Macro Roundup (Apr 12)

SHANGHAI, Apr 12 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

Weighed down by potential US military action in Syria, the US dollar index edged down slightly and hovered around 89.5, but received some support from the Fed’s March meeting.

The Syria factor also depressed base metals except for LME aluminium. LME aluminium hit a high since January 24 as mining company Glencore will declare force majeure on some supplies of aluminium, days after the US imposed sanctions on Russian aluminium giant Rusal.

China's factory and consumer inflation slowed in March. The producer price index (PPI) rose 3.1% in March from a year earlier, below the expected 3.3% and February’s 3.7%. Growth was limited by nonmetallic mineral products, ferrous, oil and coal processing, oil and gas exploitation and nonferrous industries.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.1% in March year on year, below the expected 2.6%. The figure dipped from February's gain of 2.9% as the buoyance from the Chinese New Year holiday eased.

US CPI increased 2.4% year on year, matching forecasts, but decreased 0.1% month on month as gasoline prices fell. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, went up 0.2% from February, and up 2.1% from a year earlier, above February’s 1.8%. The firm core inflation strengthened the Fed’s stance that inflation is slowing as it approaches the expected 2%.

Inventories of US crude oil during the week ended April 6 jumped by 3.31 million barrels as imports surged, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline inventories inched up 458,000 barrels and crude oil inventories in Cushing rose by 1.13 million barrels.

Day ahead

The US' March imports price index and its weekly unemployment claims are two key factors to watch today.

The US dollar is likely to remain weak although the minutes of the Fed's March meeting will provide some support. Base metals are seen trading rangebound today.

The monthly rate for US imports price index in March is expected at 0.1, down from the previous 0.4, while its annual rate is estimated at 3.8, higher from the previous 3.5.

US unemployment claims for the week ended Saturday April 7 is seen at 23, lower from the previous 24.3.

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