SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jun. 1, 2017)

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jun 1, 2017 09:16
Base metals fell before rallying on Wednesdayโ€™s night trading, with shorts on the upper hand. Price volatility is expected to be intense on Thursday.

SHANGHAI, Jun. 1 (SMM) – Base metals fell before rallying on Wednesday’s night trading, with shorts on the upper hand. Price volatility is expected to be intense on Thursday. 

Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-6-1)

Product

Price Range

Copper

45,100-45,600

Aluminum

13,750-13,950

Lead

15,850-16,200

Zinc

21,700-22,100

Tin

142,500-144,500

Nickel

72,700-74,000

Unit: yuan/tonne

Source: SMM

SMM Weekly Price Outlook for Base Metals on LME and SHFE (May 29-Jun. 2, 2017)

Note: Prices all above are for most-actively traded contract on the SHFE.

For news cooperation, please contact us by email: sallyzhang@smm.cn or service.en@smm.cn.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
๋ชจ๋กœ์ฝ” ๋ถ€๋งˆ๋”˜ ๋‹ค๊ธˆ์† ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ 
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ชจ๋กœ์ฝ” ๋ถ€๋งˆ๋”˜ ๋‹ค๊ธˆ์† ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ 
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ชจ๋กœ์ฝ” ๋ถ€๋งˆ๋”˜ ๋‹ค๊ธˆ์† ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ 
๋ชจ๋กœ์ฝ” ๋ถ€๋งˆ๋”˜ ๋‹ค๊ธˆ์† ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ 
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ํŒก๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ๋™-๊ธˆ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์บ ํ”„ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ, ์žฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์•ˆ๋ณด ์œ„ํ—˜ ๋ถ€๊ฐ
3์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ํŒก๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ๋™-๊ธˆ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์บ ํ”„ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ, ์žฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์•ˆ๋ณด ์œ„ํ—˜ ๋ถ€๊ฐ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ํŒก๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ๋™-๊ธˆ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์บ ํ”„ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ, ์žฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์•ˆ๋ณด ์œ„ํ—˜ ๋ถ€๊ฐ
ํŒก๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ๋™-๊ธˆ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์บ ํ”„ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ, ์žฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์•ˆ๋ณด ์œ„ํ—˜ ๋ถ€๊ฐ
๋ถ€๊ฑด๋นŒ ์ž์น˜์ •๋ถ€๋Š” 9์›” 13์ผ ํŒ๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ๋™-๊ธˆ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์˜ ๋กœ์ด์ฆˆ ํŒ๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ๋ฉ”ํƒˆ์Šค & ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์บ ํ”„๊ฐ€ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์„ ๋ฐ›์•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ์ง์›๋“ค์ด ํญํ–‰๋‹นํ–ˆ๊ณ  ๋ฐฉํ™”๋กœ ์žฅ๋น„๊ฐ€ ํŒŒ์†๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹น๊ตญ์€ ๋ถ€์ƒ ์ •๋„๋‚˜ ์žฅ๋น„ ์†์‹ค ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋Š” ๊ณต๊ฐœํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค. ์ด์Šค๋งˆ์—˜ ํ† ๋กœ์•„๋งˆ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์€ ์ด๋ฒˆ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์„ ๊ทœํƒ„ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ๊ณ„์† ์ถ”์ง„ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
3์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
NICICO, ์ด๋ž€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์„ ์ž์›๋Ÿ‰ 245์–ต ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœํ‘œ; ํƒ์‚ฌ ์‹œ์ถ” 20๋งŒ ๋ฏธํ„ฐ ์œก๋ฐ•
3์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
NICICO, ์ด๋ž€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์„ ์ž์›๋Ÿ‰ 245์–ต ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœํ‘œ; ํƒ์‚ฌ ์‹œ์ถ” 20๋งŒ ๋ฏธํ„ฐ ์œก๋ฐ•
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
NICICO, ์ด๋ž€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์„ ์ž์›๋Ÿ‰ 245์–ต ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœํ‘œ; ํƒ์‚ฌ ์‹œ์ถ” 20๋งŒ ๋ฏธํ„ฐ ์œก๋ฐ•
NICICO, ์ด๋ž€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์„ ์ž์›๋Ÿ‰ 245์–ต ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœํ‘œ; ํƒ์‚ฌ ์‹œ์ถ” 20๋งŒ ๋ฏธํ„ฐ ์œก๋ฐ•
์ด๋ž€ ์–ธ๋ก ์ด ๊ตญ์˜์ด๋ž€๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ์‚ฐ์—…๊ณต์‚ฌ(NICICO)์˜ ์„ธ์˜ˆ๋“œ ๋ชจ์Šคํƒ€ํŒŒ ํŽ˜์ด์ฆˆ ์ตœ๊ณ ๊ฒฝ์˜์ž๋ฅผ ์ธ์šฉํ•ด ๋ณด๋„ํ•œ ๋ฐ”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์ด๋ž€์˜ ์ง€์งˆํ•™์  ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์„ ์ž์›๋Ÿ‰์€ ์ด๋ž€๋ ฅ ์—ฐ์ดˆ 222์–ต ํ†ค์—์„œ 245์–ต ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ 10.6% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฑ„๊ตด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ(์„ค๊ณ„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ) ๋งค์žฅ๋Ÿ‰์€ 168์–ต ํ†ค์—์„œ 182์–ต ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ๋Š˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ฒซ 5๊ฐœ์›” ๋™์•ˆ 19๋งŒ 8,462m์˜ ํƒ์‚ฌ ์‹œ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋˜์–ด ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ 50๋งŒ m์˜ ์•ฝ 40%๋ฅผ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๋‘ํฌ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ฑ„๊ตด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ ๋งค์žฅ๋Ÿ‰์ด 123% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ 17์–ต 7,000๋งŒ ํ†ค, ์ง€์งˆํ•™์  ์ž์›๋Ÿ‰์€ 186% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ 28์–ต 8,300๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ง‘๊ณ„๋๋‹ค. ์‚ฌ๋ฅด์ฒด์Šˆ๋ฉ” ๊ด‘๊ตฌ์˜ ์ฑ„๊ตด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ ๋งค์žฅ๋Ÿ‰์€ ํ‰๊ท  ํ’ˆ์œ„ 0.41%๋กœ 77์–ต ํ†ค์— ๋‹ฌํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์šด์˜ ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ด๋ž€๋ ฅ 1429๋…„(์„œ๊ธฐ 2050~51๋…„๊ฒฝ)๊นŒ์ง€ ์—ฐ์žฅ๋๋‹ค. ์ด ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ์ด ์ฑ„๊ตด๋Ÿ‰์€ 1์–ต 5,300๋งŒ ํ†ค์„ ๋„˜์–ด ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ ์•ฝ 4% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ์ˆ˜์น˜๋Š” ํ™ฉํ™”๋ฌผ ๊ด‘์„, ์‚ฐํ™”๋ฌผ ๋ฐ ํ์„์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ™•๋Œ€๋œ ์ž์›๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ๋งค์žฅ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์€ ์ด๋ž€์˜ ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ ์ธ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ์ž ์žฌ๋ ฅ์„ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์ฆ‰๊ฐ์ ์ธ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค.
3์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „