[SMM Flash] Perkiraan Harga Litium 2026 Direvisi Naik; Permintaan Penyimpanan Menopang Ketahanan, Pertumbuhan Pasokan Membatasi Kenaikan

Over the next decade (2026-2035), the combined market share of the three traditional major lithium producers Australia, China and Chile is expected to keep declining as emerging suppliers scale up, with Zimbabwe and Argentina identified as the key sources of new supply. Zimbabwe, in particular, is likely to lead a new round of African lithium expansion, according to a latest research report. Strong H1 momentum, supported by storage demand. China's battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price stood at around 153,950 yuan/mt (approx. USD 21,500/mt) on August 17, after a rally of more than 130% from the June 2025 low of 58,400 yuan/mt. The 2026 forecast for China lithium carbonate has been revised up to USD 20,100/t and lithium hydroxide monohydrate to USD 19,600/t, reflecting that H1 momentum. Prices are expected to ease in H2 as smelter maintenance ends and supply returns, but storage demand is limiting the downside market balances now point to month-on-month destocking through H2 2026, with some analysts projecting the year's price peak in late Q3/early Q4. From ore exporter to processor enforced by policy. Zimbabwe’s rise is no longer just a forecast. On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe's mining ministry banned all exports of lithium raw ore and concentrates with immediate effect, forcing miners to build local processing capacity. Zimbabwe's output was expected to reach ~200,000 t LCE in 2026 (up over 15% year on year), equal to ~10% of global primary lithium supply and ~17% of global spodumene supply before the ban; the restriction is estimated to affect around 12,000 t LCE of monthly supply. Key projects include: 1) Huayou Cobalt's Arcadia ~70,000-80,000 t LCE of mine output expected in 2026, with its 50,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant commissioned in Q1 2026 and now ramping up; 2) Sinomine's Bikita ~60,000-70,000 t LCE expected in 2026, with a 30,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant slated for 2027; 3) Chengxin's Sabi Star (~35,000 t LCE) and Yahua's Kamativi (~50,000 t LCE) rounding out a Chinese-invested project portfolio totaling roughly 230,000 t LCE. 4) In 2025, Zimbabwe shipped over 1.2 million tonnes of spodumene to China about 15% of China's total imports making it a supply source Beijing's supply chain cannot easily replace. 2026 is the last investment peak of this cycle global lithium supply is projected to rise ~30% year on year to over 2.1 million t LCE in 2026, concentrated in China and Africa (Africa alone adding ~140,000 t to reach ~380,000 t LCE). Chinese output hit 970,000 t of lithium carbonate in 2025, with new additions this year from Qinghai/Tibet salt lakes, Sichuan spodumene and Jianxiawo's expected restart in H2. Australia shipped 158,000 t of spodumene to China in the week of August 10-16 alone. But few new projects are lined up beyond 2027 a key reason sentiment has flipped from glut to deficit: Morgan Stanley now forecasts an 80,000 t LCE global deficit for 2026, UBS sees a 22,000 t shortfall, versus a 61,000 t surplus in 2025. EVs slow, storage takes the wheel. Global lithium demand growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2026 (from 18.5% in 2025), with passenger EV sales growth falling to 3.9% (vs 22.8% in 2025 and 24% in 2024) as China's trade-in subsidies end and the US IRA rollback bites. Energy storage is now the core demand pillar: storage-sector lithium demand is forecast to jump ~55-74% in 2026, lifting its share of total lithium demand from 23% to ~31%. LFP batteries account for over 90% of battery storage applications and more than half of global EV battery installations; China's LFP cell makers reported hot August orders with output up ~5% month on month. China's NEV penetration hit 58.5% in June above 50% for the third straight month. Battery manufacturing investment in China grew 23% in January-July 2026. Risks. Lithium remains in a "tug-of-war" between supply-release concerns and storage-driven demand support, with risks skewed to the downside: a sustained price recovery could trigger rapid restarts (curtailed capacity covering 750,000+ t of concentrate sits near a ~USD 1,200/t restart cost line), sodium-ion substitution becomes economic if cell prices stay above ~0.4 yuan/Wh, and rising energy costs plus a potential sulfur shortage could squeeze miners' margins. Longer term, battery chemistry innovation and recycling could cut lithium intensity and expand secondary supply reshaping the opportunity window for emerging producers like Zimbabwe. SMM View: Zimbabwe's February export ban has turned the "move down the value chain" story from intention into policy reality Chinese invested projects at Arcadia and Bikita are now the country's only guaranteed export channels via lithium sulphate, and the roughly 12,000 t LCE/month of disrupted supply was a direct catalyst in this year's price rally above 150,000 yuan/mt. The report's core thesis a declining share for Australia, China and Chile, with Africa gaining is being validated in real time, Africa adds ~140,000 t LCE of supply in 2026, the largest increment after China. But Zimbabwe's ramp-up pace, its ability to keep sulphate exports flowing, and downstream pricing power remain the key variables determining whether it can fully deliver on its market-share ambitions

