SMM10 26 June news:
This week, the euro zone composite PMI index refreshed a one-year low, coupled with Brexit and other factors, the dollar index rose one after another, even refreshing a two-month high of 96.7 on Thursday, and basic metals basically showed a downward trend. However, domestic A shares rallied under the voice of official support, and market bulls picked up confidence. SMMI recovered some of its losses over the weekend, falling 0. 04 per cent over the week. The leading drop in the week was nickel, which fell 0.62% in SMMI.Ni, US $12000 per ton in London and 100000 yuan in Shanghai. The increase in position once fell by nearly 4%, but the spot rise was high and the transaction was positive on the low side. Shanghai copper fell below 50, 000 yuan, spot discount expanded all the way, supply exceeded demand, SMMI.Cu fell 0.31 per cent. Lead and tin performed against the trend within the week. Shanghai tin first developed and then suppressed, the discount was strong and stable, SMMI.SN rose 0.69% per week. Shanghai lead rose 2 per cent to more than 18500 yuan per tonne, while SMMI.Pb rose 0.68 per cent. Aluminum prices are low, traders are positive, and SMMI.Al is up 0.28 per cent a week. Lun Zinc broke through US $2700 per ton in the week, Shanghai zinc rose first and then suppressed, once rushed up 22500 yuan / ton, spot rising water all the way down to less than 100 yuan, SMMI.Zn rose 0.13 per cent per week. The performance of basic metals is divided this week, and the risk appetite may be more obvious in the concentration of domestic and foreign economic data at the end of next week, and the basic metals will also show more wide fluctuations.
Copper: the bronze has been falling all the way this week. At the beginning of the week, the center of gravity of Lun Copper rose sharply, closing with a long shadow line, breaking through the $6300 / ton mark and climbing to $6331.5 / ton, followed by the Brexit negotiations and the uncertainty of the Italian budget xing,. Investors' risk aversion continued to ferment, and the dollar index was boosted, with copper prices under pressure as low as $6148 per ton, below the $6200 / ton mark, and the center of gravity falling below the middle track of the Brin track. In the middle of the week, Germany, France, the euro zone released a series of markit manufacturing PMI data that fell short of expectations, and the US index strongly broke through the 96 mark, rising 96.7, recording a new high in nearly two months. In addition, due to the release of the LME inventory report, Copper stocks have shown inventory growth for 2 days in the week. Lun Copper fell again under pressure, the center of gravity fell again, the US dollar index remained strong over the weekend, and the center of gravity of Lun Copper fell again, falling to US $6113.5 per ton. Keep the $6100 / ton mark for the time being. Within the week, increase and reduce positions, weekly decline of 1.17%, short positions mainly.
Copper stepped back in Shanghai this week. At the beginning of the week, due to the recovery and rise of A shares, which boosted bulls' confidence, the main force of Shanghai Copper closed in the sun and broke through the half-year line by 50760 yuan / ton, but with the sharp drop in Lun Copper, the center of gravity of Shanghai Copper fell one after another, breaking the 20-day moving average, as low as 49360 yuan per ton. Straight to the 60-day moving average, fortunately Brin track middle rail support, within the week, the increase in positions, weekly decline of 0.5%, short positions mainly.
On the spot side, rising water has been falling all the way this week. As this week involves the final delivery of this month's long order, at the beginning of the week, the holder is unwilling to overlower the quotation, and the willingness to push up the price is still strong. In the face of Monday's rebound on the disk surface and the spot's willingness to lift the goods on the water, the willingness to pick up the goods is extremely low. The spot offer discount of 20 yuan per ton to 30 yuan per ton of water continued to fall, but the market consumption still showed no sign of improvement, did not show the expected replenishment on the low, the activity of the trade market was also difficult to improve, and the delivery of long orders was nearing the end. Downstream and traders in the disk is not clear under the circumstances to stop and wait and see, holders take the opportunity to increase the exchange of goods, holders take the initiative to lower quotations, the market deduction of discount rapid decline state. Over the weekend, as most of the market turned to next month's invoices, the discount was expanded to 120 yuan per ton to 70 yuan per ton, while the holder kept selling the goods for cash, but downstream and traders stopped to wait and see.
