Commerzbank Sees Growing Possibility of Corrections in Base Metalsย 

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Sep 5, 2017 09:58
Possibility is increasing for base metals to face corrections and the extent of corrections will grow as well, an analyst at Commerzbank said.

SHANGHAI, Sept. 5 (SMM) – Possibility is increasing for base metals to face corrections and the extent of corrections will grow as well, an analyst at Commerzbank said.

China Aluminum Stocks Add further after Reaching All-Time High, SMM Says

Copper and other base metals have been overbought and broken away from market fundamentals, the analyst explained.  

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๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
ํ•œ๊ตญ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ž…์€ํ–‰, ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ํ™•๋ณด ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ธ€๋ Œ์ฝ”์–ด์— 10์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ œ๊ณต
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ํ•œ๊ตญ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ž…์€ํ–‰, ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ํ™•๋ณด ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ธ€๋ Œ์ฝ”์–ด์— 10์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ œ๊ณต
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ํ•œ๊ตญ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ž…์€ํ–‰, ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ํ™•๋ณด ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ธ€๋ Œ์ฝ”์–ด์— 10์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ œ๊ณต
ํ•œ๊ตญ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ž…์€ํ–‰, ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ํ™•๋ณด ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ธ€๋ Œ์ฝ”์–ด์— 10์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ œ๊ณต
ํ•œ๊ตญ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ž…์€ํ–‰์€ 8์›” 17์ผ, ๋Œ€์ถœ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ์ค‘ ๊ธ€๋ Œ์ฝ”์–ด๊ฐ€ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๊ธฐ์—…์— ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ํ•˜๋Š” ์กฐ๊ฑด์œผ๋กœ 10์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์˜ ๊ธˆ์œต ์ง€์›์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ์ด ์ž๊ธˆ์€ ๊ธ€๋ Œ์ฝ”์–ด์˜ ์ผ๋ฐ˜ ์šด์˜ ์ž๊ธˆ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์ž๊ธˆ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋Š” ํ•œ๊ตญ ๊ธฐ์—…์ด ํ•ต์‹ฌ ์›์ž์žฌ๋ฅผ ํ™•๋ณดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ์„ค๊ณ„๋๋‹ค. ๊ธ€๋ Œ์ฝ”์–ด๋Š” ์น ๋ ˆ, ํŽ˜๋ฃจ ๋“ฑ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๊ตญ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ, ์ œ๋ จ ์ž์‚ฐ, ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ๋ฅผ ์šด์˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ž…์€ํ–‰์€ ๊ธ€๋ Œ์ฝ”์–ด์˜ ๋‹ค๊ฐํ™”๋œ ์ž์‚ฐ๊ณผ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์ด ํŠน์ • ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋‚˜ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—์„œ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ฐจ์งˆ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋Œ€์ฒด ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์„ค๋ช…ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ํ•ฉ์˜๋Š” ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์ธ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋กœ ์ด์–ด์ง€์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์ง€๋งŒ, ํ•œ๊ตญ ๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ์•ˆ์ •์„ฑ์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•œ๋‹ค.
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๋ฐœ๋ ˆ, ์‚ด๋กœ๋ถ€ ์กฐ๋ฆฝ์ž ๋ถ€์œ ์„ ๊ด‘ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”โ€ฆ 2028๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ 3๋งŒ ํ†ค ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ฐœ๋ ˆ, ์‚ด๋กœ๋ถ€ ์กฐ๋ฆฝ์ž ๋ถ€์œ ์„ ๊ด‘ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”โ€ฆ 2028๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ 3๋งŒ ํ†ค ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฐœ๋ ˆ, ์‚ด๋กœ๋ถ€ ์กฐ๋ฆฝ์ž ๋ถ€์œ ์„ ๊ด‘ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”โ€ฆ 2028๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ 3๋งŒ ํ†ค ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ
๋ฐœ๋ ˆ, ์‚ด๋กœ๋ถ€ ์กฐ๋ฆฝ์ž ๋ถ€์œ ์„ ๊ด‘ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”โ€ฆ 2028๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ 3๋งŒ ํ†ค ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ
