Akuisisi Proyek Danau Garam Litium di Luar Tiongkok Senilai 1,18 Miliar Berubah di Luar Dugaan! Usaha Energi Baru Lintas Sektor Perusahaan Properti Publik Terhambat

Baru-baru ini, Biro Energi Provinsi Guangdong menyelesaikan peninjauan laporan hemat energi untuk proyek basis China Selatan milik Cangzhou Mingzhu (002108) dan menyetujui laporan tersebut secara prinsip. Berdasarkan pengumuman publik, proyek ini berlokasi di Kota Xiancun, Distrik Zengcheng, Provinsi Guangdong, dengan total investasi sekitar 3,3789 miliar yuan. Proyek ini mencakup dua sub-proyek: separator baterai litium dan pipa tekanan PE. Konten konstruksi utama mencakup 8 jalur produksi separator baterai litium proses basah dan 6 jalur produksi pipa tekanan PE. Setelah selesai, proyek ini akan memiliki kapasitas produksi tahunan sebesar 30.000 ton metrik pipa tekanan PE dan 2,4 miliar m² separator proses basah. Sub-proyek separator direncanakan mulai berproduksi pada Desember 2028, dan sub-proyek pipa tekanan PE direncanakan mulai berproduksi pada Oktober 2027.

Over the next decade (2026-2035), the combined market share of the three traditional major lithium producers Australia, China and Chile is expected to keep declining as emerging suppliers scale up, with Zimbabwe and Argentina identified as the key sources of new supply. Zimbabwe, in particular, is likely to lead a new round of African lithium expansion, according to a latest research report. Strong H1 momentum, supported by storage demand. China's battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price stood at around 153,950 yuan/mt (approx. USD 21,500/mt) on August 17, after a rally of more than 130% from the June 2025 low of 58,400 yuan/mt. The 2026 forecast for China lithium carbonate has been revised up to USD 20,100/t and lithium hydroxide monohydrate to USD 19,600/t, reflecting that H1 momentum. Prices are expected to ease in H2 as smelter maintenance ends and supply returns, but storage demand is limiting the downside market balances now point to month-on-month destocking through H2 2026, with some analysts projecting the year's price peak in late Q3/early Q4. From ore exporter to processor enforced by policy. Zimbabwe’s rise is no longer just a forecast. On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe's mining ministry banned all exports of lithium raw ore and concentrates with immediate effect, forcing miners to build local processing capacity. Zimbabwe's output was expected to reach ~200,000 t LCE in 2026 (up over 15% year on year), equal to ~10% of global primary lithium supply and ~17% of global spodumene supply before the ban; the restriction is estimated to affect around 12,000 t LCE of monthly supply. Key projects include: 1) Huayou Cobalt's Arcadia ~70,000-80,000 t LCE of mine output expected in 2026, with its 50,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant commissioned in Q1 2026 and now ramping up; 2) Sinomine's Bikita ~60,000-70,000 t LCE expected in 2026, with a 30,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant slated for 2027; 3) Chengxin's Sabi Star (~35,000 t LCE) and Yahua's Kamativi (~50,000 t LCE) rounding out a Chinese-invested project portfolio totaling roughly 230,000 t LCE. 4) In 2025, Zimbabwe shipped over 1.2 million tonnes of spodumene to China about 15% of China's total imports making it a supply source Beijing's supply chain cannot easily replace. 2026 is the last investment peak of this cycle global lithium supply is projected to rise ~30% year on year to over 2.1 million t LCE in 2026, concentrated in China and Africa (Africa alone adding ~140,000 t to reach ~380,000 t LCE). Chinese output hit 970,000 t of lithium carbonate in 2025, with new additions this year from Qinghai/Tibet salt lakes, Sichuan spodumene and Jianxiawo's expected restart in H2. Australia shipped 158,000 t of spodumene to China in the week of August 10-16 alone. But few new projects are lined up beyond 2027 a key reason sentiment has flipped from glut to deficit: Morgan Stanley now forecasts an 80,000 t LCE global deficit for 2026, UBS sees a 22,000 t shortfall, versus a 61,000 t surplus in 2025. EVs slow, storage takes the wheel. Global lithium demand growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2026 (from 18.5% in 2025), with passenger EV sales growth falling to 3.9% (vs 22.8% in 2025 and 24% in 2024) as China's trade-in subsidies end and the US IRA rollback bites. Energy storage is now the core demand pillar: storage-sector lithium demand is forecast to jump ~55-74% in 2026, lifting its share of total lithium demand from 23% to ~31%. LFP batteries account for over 90% of battery storage applications and more than half of global EV battery installations; China's LFP cell makers reported hot August orders with output up ~5% month on month. China's NEV penetration hit 58.5% in June above 50% for the third straight month. Battery manufacturing investment in China grew 23% in January-July 2026. Risks. Lithium remains in a "tug-of-war" between supply-release concerns and storage-driven demand support, with risks skewed to the downside: a sustained price recovery could trigger rapid restarts (curtailed capacity covering 750,000+ t of concentrate sits near a ~USD 1,200/t restart cost line), sodium-ion substitution becomes economic if cell prices stay above ~0.4 yuan/Wh, and rising energy costs plus a potential sulfur shortage could squeeze miners' margins. Longer term, battery chemistry innovation and recycling could cut lithium intensity and expand secondary supply reshaping the opportunity window for emerging producers like Zimbabwe. SMM View: Zimbabwe's February export ban has turned the "move down the value chain" story from intention into policy reality Chinese invested projects at Arcadia and Bikita are now the country's only guaranteed export channels via lithium sulphate, and the roughly 12,000 t LCE/month of disrupted supply was a direct catalyst in this year's price rally above 150,000 yuan/mt. The report's core thesis a declining share for Australia, China and Chile, with Africa gaining is being validated in real time, Africa adds ~140,000 t LCE of supply in 2026, the largest increment after China. But Zimbabwe's ramp-up pace, its ability to keep sulphate exports flowing, and downstream pricing power remain the key variables determining whether it can fully deliver on its market-share ambitions