Aluminum: this week, Lun Aluminum took a unilateral downward path, and its performance was weaker than that of Shanghai Aluminum. Overseas alumina prices have remained low this week and Lunal lacks an upward driver amid continued weakness in overseas demand. In addition, the US dollar rose sharply, the basic metals came under pressure, and Lunal went down step by step. Near the weekend, there was news that the Hydro red mud dam ban had been lifted, indicating that there was growing hope that it would resume production to 100%. There is room for alumina prices to fall further. As a result of this, Lun Aluminum was weak, recording a minimum of US $1981 per tonne, and brushing the lowest level in the last six months, recording seven consecutive negatives. As of 17:25 on Friday, Lun Aluminum closed at US $1985 per ton, and this week's trading volume fell 27045 hands to 43843 hands. Position increased by 3727 hands to 654000 hands, weekly KDJ line downward momentum is obvious, is expected to step back next week more than 2000 US dollars / ton there is some pressure.
Shanghai aluminum company 1812 contract this week, but has not recovered last week's decline. At the beginning of the week, the four top executives in the financial sector collectively expressed their support for the stock market, which eventually led to a sharp rise in the stock market, commodities were driven, non-ferrous metal futures rose to varying degrees, and Shanghai Aluminum took advantage of the opportunity to gain a small rise. Subsequently, it was reported that the Xinfa Alumina Plant in Jiao Kou, Shanxi Province, affected part of the output due to the maintenance of electric power, and then Dongxing, Lin Feng and other electrolytic aluminum plants issued production reduction arrangements one after another. Stimulated by the news of production reduction, aluminum prices did not follow the weakening pace of the outer market, on the contrary, they showed a recovery. Prices rose gradually and recorded their highest price in a week of 14310 yuan per ton on Thursday night. However, near the weekend, after the good news in the early period was digested by the market, the bearish factors gradually revealed that the US dollar index was hanging high at 96, the outer metal was floating green, and the announcement of the autumn and winter production restrictions in some superimposed areas clearly showed that the production restrictions were not as strong as last year. The overall macro atmosphere is not good, Shanghai aluminum affected by the empty atmosphere, recorded a negative line on Friday, giving up most of the previous days, down 50 yuan / ton, but compared with other metals, 0.35% of the decline is relatively small. By the end of trading on Friday, the K line closed at 14170 yuan per ton this week, trading volume decreased by 6792 hands to 808000 hands, and position volume increased by 606 hands to 235000 hands, and the weekly MACD line green column became longer. Next week, we will continue to pay attention to the official documents on production restrictions in autumn and winter issued by other provinces and cities, the pace of production reduction in electrolytic aluminum plants, and the increase and decrease of social aluminum ingots inventory.
Spot market, the spot price this week with the aluminum price first raise and then suppress. The transaction price in Wuxi in Shanghai is between 14060 and 14200 yuan per ton, while that in Hangzhou is between 14100 and 14220 yuan per ton. This week, the discount is between 70 yuan and 40 yuan per ton. On the whole, this week, the lower reaches of East China is basically on-demand procurement, the holder shipment is more active, middlemen near the weekend for the delivery of long orders and get ticketed aluminum ingots, the willingness to pick up the goods has become stronger. The overall transaction in the northern region this week is average, Henan due to the reduction of aluminum factory shipments discount narrower than usual. The deal as a whole this week was fine.
Lead: this week Lun lead stopped falling and stabilized, long and short basically in the $2000 first-line game, daily trading volume narrowed, market activity significantly reduced. At the beginning of the week, Lun lead tried to break through the upward trend, climbing to US $2027.5 per ton at one time. However, the US Index was strong, and the high level of Lun lead fell back under pressure. In the next few days, the US Index broke through the platform and went up, coming out of a wave of bulls and approaching the previous high of US $96.984. Lun lead fluctuated in a narrow range of $2000, fluctuating no more than $30 a tonne, and trading was light, rising 0.13 per cent a week to $1998 a tonne as of Friday.
