[SMM analysis] there is still room for reduction in zinc processing fees affected by the epidemic.

SMM4, 12 March:

近期锌精矿加工费开始迅速下挫，主因疫情在全球的扩散，基于这一特殊事件带来的贸易流通受阻令短期基本面出现利好改善，但并未从根本上扭转长期锌精矿过剩的事实。
从国内来看，因疫情影响下锌价暴力下挫，触及部分低品位小产能高成本私人中小型矿山的成本线，在节后选择延后恢复生产的时间；而成本较低现金流相对充裕的大型矿山，在3月已经基本恢复了正常生产水平，但锌价下挫过快同时加工费调整缓慢，企业销售意愿不强，除部分已签订长期供销合同的矿山外，惜售控货成为国内矿山销售常态，也是对矿端利润分配不均的变相反抗，这导致转入3月后冶炼厂采购难度迅速扩大，冶炼厂被动下调加工费重构矿端平衡。

From overseas, the epidemic has not yet come to an end, and there is little room to relax all the efforts made by countries to prevent and control the epidemic. The list of participants in the "national blockade", "state emergency" or similar measures continues to increase, which means that the probability of zinc foreign trade will remain light, but from the ingot end which is not profit-driven to the end of the mine. From the perspective of China's import structure, Australia and Peru are China's main trading partners, Peru's border blockade was further postponed to April 26, some of its domestic mining enterprises announced that they will continue to stop operation and wait for a change; At present, Australia has not heard the news that any enterprises have announced that the epidemic has affected production, but due to the severity of the epidemic, the ports of departure and transit are expected to be restricted to a certain extent. At present, the rapid decline in the volume of offers in the foreign trade market can be used as evidence, which means that the high probability of overseas supplies to China will be absent within 1-3 months.

At present, zinc prices have been expected to be repaired, and some of the domestic mining enterprises have returned to normal, which will temporarily alleviate the procurement pressure of smelters, but because of the loose fundamentals of the overall ore end, the level of raw material inventory of smelters is not high and the degree of dependence on imported mines is increasing at the same time, which means that after losing the support of imported mines, smelters will make more compromises in terms of processing fees.

"Click to sign up for SMM" 2020 (15th) lead and Zinc Summit

Scan the QR code to sign up for the lead and zinc summit and fill in the personal information at the end of the page, and the conference staff will contact you later!