๋ฐœ๋ ˆ ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ฉ”ํƒˆ์Šค(Vale Base Metals)๋Š” ๋ธŒ๋ผ์งˆ ์‚ด๋กœ๋ณด ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๋ณตํ•ฉ๋‹จ์ง€์—์„œ ์กฐ๋Œ€ ์ž…์ž ๋ถ€์œ  ์„ ๊ด‘(Coarse Particle Flotation) ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋ฅผ ์ถ”์ง„ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ™•์ธํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ด‘์„ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์„ 600๋งŒ ํ†ค ๋Š˜๋ ค 4,200๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ณ , ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์•ฝ 3๋งŒ ํ†ค์˜ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ •๊ด‘๊ณผ ๋ถ€์‚ฐ๋ฌผ๋กœ ์•ฝ 1๋งŒ 5,000์˜จ์Šค์˜ ๊ธˆ์„ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€๋™ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๋Š” 2028๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ๋กœ ์•ž๋‹น๊ฒจ์ ธ ๊ณ„ํš๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ฝ 1๋…„ ๋นจ๋ผ์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ž๋ณธ ์ง€์ถœ(CAPEX)์€ 2์–ต 2,500๋งŒ~2์–ต 7,500๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์—์„œ ์•ฝ 2์–ต 1,500๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋กœ ์ตœ์ ํ™”๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํœ˜ํŠผ ํ”„๋ ˆ์…”์Šค ๋ฉ”ํƒˆ์Šค(Wheaton Precious Metals)๊ฐ€ 4,000๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์ง€์›ํ•˜์—ฌ VBM์˜ ์ˆœ์ง€์ถœ์€ ์•ฝ 1์–ต 7,500๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋กœ ์ค„๊ณ  ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ๋‚ด๋ถ€์ˆ˜์ต๋ฅ (IRR)์€ 50%๋ฅผ ์ดˆ๊ณผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” VBM์˜ ์ €๋น„์šฉ ์นด๋ผ์ž์Šค ๋ธŒ๋ผ์šดํ•„๋“œ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํŒŒ์ดํ”„๋ผ์ธ์˜ ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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๋ฃฌ๋”˜, ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ํ˜น๋…ํ•œ ๊ฒจ์šธ ํญํ’ ์ดํ›„ ์นด์„ธ๋กœ๋„ค์Šค ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ „๋ง ํ•˜ํ–ฅ
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๋ฃฌ๋”˜, ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ํ˜น๋…ํ•œ ๊ฒจ์šธ ํญํ’ ์ดํ›„ ์นด์„ธ๋กœ๋„ค์Šค ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ „๋ง ํ•˜ํ–ฅ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฃฌ๋”˜, ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ํ˜น๋…ํ•œ ๊ฒจ์šธ ํญํ’ ์ดํ›„ ์นด์„ธ๋กœ๋„ค์Šค ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ „๋ง ํ•˜ํ–ฅ
๋ฃฌ๋”˜, ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ํ˜น๋…ํ•œ ๊ฒจ์šธ ํญํ’ ์ดํ›„ ์นด์„ธ๋กœ๋„ค์Šค ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ „๋ง ํ•˜ํ–ฅ
๋ฃฌ๋”˜ ๋งˆ์ด๋‹(Lundin Mining)์€ 8์›” 19์ผ ์น ๋ ˆ ์•„ํƒ€์นด๋งˆ ์ง€์—ญ์— ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ๊ฒจ์šธ ํญํ’์œผ๋กœ ์นด์„ธ๋กœ๋„ค์Šค(Caserones) ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์˜ ๋ณต๊ตฌ ์ž‘์—…์ด ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋กœ ์ฐจ์งˆ์„ ๋นš์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. 8์›” 13์ผ ์‹œ์ž‘๋œ ์ด ํญํ’์€ ํญ์šฐ, ์ด๋ก€์ ์ธ ํญ์„ค, ๊ฐ•ํ’์„ ๋™๋ฐ˜ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€๋‚œ 7์›” 18์ผ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 30์ผ๊นŒ์ง€์˜ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ์ •์ „์— ์ด์–ด, 8์›” 14์ผ์—๋Š” ์ด์ „์— ์†์ƒ๋œ ์†ก์ „ํƒ‘์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฅผ ์ž…์œผ๋ฉด์„œ ๋˜ ํ•œ ์ฐจ๋ก€ ์ •์ „์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„์ „ํ•œ ์ „๋ ฅ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์ด ๋ณต๊ตฌ๋  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ดํ›„ ์ ์ง„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋™์„ ์žฌ๊ฐœํ•  ๊ณ„ํš์ด๋‹ค. ๋ฃฌ๋”˜์€ ์นด์„ธ๋กœ๋„ค์Šค์˜ 2026๋…„ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์กด 130,000~140,000ํ†ค์—์„œ 120,000~130,000ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜ํ–ฅ ์กฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ , ํ˜„๊ธˆ ๋น„์šฉ ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค๋ฅผ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋‹น 2.15~2.35๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋กœ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์กฐ์ •ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์นธ๋ธ๋ผ๋ฆฌ์•„(Candelaria) ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์€ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑ์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•  ์ „๋ง์ด๋ฉฐ, ๋ฃฌ๋”˜์˜ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ ๊ธฐ์ค€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค๋Š” 300,000~325,000ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์ •๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค.
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Commerzbank Sees Growing Possibility of Corrections in Base Metalsย  - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)