This week, the Shanghai lead 1812 contract hit low and rose, re-standing on the moving average, after two days of multi-head running, two days of cumulative increase of more than 5000 hands, the market began to enter the long trading logic. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead stopped falling and stabilized, during which every time it hit the 10,000 barrier, off-site funds actively entered the market, and the top eight support gave the market strong confidence, and in the next two days, Shanghai lead was stimulated by the news that Henan environmental protection inspectors started in an all-round way and some renewable refineries cut production due to cost problems, broke through the suppression of the platform and the 5-10-day line, and once rose to 18510 yuan per ton, and the market bullish mood was ignited. As of 14-50 on Friday, Shanghai lead was at 18475 yuan per ton, up 2.04 per cent a week.
This week, the mainstream trading range of spot lead is 18400 to 18750 yuan per ton. According to SMM, at the beginning of the week, due to the expectation of the imminent release of new production capacity in the renewable lead market, refineries expanded discount shipments one after another, and left the factory with an average discount price of more than 300 yuan per ton for SMM1# electrolytic lead, and then reduced and stopped production because of the expansion of losses. As a result, the supply of refined lead is tight, and as of Friday, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic lead discount is more than 200 yuan / ton, and there are still 300 yuan / ton in a few areas. Primary lead market refinery production is normal, bulk quotation to maintain the average price of SMM1# electrolytic lead discount 100 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton water; In terms of trade market, due to the problem of cost, some holders have a limited increase in water price, about 150yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 1811 contract, but the transaction is difficult. Only some of the water increase is less than 100yuan / ton. On the other hand, the consumption of lead-acid battery market has gradually weakened, but due to the low inventory of finished products, there is no significant change in the start-up situation, but the purchase of recycled lead with better price is more inclined to the purchase of recycled lead.
Zinc: the US data performed better this week, but the ECB meeting expected no bright spots. The US dollar itself has been able to act. Coupled with the continuing tension in international relations, the US index, as a safe haven asset, has shown a strong performance. It has jumped to a high value of 96.3 one after another. Because the fundamental change is not big, the marginal news has a significant impact on zinc prices, this week, the impact of high zinc, the upward pressure is prominent. At the beginning of the week, the market mood was more optimistic, with the concussion of zinc rising by US $2674.5 per tonne, followed by a strong upward pressure on the US index and giving up all its gains. Later, boosted by the news that zinc ingot supply in Asia is expected to decrease, zinc prices rose again. And directly up through the US $2700 / ton integer gate, refreshing the week's high to US $2721 / ton, followed by the news that the positive stimulus has dissipated, the US Index has been pulled up again, catalytic bulls to stop profit and leave the game, and the concussion of zinc and Lun has gone down. In the absence of more good news support, zinc prices fell steeply as the US index rose further, refreshing a week low of $2610 a tonne. As of Friday, the trading volume of Lun Zinc decreased by about 22925 hands to about 211000 hands, and the position increased by about 8628 hands to about 273000 hands.
This week, fiscal and monetary policy at the same time, the market risk preference has warmed up, but the direct good news stimulus is limited, the Shanghai zinc main platform consolidation pattern has not been effectively broken, the previous high of 22585 still constitutes suppression. At the beginning of the week, many sectors expressed solidarity with the financial markets, and the futures market was also boosted to make up for Friday's decline, around 22000 yuan / ton integer consolidation, followed by a strong boost from the expected decline in supply in Asia against a background of low inventories. The upward trend of Shanghai zinc shock recorded a high of 22575 yuan / ton, which has not yet broken the previous high suppression, while the market optimism has dissipated. The game of the near and distant trend of zinc price has shown a slight stalemate, and the zinc price shock has fallen for two consecutive times to spit out most of the increases. Still running on the consolidation platform. As of Friday, the trading volume of Lun Zinc was reduced by about 141000 hands to about 434.7 hands, and the position was reduced by about 13616 hands to about 449000 hands.