Prakiraan harga rata-rata litium karbonat dan litium hidroksida monohidrat dari Tiongkok Daratan untuk tahun 2026 telah direvisi naik masing-masing menjadi $20.100/ton dan $19.600/ton, mencerminkan kekuatan harga pada paruh pertama. Harga diperkirakan akan melemah pada paruh kedua, namun permintaan penyimpanan energi yang kuat seharusnya membatasi penurunan, dengan ketidakpastian atas dimulainya kembali tambang Jianxiawo milik CATL juga membatasi sentimen bearish. Pertumbuhan permintaan litium global diproyeksikan melambat menjadi 5,8% y/y pada 2026 dari 18,5% pada 2025, sejalan dengan perlambatan pertumbuhan penjualan EV penumpang global (BEV+PHEV) menjadi 3,9% y/y dari 22,8% pada 2025. Tiongkok tetap menjadi pendorong permintaan utama: penjualan NEV domestik naik 23,6% y/y menjadi 1,6 juta unit pada bulan Juni, dengan penetrasi NEV bertahan di rekor 58,5% dari penjualan kendaraan baru selama tiga bulan berturut-turut karena penarikan insentif dan tekanan struktural mendorong pasar ke fase pertumbuhan yang lebih matang. Harga bahan bakar yang tinggi terkait konflik Timur Tengah memberikan dukungan tambahan terhadap permintaan powertrain listrik dan hibrida. Di sisi pasokan, produksi litium global diperkirakan tumbuh 13,2% y/y pada 2026, dipimpin oleh Australia dan Tiongkok, dengan pemulihan harga mendukung dimulainya kembali kapasitas Australia berbiaya lebih tinggi meskipun ada tekanan biaya dari harga energi dan potensi kekurangan belerang. Pangsa gabungan dari tiga produsen teratas, Australia, Tiongkok, dan Cile, diperkirakan akan menurun hingga 2035 seiring peningkatan produksi Argentina dan Zimbabwe, dengan Zimbabwe dipandang sebagai pendorong utama pengembangan tambang litium Afrika di tahun-tahun mendatang. Premium karbonat terhadap hidroksida diperkirakan akan terus berlanjut karena adopsi LFP yang berkelanjutan, yang kini menyumbang lebih dari setengah instalasi baterai EV global dan lebih dari 90% kapasitas penyimpanan energi baterai. Dalam jangka panjang, kimia baterai bebas litium/berkurang litium serta kemajuan dalam daur ulang baterai menimbulkan risiko penurunan harga secara struktural. Pandangan SMM: Revisi ini menegaskan ketahanan harga paruh pertama alih-alih pergeseran fundamental yang mendasarinya; harga saat ini tetap dianggap tinggi relatif terhadap fundamental, dengan risiko paruh kedua condong ke penurunan. Untuk pasokan Afrika, peran Zimbabwe dalam pergeseran menjauh dari tiga produsen teratas tradisional pada dekade mendatang sejalan dengan pembangunan integrasi sulfat/hidroksida yang sedang berlangsung; pelaksanaan yang berkelanjutan akan semakin memperkuat posisi Afrika dalam struktur pasokan litium global.