Perjanjian tambahan senilai US$2 juta antara Negara Bagian Nasarawa dan Diamond New Energy memastikan pasokan bijih litium berkelanjutan dari blok tambang negara bagian itu ke kilang litium Endo (~3 juta ton/tahun, 6.000 ton/hari, fasilitas pengolahan litium terbesar di Afrika Barat). Sebuah akta bersamaan mentransfer hak penambangan atas 3,5 unit kadastral di Endo dari Nasarawa Mining Company ke Ganfeng Lithium, memberikan Ganfeng kendali langsung atas pasokan spodumena hulu, mengurangi ketergantungan pada bijih pihak ketiga/artisanal, dan memperpendek rantai logistik dari bijih ke kilang guna mendukung volume produksi garam litium yang lebih stabil. Pandangan SMM: Arti penting sejati dari kesepakatan ini adalah keamanan pasokan bahan baku untuk kapasitas konversi litium, bukan pembayaran itu sendiri. Mengonsolidasikan hak penambangan spodumena di bawah operator kilang menurunkan volatilitas pasokan bijih dan memberikan prediktabilitas yang lebih baik pada produksi konsentrat litium dan garam di hilir. Hal ini mencerminkan pendekatan terintegrasi vertikal Ganfeng di Goulamina, Mali, yang semakin menanamkan rantai pasok litium dari tambang ke kilang yang dikendalikan Tiongkok di Afrika Barat serta menambah terus meningkatnya volume litium olahan di kawasan tersebut yang ditujukan ke pasar Tiongkok.

[Sembilan Kementerian: Perluas Pasokan Barang Berkualitas Tinggi dengan Harga Wajar, Dukung Kuat Kendaraan Energi Baru dan Produk Lainnya Masuk ke Pedesaan] Pendapat Kementerian Perdagangan dan Delapan Kementerian Lainnya tentang Lebih Menggairahkan Vitalitas Pasar Tingkat Bawah dan Mendorong Konsumsi Tingkat Kabupaten menyatakan bahwa pasokan barang berkualitas tinggi dengan harga wajar akan diperluas. Perusahaan didorong untuk secara aktif memperkenalkan barang berkualitas tinggi ke pasar tingkat kabupaten, meluncurkan produk baru secara serentak di kabupaten yang kondisinya memungkinkan, serta mendorong “kualitas sama, akses sama” untuk produk yang sama di perkotaan dan pedesaan. Perusahaan dibimbing untuk mengembangkan produk berkualitas tinggi yang sesuai dengan karakteristik konsumsi tingkat kabupaten, dan perusahaan perdagangan serta distribusi didukung untuk membangun rantai pasok yang fleksibel melalui “merek sendiri + produksi berbasis permintaan”. Dukungan kuat akan diberikan bagi kendaraan energi baru, produk hijau dan cerdas, bahan bangunan hijau, serta produk lainnya untuk masuk ke pedesaan, dan cakupan fasilitas pengisian daya di pedesaan akan diperluas.