This week, the contract between 0 # zinc and Shanghai zinc 1811 in Shanghai market has changed from 180 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton. Due to the tight amount of deflation, Shuangyan changed from 500 yuan to 450 yuan per ton of water in October to 420 to 450 yuan per ton of water rising from 500 yuan per ton to 420 yuan per ton in October. The imported KZ, SMC, Spain, Russia, Brazil than 0 # domestic zinc discount 140-discount 180 yuan / ton or so narrowed to 80-discount water about 50 yuan / ton. The normal shipment of the smelter this week, as the last trading week of the long order, returned at the beginning of the week, the holder traders strongly pushed up the price, and the spot quotation reversed from 130 to 150 yuan / ton to 200 to 220 yuan / ton, with the date pushed forward to the deadline of the long order. The demand among traders has gradually weakened, the market bargaining power has tilted to the receiver, and the spot water has steadily fallen back to about 50 to 70 yuan per ton, while the zinc price has not fluctuated much this week, coupled with the steady narrowing of the price gap between imports and domestic prices. Import zinc price advantage gradually lost, so that domestic just xing brand price transaction warmer, downstream procurement gradually returned to the normal pace, the overall transaction atmosphere this week further warmer than last week, downstream real consumption increased slightly compared with last week.
This week, the Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc main 1812 contract changed from 420 yuan / ton last week to 310 yuan / ton last week, narrowing by about 1812 yuan / ton. compared with the Shanghai stock market last week, the discount in Guangdong market has changed from 30 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton. The discount has been expanded by 20 yuan per ton. In this cycle, the center of gravity of zinc has shifted down, and the refineries have made normal shipments. The supply of goods in Guangdong market has been slightly abundant due to the outflow of warehouse receipts in the early stage. Traders have a positive delivery of goods, and on the demand side, at the beginning of the week, some traders have a certain demand for long orders and contribute to some transactions. However, some traders with demand intended to hold down the rising water because of more and less market demand, so the rising water pressure gradually went down, entering Wednesday, and the market demand for invoices for the current month gradually highlighted, which also led to some transactions. This week, the willingness to take goods downstream has improved with the decline of the disk, but it is still more cautious, mainly based on rigid demand procurement. Overall, the market trading atmosphere this week was better than last week, and the transaction volume was also slightly higher than last week.
This week, the Tianjin market 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1811 contract flat water to Shengshui 50 yuan / ton, from last Friday's discount 20 yuan / ton to Shengshui 20 yuan / ton, The price difference between Tianjin and Shanghai narrowed from 120 yuan per ton on Friday to 20 yuan per ton. This week, the refineries shipped normally, and some of the shippers continued to actively ship the goods, maintaining a relatively low water rise, while some traders, due to the lower water rise, left the market to wait and see, the market volume was relatively slightly tightened, and the circulation brands became less. Then the rising water appeared slightly upward; Consumption, whenever the market down, absolute prices decline, enterprise procurement positive xing better, but more on-demand procurement this week Tianjin inventory fell slightly, the overall transaction is basically the same as last week.
Tin: Lunxi moved up this week, hitting as high as $19415 a tonne from Monday to Wednesday, but lost to a strong rise in the dollar in the second half of the week. Lunxi fell back under pressure to close Thursday at $19325 a tonne, up $275a tonne from last Thursday. Within the week, the total transaction of more than 1700 hands increased by 319 hands, the position of 15379 hands decreased by more than 60 hands. Brexit and the Italian budget incident are still not making progress, coupled with the lack of bright spots in the European Central Bank resolution, the pound and the euro continue to come under pressure, and the continued weakness of European currencies has helped the dollar rise strongly this week. Thursday's peak hit 96.7, the highest since mid-August. The high dollar company gave Lensi little momentum to rise, with resistance above $19400 a tonne.
