficult to recover waste batteries. It is expected that the price of waste batteries will be slightly reduced next week.
"check details: [SMM Weekly selection] lead ingot inventory returns to more than 40, 000 tons need to pay attention to the pace of recovery of domestic lead battery consumption.
Zinc, as far as Shanghai zinc is concerned, fell after the general rise of non-ferrous metals last week, the positive mood in the market dissipated, and Shanghai zinc returned to the fundamentals. As far as next week is concerned, the supply side of the market is still under pressure from the increment of domestic zinc ingots. From next week, due to the enterprise target requirements, Shaanxi zinc industry and Hanzhong zinc industry two smelters will try their best to achieve full capacity production to meet the target. At the same time, domestic processing fees have stopped falling and rebounded, greatly boosting the production willingness of smelters, superimposed on the completion of maintenance of most smelters in the first half of the year, and it is expected that the follow-up supply may still increase month-on-month. On the import side, due to the less optimistic import price ratio and the slow appreciation of the superimposed RMB, it is expected that the import window will still be difficult to open in the short term. In addition to a small number of long single imported zinc inflows, it is expected that the amount of imported zinc will be limited next week. On the consumer side, due to the previous large increase in zinc prices, until last week, downstream enterprises are still mainly wait-and-see, not just not willing to buy, mostly to consume the current inventory of raw materials and finished products, it is expected that there will be more purchases and replenishment this week.
"check details: [SMM Weekly report selected] Mine overhaul affects the release of zinc ore. It is expected that the increase in processing fees in the second half of the year will be limited.
In terms of nickel, the recent market is greatly affected by the capital side. Although metal prices began to be affected by the stock market on Thursday, there was also a sharp correction in metal prices, but they still maintained more gains since last week, and metal prices are still in a strong state under financial stimulus. Due to the lack of positive fundamentals, the room for nickel to continue to rise is limited, and heavy rains in Sulawesi, Indonesia, do not seem to have a significant impact on smelters at present, but the recent bull market with financial stimulus also needs to be cautiously bearish. It is expected that the high price of nickel will fluctuate next week, with 108000 yuan / ton in Shanghai nickel and 13150mi US $13700 / ton in Lunni.
"check details: [SMM Weekly selection] Nickel Sulfate factory inventory bottomed out. The recent quotation intention follows the rising period of nickel, but the price effect is limited.
Tin, last week Shanghai tin 2009 contract affected by the stock market at the beginning of the week, pulled up sharply, following the previous week to set an annual tin futures peak of 144570 yuan / ton. Subsequently, Sino-US trade problems had an impact on domestic investment sentiment, coupled with profit-taking in the stock market, the CSI 300 index fell 336.7 points in a row in 3 days, a cumulative decline of 6.9%, and the metal almost turned green. In the general environment, it is difficult to support tin trees in Shanghai, and it has been overcast for three days. However, the disk and fundamentals have a certain support, three days have not yet fallen below the one-day increase at the beginning of the week. Last week, Lun Xicheng Xiaoyang line, the physical part of the lower part received a 5-day moving average support. Although there is a downward atmosphere in the entire metal market, since July, the imported tin ore volume has decreased again, the refined tin import window has been closed, the tin supply end has decreased again, and the superimposed Yunnan collection and storage policy has landed, which is expected to provide some support to tin prices. The upper pressure level is expected to be around 144500 yuan / ton. Raw materials market, Myanmar announced on the 14th last week to extend immigration controls, imports of tin ore is expected to be in a relatively tight state this month, adding that Myanmar is in the rainy season, tin ore imports this month decreased by 200 Mel 300 tons compared with June. At present, the tin processing fee is still basically stable, due to the shortage of tin mine, there is a partial depression of the processing fee.
"check details: [selected SMM Weekly report] Myanmar's extended immigration control on imported tin ore is still relatively tight. Tin ore processing fees are basically stable.
