[SMM comment] the rising trend of the commodity market cools and the rise and fall of non-ferrous metals show the rise and fall of black minerals.

SMM7 March 14: the LME metal market was green this morning, with Lentong Len Zinc Nickel and Len lead down more than 1%. In the domestic market, non-ferrous metals are mixed. Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 1%, while Shanghai nickel and tin rose slightly.

For copper, a vote by Antofagasta at the Centinela copper mine in Chile on Monday showed that executives were more likely to strike after rejecting the pay deal. It is reported that 94.7% of the members are in favor of the strike, but before that, the government still needs a 10-day compulsory mediation. Celso Pardo, the union chairman of the Centinela copper mine, said this reflected the low wages Antofagasta offered its workers. He added that a strike would pose a threat to the sustainability of production as most of the executives at the mine were union members. The Centinela mine produced 276000 tons of copper in 2019.

In terms of aluminum, the average weighted operating rate of China's aluminum foil industry was 83.71% in June, down 0.15% from the previous month and 4.11% from a year earlier. The overall stability of the aluminum foil market in June is more stable than that in May, and the prosperity of the aluminum foil industry is higher than that of the strip industry. Aluminum foil enterprises reported that orders for air conditioning foil, food packaging foil and beer sealing foil performed better in June. Due to the increasing hot weather, the market demand for beer, beverage and air conditioning increased, and related foil orders increased, while feedback from tobacco foil, drug foil and electronic foil was mediocre. [SMM analysis] Air conditioning foil and food foil perform well and the operating rate of aluminum foil is maintained at more than 80% in June.

In terms of black, iron ore continued to rise, with futures hovering around 833 yuan / ton, while threaded hot rolls fell slightly. Recently, after the end of the fiscal year impulse of some mines in Australia, some ports are overhauled, and recent shipments may be expected to decline. Brazil is affected by the epidemic, and there is uncertainty in shipments, all of which are good for the iron ore market. At the same time, according to SMM data, although the inventory of imported ore at the port has rebounded for four consecutive weeks, the inventory at the six major ports of MNPJ has fallen to its lowest level since October last year, and traders are willing to keep selling at a higher price.

Crude oil fell more than 2% in the previous period. Tonight, OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report, and OPEC + held the (JTC) meeting of the joint technical committee of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries. At this time, the market is waiting for the direction of a later OPEC meeting, which is expected to recommend an increase in production. WTI crude oil futures fell in the short term, expanding to 2 per cent.

As of 09:40, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

Brief comments on SMM:

Copper: last night, Lun Copper closed at 6545.5 US dollars / ton, up 1.81%. The trading volume was 34000 lots, and the long positions increased by 2279 to 308000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2008 contract closed at 52750 yuan / ton, down 0.25%. The trading volume was 70000 lots, and the long positions were reduced by 1961 to 113000 lots. Lun copper began to recover after falling as low as $6504 / ton last night, quickly breaking the daily moving average, and weakening slightly back to near the daily average in late trading.

Aluminum: yesterday, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14650 yuan / ton in the morning, and quickly shot up after a slight adjustment, with a intraday high of 14860 yuan / ton; in the afternoon, it fluctuated in the range of 14700 won 14800 yuan / ton, finally closed at 14730 yuan / ton, the trading volume increased to 214000 hands, the position increased to 149000 hands, and the price center of gravity continued to move up. Shanghai aluminum futures held a total of 422000 lots, and the turnover increased to 435000 lots. The main force of Shanghai Aluminum opened slightly lower at 14675 yuan / ton in night trading, fluctuated narrowly around 14700 yuan / ton most of the time, pulled up slightly before the end of the day and closed at 14730 yuan / ton. There is ample liquidity in the macro market, aluminum ingots are not obviously accumulated, inventory warehouse receipts are relatively low, and the spot side supports aluminum prices. It is expected that the main operating range of Shanghai aluminum today is 14500 Mel 14900 yuan / ton.

Zinc: overnight, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 18070 yuan / ton, entered the market at the beginning of the session, Shanghai zinc briefly fell to a low of 17975 yuan / ton, led by the strength of the outer disk, Shanghai zinc concussion upward, touching 18430 yuan / ton, short sellers gradually entered the market, Shanghai zinc center of gravity fine-tuned to 18300 yuan / ton narrow range fluctuation, Shanghai zinc slightly below the daily average line at the end of the day, and finally closed up at 18240 yuan / ton, up 355 yuan / ton, or 1.98%.

Nickel: the overnight Shanghai Nickel 10 contract opened at 108300 yuan / ton last night, and Shanghai Nickel continued the daytime upward trend. Shanghai Nickel mainly increased its positions sharply along the daily average line to 109300 yuan / ton, and the pressure fell back to 108500 yuan / ton. then the bulls continued to increase their positions close to the 110000 mark, bearing pressure on the narrow range of fluctuations at the pass until the close, and finally closed at 110000 yuan / ton, up 1490 yuan / ton or 1.37% over the previous trading day. The turnover was 469000 lots, and the position increased by 17000 lots to 163000 lots.

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