This week, the main tin 1901 contract in Shanghai rose only slightly at the beginning of the week, and the center of gravity of tin in Shanghai continued to decline due to profit bulls from Wednesday, closing 147480 yuan per ton on Friday, up 630 yuan per ton from Friday. The total number of transactions increased by 12658 hands over last week, and the position of 31400 hands decreased by 1210 hands compared with last week. Recently, the spot supply in Shanghai tin market exceeds the demand, and the basic factors make the spot lack enough action energy.
Spot prices in Shanghai and tin rose to 145500-148000 yuan / ton on Tuesday, but then fell to 145000-147500 yuan / ton on Friday as the focus of the futures price fell, with the average price up 1000 yuan / ton from Friday to 145000-147500 yuan / ton, the spot price in Shanghai and tin rose to 145000-148000 yuan / ton on Tuesday, as the focus of the futures price fell to 145000-147500 yuan / ton on Friday. Compared with last week, the discount range of Yunxi sets continues to shrink, the market supply is tight, this week the mainstream discount maintained at 500 to 600 yuan / ton; Ordinary cloud character and small brand are relatively stable, Yunheng is out of production due to equipment maintenance, market supply shortage, other cloud word mainstream discount 1300 to 2000 yuan / ton, small brand discount 220 to 2500 yuan / ton. In addition, some fixed pricing small brands are sold around 1445000 to 145000 yuan / ton, which is relatively favored downstream. In the near future, the spot market discount is relatively strong, but transactions are mostly concentrated in low-cost resources, downstream rigid demand and set demand are relatively weak.
Nickel: the center of gravity of nickel has been falling this week. Mainly because the macro environment is poor, the investment atmosphere is cautious, and the dollar trend is strong, restrain the colored color to a certain extent. Nickel fell below the $12000 / tonne mark to its lowest level since 2018. As of 18:38, the week's K line closed at the big shade line, down 4.61 percent at $11905 a tonne. Trading volume decreased by 4133 to 36000, while position increased by 14.11 million to 221000.
The domestic Shanghai nickel center of gravity also continued to leak, falling below the 100000 mark on Friday. Among them, it is mainly due to the expected release of new production capacity in advance by a large nickel-iron plant in East China, and the market has heard that a large integrated steel plant in East China will begin to sell nickel pig iron in November, and the supply of nickel pig iron is increasing. There are signs of weakness in downstream consumption and a crackdown on exports at the end of the year, mainly because tariffs of 200 billion will rise from 10 per cent to 25 per cent early next year. The supply and demand side of nickel became weak, and there was no other good support, short funds entered and established positions, resulting in the continuous leakage of domestic Shanghai nickel, breaking the 100000 barrier. As of Friday morning, the week K line closed at the big shade line, down 3.99% at 99310 yuan / ton. Trading volume increased by 454000 hands to 3.268 million hands, and position volume increased by 96000 hands to 364000 hands.
Spot market, this week Russia nickel than Wuxi 1811 contract week an average rise of 320 yuan / ton, compared with last week a small expansion of 80 yuan / ton, the main disk surface continues to decline, and steel mills in the low replenishment active. This week, Jinchuan nickel is about 6350 yuan / ton higher than Wuxi 1811 contract week, 350 yuan / ton more than last week. Mainly due to the spot market Jinchuan nickel shortage again, there has been no incremental inflow into the market recently, and this week's low trading is better. Jinchuan rising water is still high, Jinchuan, Russia nickel price gap expanded from 5750 yuan / ton last week to about 6000 yuan / ton. In terms of transaction, in the first half of this week, the price only slightly fell, downstream take goods in general, only part of the transaction, more in the wait and see. Starting Thursday, the nickel price fell to around 101000, and the downstream steel mills actively took the stock warehouse, and the transaction was very good. However, after the nickel price fell below 100000 on Friday, the downstream did not actively take the goods, fell below the strong support, the downstream mentality is also more in wait and see if it will continue to fall. The transaction of nickel in Jinchuan this week improved compared with last week, mainly due to the falling price of nickel. The overall deal this week was better than last week. Shanghai Jinchuan nickel offer 108000 yuan / ton, down 700 yuan / ton from last week.
