(under review) [selected SMM monthly report] Nickel price is expected to continue to be strong and volatile, but there is limited room for further upside in the short term.

"SMM Nickel Industry chain monthly report", the monthly report SMM will select one of the hot topics, prices, market or major changes in the industry chain information published for your reference.

In terms of fundamentals, due to the improvement in consumption and the contraction of some supply links in the second quarter, the balance between supply and demand as a whole was significantly improved compared with the first quarter, and a small amount of storage could be achieved. However, at present, the good balance sheet of primary nickel depends very much on the consumption of stainless steel and the contraction of domestic nickel pig iron, while in the case of pure nickel, its consumption is relatively scattered downstream, and the consumption of other aspects is worse than that of stainless steel plate. The recovery of consumption is weaker than that of nickel pig iron, and it still takes time to wait for consumption to pick up. In view of the fact that the epidemic situation in overseas areas is still severe, but the intention to resume production is strong, and the future trend is good, there is still some potential for nickel price performance, and the current price may be on the center of gravity axis of the annual average price.

The following is an excerpt from the monthly report of the SMM nickel industry chain:

In April 2020, the national output of electrolytic nickel was 14400 tons, down 7.63 percent from the previous month, an increase of 14.55 percent over the same period last year. The decrease in production in April was mainly due to the scheduling and production of some domestic smelters in accordance with the financial monthly cycle. Although the scheduling and completion of the manufacturers did not change much in March and April, after being converted into natural monthly production, the amount taken into account in April was lower than that of the previous month. At present, most of the domestic smelters are in good condition: Gansu smelters have steadily completed the scheduling plan with a monthly output of 13000 tons in the near future; the monthly output of Xinjiang smelter has increased slightly compared with the first quarter and is expected to remain stable next month; the output of electrolytic nickel in Jilin and Shandong smelters is also stable, while the output of Tianjin smelter has not changed much this month, but in the later stage, due to raw material costs and profits, the scheduling may be gradually reduced. The electrolytic nickel production line of Guangxi smelter is still suspended. In May, the domestic production of electrolytic nickel is estimated to be 15100 tons. Although the overseas raw materials of individual enterprises have been affected, the domestic production environment is improving, and nickel prices are rebounding, and overall domestic production will remain stable.

"Click to view SMM nickel packets

Review and Prospect Analysis of stainless Steel

In April, enterprises across the country gradually resumed normal production, the overall market consumption improved, and the market demand for stainless steel increased significantly. On the one hand, due to the resumption of production, downstream construction, consumer demand increased; on the other hand, the continuous release of pre-orders, so that market demand has been maintained. The increase in demand and the decrease in the output of the previous stainless steel plant led to a certain decline in the social inventory of stainless steel in April, from a high of 1.12 million tons at the end of March to 930000 tons. Prices have rebounded since mid-April, with the price of 304 cold rolling rising by an average of 700 yuan / ton per month. In terms of the closing price of steel mills, Qingshan Steel Plant has been increasing its trading price since April 13. the latest price of cold-rolled four-foot plate, hot-rolled plate and hot-rolled narrow strip are quoted at 13100 yuan / ton, 12800 yuan / ton and 12600 yuan / ton, respectively. the price is 1100 yuan / ton higher than that in mid-April.

After the May Day holiday, the price of stainless steel continued its upward trend in April. As of May 12, the price of 304 cold-rolled coil was 700 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. At present, the trend of stainless steel is strong. On the one hand, the transaction situation in May is slightly weaker than that in April, but the overall situation is relatively stable. On the other hand, the rising cost of raw materials is related to the attitude of steel mills or has a certain support to the price. However, the trend of stainless steel in the later stage still needs to look at the actual demand downstream. If the demand remains stable in the later stage and there is no significant decline in the price of 304 stainless steel, the price of 304 stainless steel may still be on the strong side.

"apply for free access to the SMM metal industry chain database