Kemajuan Positif dalam Perundingan AS-Iran, Penurunan Harga Minyak Mendorong Kontrak Berjangka Tembaga [Komentar Pagi Tembaga SMM]

According to foreign media reports, on June 29, the DRC government signed an order banning the export of copper-cobalt concentrates, effective immediately; projects meeting "strategic" criteria may be granted an export exemption of up to one year by the Minister of Mines. Previously, the DRC had already imposed strict approvals on the export of copper-cobalt concentrates, requiring enterprises to obtain export quotas or exemptions before shipping out. Therefore, this policy is more of a reiteration and tightening of existing controls, rather than a sudden complete suspension of exports. According to SMM, the copper concentrates previously exported by the DRC mainly came from the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine jointly owned by Zijin Mining and Ivanhoe. In 2025, the mine produced copper concentrates containing 388,800 mt of copper, and a 500,000 mt/year direct-to-blister copper smelter was commissioned at year-end, producing copper anode with 99.7% purity, which still needs to be shipped overseas for further refining. In Q2 2026, the smelter produced 62,100 mt of copper anode. With the capacity ramp-up, the project's exported products are transitioning from copper concentrates to copper anode. Considering that the DRC's copper concentrate exports were already subject to approval restrictions and that Kamoa-Kakula already has local smelting capacity, the new impact of this ban on short-term global copper concentrates trade may be limited. However, the signal sent by the policy is clear: as the strategic importance of critical minerals rises, resource-rich countries are placing greater emphasis on using export restrictions, local processing requirements, and tax policies to retain more resource value addition and industry chain segments domestically. The impact of resource protectionism on the global supply landscape of copper raw materials is continuing to rise.

Menurut Reuters, pemerintah Republik Demokratik Kongo (DRC) telah mengumumkan larangan segera ekspor konsentrat tembaga dan kobalt sebagai bagian dari upaya mendorong pemrosesan mineral dalam negeri dan meningkatkan nilai tambah sumber daya mineralnya. Menurut perintah pemerintah yang diperoleh Reuters, larangan itu ditandatangani pada 29 Juni oleh Menteri Pertambangan, Menteri Perdagangan Luar Negeri, dan Menteri Perekonomian, serta secara tegas melarang ekspor konsentrat tembaga dan kobalt. Pada saat yang sama, DRC memperkenalkan rezim pajak baru untuk produk sampingan tambang yang bernilai ekonomi signifikan guna meningkatkan pendapatan sektor pertambangannya. Rezim pajak baru ini mencakup masa transisi tiga bulan, sementara larangan ekspor langsung berlaku. Dalam keadaan "strategis", Menteri Pertambangan dapat memberikan pengecualian ekspor hingga satu tahun. Sebagai produsen kobalt terbesar di dunia dan pemasok tembaga terbesar kedua, langkah DRC ini diperkirakan akan berdampak pada perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan besar yang beroperasi di negara tersebut, termasuk CMOC, Glencore, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, Ivanhoe Mines, dan Eurasian Resources Group.

Tabel berikut menunjukkan pergerakan logam besi dan non-besi di SHFE dan DCE pada 6 Agustus 2026.