SMM5 March 20 News: the commodity market continues to make efforts, macro-positive main futures prices upward. A few days ago, the State Council announced the implementation of the quantitative indicators of the 2019 Government work report, all 38 quantitative indicators were completed, 2.3 trillion yuan in tax and fee reduction exceeded expectations, and a number of livelihood indicators exceeded the standards. it has laid the foundation for steady economic and social development in 2020. In this session, the market generally hopes to further implement the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction, and introduce more relevant policies [pay attention] under the impact of the epidemic, the support of the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction has become the focus of the two sessions.
Shanghai tin closed 3.17% higher than that of China's refined tin, which is expected to be limited by raw materials, and its output may remain on the low side in the short term. It is expected that refined tin production in May may be around 10500 tons. And recently, under the influence of positive factors such as the two sessions, short-term Shanghai tin may show a relatively strong trend. It is expected that the resistance level near 135000 yuan / ton will be tested above the Shanghai tin 2007 contract in the short term, and if it is effective, the next resistance will be around 136500 won 137,000 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper to maintain a weak rise, from the current round of copper price rebound power, supply-side tight logic to copper price support significantly weakened. With the relaxation of the epidemic blockade policy and the resumption of the supply of Peruvian copper mines at the raw material end, scrap copper dismantling enterprises in Malaysia have also gradually resumed work, and logistics in the two countries have also improved since mid-May. MM believes that copper fundamentals are gradually weakening, this round of domestic depot inflection point will come at the end of May, the import window will be closed, copper prices continue to weaken upward momentum, copper prices may enter the consolidation stage. At a time when the global economy is restarting, the macro economy as a whole is still optimistic, and the emergence of good news is still expected to drive copper prices upward in the short term. It is expected that Lun Copper will run at US $5460 per ton in May, while Shanghai Copper will run at RMB 43,000,000 per ton.
The black department regained its calmness compared with the previous two days, and the mine rose and fell. Steel due to yesterday's relaxation of production restrictions is now back, while iron ore to Hong Kong to continue to support ore prices. This afternoon, the Customs adjusted the supervision methods for the inspection of imported iron ores. according to SMM, it is understood that the Customs has previously adjusted the supervision methods for the inspection of imported iron ore, such as "release first and then inspection". This time, the overall impact on iron ore import is limited, mainly by optimizing the inspection methods and canceling batch-by-batch sampling inspection, which makes it more convenient for ore import enterprises. Moreover, the announcement will come into effect on June 1, 2020. at that time, there will be a more specific impact. SMM will continue to follow up. "[SMM brief Review] Customs adjustment of inspection and supervision of imported iron ore has limited impact on imported iron ore.
Crude oil fell 1.21% in the previous period. International oil prices held steady on Wednesday as concerns about the economic impact of a coronavirus pandemic limited gains despite signs of rising demand and falling U.S. crude oil stocks. Brent crude futures for July rose $0.1, or 0.3%, to $34.75 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) July crude oil futures fell 2 cents to $31.94 a barrel and closed 1 per cent higher. The June contract expired on Tuesday at $32.50 a barrel, up 2.1% on the WTI futures market to avoid a repeat of the chaos that occurred when the contract expired in May, when oil prices fell to negative levels.
As of today's day close:
Today's capital flow
Today, the market welcomes a huge amount of running water again, with nearly 1.8 billion funds pouring in. The two major sectors have benefited obviously, with precious metals absorbing more than 1.6 billion yuan. Some of the funds flowed out of gold and silver yesterday and then re-entered the market, ranking first in commodities with inflows of 700 million yuan and 960 million yuan respectively. The chemical sector is also favored by funds, inflow of nearly 1.2 billion yuan. Among them, the soaring PTA attracted 400 million yuan to enter the market, but the PP, which soared in late trading, flowed into 500 million yuan.
A brief comment on SMM analysts on May 20th
Copper: today, the main 2007 contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 43590 yuan / ton in the morning, and the bulls entered the market to drive up the copper price to 43740 yuan / ton, but the upward momentum was limited, and the copper price fluctuated for a short time around 43710 yuan / ton. Since then, bulls have made another effort to stack short positions one after another, and copper prices have fluctuated from 43690 yuan / ton to close at 43810 yuan / ton at noon. Copper prices continued to rise in early afternoon trading, surging to the highest point of the day, 43920 yuan / ton. At this time, the bulls made a profit and left the market, and the price of copper fell somewhat, and finally closed at 43730 yuan / ton. Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper increased its daily positions by 3840 to 109000, mainly by long positions; trading volume decreased by 11000 to 82000; and Shanghai Copper 06 reduced its positions by 4781 to 96000, mainly by short positions. During the day, the rise in copper in Shanghai was mainly driven by the upward price of crude oil, and under the influence of the further improvement in the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil, the gains of US oil and cloth oil expanded today, thus driving the rise of copper prices. The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve and the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan are about to begin, and the market is betting that more economic stimulus policies will be launched; the domestic "two sessions" are about to be held, and the market is looking forward to more favorable policies. Market risk appetite was boosted, pushing copper prices above the 44000 mark. At present, the price of copper in Shanghai is up, and the KDJ is expanding. From a technical point of view, there is still room for copper prices to rise. In the evening, wait for the outer disk guidelines to test whether Shanghai Copper can stand at the 44000 yuan / ton mark.
Aluminum: Shanghai Aluminum's main 2007 contract opened at 12830 yuan / ton in the morning, the early shock uplink briefly touched 12925 yuan / ton, then sank slightly to around 12850 yuan / ton, and then the second wave of upside in the second trading phase began. The high point finally reached 12935 yuan / ton, the end of the day sank, closing at 12875 yuan / ton, the daily trading volume closed flat, the trading volume decreased by 40162 to 91086, the position increased by 2960 to 160000, and closed at the Xiaoyang line, recording Liulianyang. The center of gravity is above all moving averages. Judging from the trend of the K-line, there is still resistance at the Wansan pass above, and the center of gravity on the Yang line goes up slowly, touching the Brin upper trajectory. It is expected to continue to explore the size of the upper space at night. Pay attention to market trading sentiment and changes in long short positions at night.
Lead: during the day, the main 2007 contract of Shanghai lead opened at 14085 yuan / tonne. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead briefly fell to 13885 yuan / tonne. Later, due to strong support at the Wansi pass, Shanghai lead rose back to 14075 yuan / ton first-line shock. During this period, it once hit an intraday high of 14145 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 14090 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 0.71%. The position increased by 3111 hands to 20876 hands. Shanghai lead closed at four Lianyang, standing on ten thousand full digits, each moving average showed a long arrangement, and maintained the upward trend, in the case of the fundamental stalemate, the domestic macro environment turned warm, long funds or want to take advantage of the opportunity to push up the price of lead, but the fundamentals are difficult to give an effective boost, careful to chase more at night.
Zinc: within the day, the main 2007 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 16795 yuan / ton, and at the beginning of the session, the long-short game deadlocked, and the zinc period was arranged and operated around the daily average line of 16820 yuan / ton, and then the positions were reduced alternately, and zinc recorded a V-word down of 16725 yuan / ton. The hindered daily average fell slowly again. The final closing price was 16750 yuan / ton, the trading volume decreased by 31813 to 110000 lots, and the position decreased by 2185 lots to 114000 lots. There is no new story about zinc fundamentals, and the weak operation of zinc may be adjusted downwards again in the evening, because of the long shadow and small negative column of zinc, the action is obviously insufficient, there is no new story about zinc fundamentals, and the operation of zinc is weak at night.
Updating.
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Registration contact: Lu Qingping, Iron and Steel Division of SMM
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