[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]

On the 13th of SMM6,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: the US fiscal deficit has widened again, and there is no bright spot in CPI after the May quarter adjustment, which is expected to increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:

Shanghai: the monthly difference expands again, the spot discount falls further, subject to the delivery conditions, the transaction difference between the market can do warehouse receipt and the same brand quotation is gradually clear, the early market quotation is concentrated in the discount 110-discount 100 yuan / ton, can do warehouse receipt goods source transaction is relatively active, other brands lack of attention, long order trading between traders to the net average price of 10 to 20 yuan / ton transaction is relatively active, the price of long orders between traders to the net average price of 10 to 20 yuan / ton, the transaction is relatively active, the price of the same brand is gradually clear, the early market quotation is concentrated in the discount 110-100 yuan / ton, and the source of warehouse receipt is relatively active. In the second trading period, the quotation was further reduced by 10 to 20 yuan / ton; Due to the increase in the supply of goods from the downstream to the factory, the actual consumption participation in the lower reaches of the Shanghai stock market is relatively weak, with delivery and long order transactions leading among traders, and some holders leave the market to wait and see, and the overall trading is still dull. Guangdong: refinery normal shipment, the market continues yesterday, the transaction is mainly deliverable source, reported to Shanghai zinc 1907 contract rising water 500 510yuan / ton, the holder shipment realization enthusiasm is also relatively high, the market supply is more sufficient, the early transaction to liter water 500yuan / ton is the main, then after the monthly difference is slightly expanded, the holder follows the price adjustment, the transaction rises after the sticker water is mostly 510520yuan / ton, after the market supply is more abundant, the holder follows the price adjustment, the transaction rises after the sticker water is mostly 510520yuan / ton, Downstream transactions are still light, there are few inquiries, the actual consumption is still poor, today's transactions are mainly contributed by traders, the transaction volume is basically the same yesterday. Tianjin: normal shipment of refineries, the market supply of goods is more abundant. The holder took the initiative to expand the discount and actively ship the goods. In the morning, the quotation was concentrated around the discount of 200-100 yuan / ton for the 06 contract, and some of the holders reported that the premium for the 07 contract was around 400 yuan / ton, which is basically equivalent to the discount of 170 yuan / ton for the 06 contract. However, the market fear of falling mood intertwined, mainly to the official website, inquiry and transaction situation significantly weakened, today's market transaction volume significantly less, to low-cost brands such as macro lark trading, the overall market trading situation cooled again yesterday. Zinc price: within the day, zinc negative, under the shadow line under the 5, 10-day moving average support, with the American finger down, Lun zinc back up finishing, the current Lun zinc fundamentals change little, mainly by the macro mood-led, daily attention to the 5-day moving average support; Shanghai zinc positive, the lower 5, 20 days EMA to form a certain support, but the cumulative increase in warehouse receipts, the follow-up space is still limited. Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2500-2550 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1908 contract or run in the vicinity of 20300-20800 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic increase by 50.