SHFE Lead to Lack Rising Strength (2016-5-9)

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: May 9, 2016 09:45
SHFE 1607 lead will lack rising strength and will move at RMB 12,850-13,000/mt on May 9 with no improvement in fundamentals.

SHANGHAI, May 9 (SMM) โ€“SHFE 1607 lead will lack rising strength and will move at RMB 12,850-13,000/mt on May 9 with no improvement in fundamentals.

Attention is turning to movement of US dollar and crude oil prices. LME lead will move in a narrow range of USD 1,730-1,750/mt during Asian trading hours Monday. In Chinaโ€™s spot market, battery producers start sales promotion activities in the off-season and show little buying interest. Spot lead should trade at RMB 12,900-13,000/mt today with stabilizing of SHFE lead. 

Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2016-5-9)

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์žฌ๊ณ  5์ฃผ ์—ฐ์† ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต ๋”๋ŽŒ
24๋ถ„ ์ „
์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์žฌ๊ณ  5์ฃผ ์—ฐ์† ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต ๋”๋ŽŒ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์žฌ๊ณ  5์ฃผ ์—ฐ์† ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต ๋”๋ŽŒ
์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์žฌ๊ณ  5์ฃผ ์—ฐ์† ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต ๋”๋ŽŒ
[SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ] ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์ž‰๊ณณ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Š” 34,100ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 1,100ํ†ค ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฉฐ 5์ฃผ ์—ฐ์† ์žฌ๊ณ  ์ฆ๊ฐ€์„ธ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ํ†ต์ ์ธ ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์†Œ๋น„ ์‹œ์ฆŒ์ด ์ ์ฐจ ์‹œ์ž‘๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ตœ์ข… ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ฐœ์„ ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ œํ•œ์ ์ด๋ฉฐ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค๋Š” ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ํ•„์š” ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์œ„์ฃผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œํ™”๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋”๋””๋‹ค. ํ•œํŽธ, ์ผ๋ถ€ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๋ฐ ํ˜„๋ฌผ ํŠธ๋ ˆ์ด๋”์™€ ์œ ํ†ต ๋‹จ๊ณ„์˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ์žฌ๊ณ ์— ์ผ์ • ๋ถ€๋ถ„ ์ง€์ง€๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ 9์›” ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ์ ์ง„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐฉ์ถœ๋จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ์žฌ๊ณ  ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ์†๋„๋Š” ๋‘”ํ™”๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋ณ€๊ณก์ ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ถ”๊ฐ€์ ์ธ ์ˆ˜์š” ์‹คํ˜„์„ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ ค์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค.
24๋ถ„ ์ „
์ €์žฌ๊ณ ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ณ ๊ณต ํšก๋ณด ์ง€์ง€, ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ํšŒ๋ณต ์†๋„ ๊ฒ€์ฆ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ [SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์กฐ๊ฐ„ ํšŒ์˜ ์š”์•ฝ]
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์ €์žฌ๊ณ ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ณ ๊ณต ํšก๋ณด ์ง€์ง€, ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ํšŒ๋ณต ์†๋„ ๊ฒ€์ฆ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ [SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์กฐ๊ฐ„ ํšŒ์˜ ์š”์•ฝ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์ €์žฌ๊ณ ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ณ ๊ณต ํšก๋ณด ์ง€์ง€, ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ํšŒ๋ณต ์†๋„ ๊ฒ€์ฆ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ [SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์กฐ๊ฐ„ ํšŒ์˜ ์š”์•ฝ]
์ €์žฌ๊ณ ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ณ ๊ณต ํšก๋ณด ์ง€์ง€, ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ํšŒ๋ณต ์†๋„ ๊ฒ€์ฆ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ [SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์กฐ๊ฐ„ ํšŒ์˜ ์š”์•ฝ]
[๋‚ฎ์€ ์žฌ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์˜ ๊ณ ์  ํšก๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ง€์ง€; ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ํšŒ๋ณต ์†๋„๋Š” ๊ฒ€์ฆ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ] ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ•์„ธ ํšก๋ณดํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋œ๋‹ค.
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ADC12 ์‹ ๊ทœ ๊ณ ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ๋‘”ํ™”, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์ƒ์Šน์„ธ ๋™๋ฐ˜ [SMM ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ๋ชจ๋‹ ์ฝ”๋ฉ˜ํŠธ]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ADC12 ์‹ ๊ทœ ๊ณ ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ๋‘”ํ™”, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์ƒ์Šน์„ธ ๋™๋ฐ˜ [SMM ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ๋ชจ๋‹ ์ฝ”๋ฉ˜ํŠธ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ADC12 ์‹ ๊ทœ ๊ณ ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ๋‘”ํ™”, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์ƒ์Šน์„ธ ๋™๋ฐ˜ [SMM ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ๋ชจ๋‹ ์ฝ”๋ฉ˜ํŠธ]
ADC12 ์‹ ๊ทœ ๊ณ ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ๋‘”ํ™”, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์ƒ์Šน์„ธ ๋™๋ฐ˜ [SMM ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ๋ชจ๋‹ ์ฝ”๋ฉ˜ํŠธ]
[SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์ฃผ์กฐ ์กฐ๊ฐ„ ๋…ผํ‰: ADC12 ์‹ ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ๋‘”ํ™”, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ๋™๋ฐ˜ ์ƒ์Šน] ์–ด์ œ ADC12 ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฌ์กฐํ•œ ํ๋ฆ„์„ ๋ณด์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, SMM ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ์ „์ผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 100์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค ์ƒ์Šนํ•œ 24,450์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์„ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์กฐ์ • ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์€ ์ฃผ๋กœ ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ ๋น„๋กฏ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฒซ์งธ, ์›์ž์žฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜์ค€์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ผ๋ถ€ ์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ ์„ธ๊ธˆ๊ณ„์‚ฐ์„œ ์ •์ฑ…์ด ๊ฐ•ํ™”๋˜๋ฉด์„œ ๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ๋น„์šฉ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋น„์šฉ ์ง€์ง€๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ•ํ™”๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‘˜์งธ, ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ์†Œํญ ๊ฐœ์„ ๋˜๋ฉด์„œ ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ด์ „๋ณด๋‹ค ๋‹ค์†Œ ํšŒ๋ณต๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ๊ทธ ํญ์€ ์ œํ•œ์ ์ด์–ด์„œ ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ฒฌ์ธ ํšจ๊ณผ๋Š” ์™„๋งŒํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ์—…๊ณ„๋Š” ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋น„์šฉ ์ฃผ๋„๊ฐ€ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์ด๊ณ  ์™„๋งŒํ•œ ์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์ด ๋ณด์กฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ตฌ๋„๋ฅผ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์œ ์ง€ ์˜์ง€๋Š” ๋‹ค์†Œ ๊ฐ•ํ™”๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน ์—ฌ์ง€๋Š” ํ–ฅํ›„ ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ˆ˜์š”์˜ ์‹ค์ œ ์‹คํ˜„ ์—ฌ๋ถ€์— ๋‹ฌ๋ ค ์žˆ๋‹ค.
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
SHFE Lead to Lack Rising Strength (2016-5-9) - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)