In terms of black, threads rose nearly 0.1%, hot rolls faintly green, stainless steel fell nearly 0.5%, coke rose nearly 1.3%, coking coal rose nearly 0.2%, iron ore was flat, and the thread period was basically the same last week. It is strongly expected that Yuwei still exists, the state of the previous week continued at the beginning of the week, the high level of operation, and the current price is synchronized and stable. Then half a week, the macro data released by the National Bureau of Statistics were neutral and failed to further confirm that the market exceeded expectations. Coupled with the frequent torrential rains and flood season weather warnings from the Central Meteorological Station, the release of the demand side seemed to be a long way off again, while inventories continued to accumulate, market sentiment continued to cool, and current prices began to weaken. Last week, the current prices of hot rolls showed a trend of rising first and then falling. At the beginning of the week, the stock market soared, stimulating the whole capital market mood positive, black is to borrow the opportunity, take advantage of the wind. In particular, the violent rise in iron ore has led to a restless mood in the black futures market. Hot spot market closely follows the futures market, prices continue to rise, speculation and terminal procurement also have a small release. Then the performance of the continued stock market and black period market is not satisfactory, the spot market is affected by fear of heights, the turnover is also gradually weakening, and the price, in the game between traders and terminals, falls slightly.
"check details: [SMM Weekly selection] this week's price" up and down dilemma "follow-up hot roll" where is the way? "
Crude oil fell nearly 2.8% in the previous period, affected by weak economic data and signs that the recovery in consumption may be slowing, although the strength of the US stock market pushed oil prices back from their intraday lows. But a series of disappointing economic data also prevented crude oil futures from rising.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.1% and Shanghai silver rose nearly 0.4% as record-breaking cases of coronavirus infection in the United States increased uncertainty about the economic recovery and the renewed weakness of the US dollar also provided support for gold prices.
As of 09:40, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
Brief comments on SMM:
Copper: last Friday night, Lun Copper closed at 6437 US dollars / ton, up 0.42%. The trading volume was 11000 lots, and the long positions increased by 4759 to 319000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2009 contract closed at 51440 yuan / ton, up 0.06%. The trading volume was 42000 lots, and the short positions were reduced by 817 lots to 112000 lots. Copper prices remain volatile at night, with many empty forces intertwined, and the inner and outer plates are close to the five-day moving average to get the cross star. On the macro front, the new crown epidemic in the United States has intensified again, adding to the uncertainty about the economic recovery, as well as the escalating international tensions. CMX gold steadily rose above $1810 on Friday, reflecting a rebound in risk aversion. On the other hand, the disturbance on the supply side of copper continued to provide support for copper prices below, so copper prices were subject to shock consolidation on Friday. The situation is expected to continue, waiting for macro sentiment to improve. On the spot side, the willingness to purchase downstream increases after the market price is stable, and Shengshui is expected to continue to rise today. It is estimated that today Lun Copper 6400 won 6450 U.S. dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 51300 won 51700 yuan / ton. It is expected that the spot water will rise to 50 RMB80 / ton today.
Aluminum: last Friday Shanghai aluminum main contract opened at 14145 yuan / ton in the morning, opened below 14100 yuan / ton, low to 14015 yuan / ton, and then V-shaped rebound to wipe out all the decline in the morning; afternoon narrow fluctuations, shock range 14,090 14170 yuan / ton, finally closed at 14155 yuan / ton, trading volume reduced to 112000 hands, position reduced to 123000 hands, daily line entity Zhongyang, to recover some of the decline last Thursday. The total position in the Shanghai Aluminum Index decreased to 396000 lots, while the trading volume decreased to 259000 lots. Last Friday night trading Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14120 yuan / ton, opened with a volume of 14200 yuan / ton, and then continued to shock upward, as high as 14320 yuan / ton, and closed slightly at 14265 yuan / ton at the end of the day. Electrolytic aluminum has increased compared with the same month, but the spot inventory is still low, the fundamental support is solid and the macro mood has eased somewhat. Today, the main operating range of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to be 14000, 14400 yuan / ton.
Lead: last Friday, Shanghai lead opened at 14905 yuan / ton. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead weakened rapidly, reaching a low of 17,690 / ton, a technical break, and finally reported at 14720 yuan / ton, down 1.37%. Shanghai lead high close 5 consecutive overcast, technical breakage, short-term attention to the 40-day line support.
Zinc: last Friday, Shanghai zinc opened at 17850 yuan / ton. under the cooling of market optimism at the beginning of the session, the short positions were suppressed, and the center of gravity of Shanghai zinc quickly moved down to 17715 yuan / ton. Then, dragged down by the outer disk, Shanghai zinc concussion downward, probed down 17525 / ton, bulls entered for bargain, Shanghai zinc revised upward, the center of gravity slowly moved up to around 17605 yuan / ton, at the end of the market, the short positions gradually increased, and the center of gravity of Shanghai zinc decreased slightly to 17575 yuan / ton consolidation. The final close fell 17555 yuan / ton, down 270yuan / ton, down 1.51%, trading volume decreased to 62014 lots, position decreased by 2037 to 80027 lots. Last Friday, Shanghai zinc recorded a bald negative column, falling below the 10-day line support, 5-day moving average above the formation of suppression, MACD index positive column narrowed. In terms of fundamentals, processing fees have stopped falling and rebounded, boosting the production enthusiasm of smelters, mainly increasing production and loosening the supply end, while under the background of weakening the marginal consumption, zinc prices are high and profits of downstream enterprises are narrowing, which also affects production enthusiasm and lack of fundamental support. superimposed Sino-US trade frictions constantly, market risk aversion mood heats up, Shanghai zinc weak operation. The contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2008 is expected to operate within the range of 17400 Mel 17900 yuan per ton, and it is expected that domestic Shuangyan Zinc will rise 100 RMB120 per ton in the August contract.
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Nickel: the future market is greatly affected by the capital side. Although there has been a sharp correction in metal prices affected by the stock market last Thursday, they have maintained more gains since last week, and metal prices are still in a strong state under financial stimulus. Due to the lack of positive fundamentals, the room for nickel to continue to rise is limited, and the torrential rain in Sulawesi, Indonesia, does not seem to have a great impact on the smelter at present, but the recent bull market stimulated by capital also needs to be cautiously bearish. It is expected that this week 105000Mel 108000 yuan / ton, Lunni 13150Lok 13,700 US dollars / ton. Last Friday night trading Shanghai Nickel 2010 contract opened at 106390 yuan / ton, due to the day's volatility lower. Therefore, after the opening of Shanghai Nickel night trading, it was once again under short selling pressure. Shanghai Nickel gradually fell below the 106000 yuan / ton line, falling to 105500 yuan / ton near the 20-day moving average. After the bulls slightly increased their positions, Shanghai Nickel rose again but was still under pressure at 106000 yuan / ton. After that, the short pressure did not decrease, so that Shanghai Nickel continued to retreat to the 20-day moving average. After long positions were cut and left in late trading, Shanghai Nickel finally closed at 105110 yuan / ton, down 1710 yuan / ton, or 1.6%. The turnover was 436107 lots, and the position increased by 6091 lots to 139578 lots. The mid-pubic column was recorded in the night disk, the waist pierced the 20-day moving average, and the lower shadow line fell back to near the middle track of boll, which still had strong support. Today, we are concerned about whether Shanghai Nickel can recover the lost land after consolidation.
Tin: Shanghai tin trend: Shanghai tin main 2009 contract opened last Friday at 141200 yuan / ton, the highest 141310 yuan / ton, the lowest 140110 yuan / ton, closed at 140890 yuan / ton, down 310 yuan / ton, down 0.22%, the turnover of 20009 hands, 28141 positions decreased by 494 hands. Last Friday, the stock of the previous period was 3006 tons, an increase of 7 tons over the previous value. Last Friday, Shanghai tin opened at 141200 yuan / ton. After opening, it was mainly affected by bulls leaving the market. Shanghai tin jumped quickly to around 140500 yuan / ton, and continued to shock downward under the influence of short entry, hitting the lowest point of 140110 yuan / ton in the night market. After hitting the bottom, the short part of profit-taking rebounded somewhat, the mid-market climbed to a small peak of 141000 yuan / ton, then slightly fluctuated down, and then jumped down to 140140 yuan / ton, and then pulled up sharply. Closed at 140890 yuan / ton, showing a small Yin line, the physical part is located between the 10-day moving average and the 20-day moving average, and the upper shadow line is located near the 10-day moving average. The lower support level is expected to be around 140000 yuan / ton.
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