【SMM Analysis】Electrolytic Manganese Market Weakens, Bearish Trend Expected to Continue Short-Term

The domestic electrolytic manganese market has stabilized slightly after a minor decline recently, with a lingering weak and sluggish market sentiment. Although the price drop has slowed down without continuous sharp declines, market pessimism remains prevalent, and downward pressure is still prominent.

Spot Market: Offers Keep Softening with Low-Price Supplies Emerging

Current spot quotations for retail electrolytic manganese have moved down steadily, with mainstream tax-included ex-factory cash prices ranging from RMB 17,900 to 18,100 per ton. Producers in remote areas and traders have further cut offers to accelerate destocking.

Market trading activity is sluggish. Downstream buyers are highly reluctant to purchase amid falling prices and maintain a strong wait-and-see attitude, only placing rigid small-batch orders. The lack of bulk procurement demand has further weakened the overall market trend.

Steel Tender Market: Price Compression Intensifies

Continuously weak steel mill tender prices have become the core factor dragging down manganese prices. In the latest round of tenders, the tax-included delivered acceptance prices for manganese briquettes and manganese ingots offered by some steel mills fell to RMB 17,980–18,800 per ton, with individual tender prices dropping by RMB 520 per ton month-on-month, reflecting strong downward pricing pressure from steel mills.

Meanwhile, steel mills hold high raw material inventories and have adopted conservative procurement strategies with substantially reduced tender volumes. Faced with sluggish end demand and profit pressure, steel mills prioritize inventory digestion and cut external purchases, further weakening market demand support and deepening bearish expectations for the future market.

Core Causes of Price Decline: Loose Supply-Demand Balance, Sluggish Demand and Pessimistic Market Sentiment

Loose supply-demand pattern: The electrolytic manganese industry maintains a high operating rate, sustaining persistent supply pressure. In addition, falling market prices have prompted traders to offload stocks, resulting in abundant circulating supplies.

Dual weakness in downstream demand: The steel industry has entered the traditional off-season, with sluggish recovery in real estate and infrastructure end demand and weak steel mill procurement. In the new energy sector, purchases from lithium manganate and lithium manganese iron phosphate manufacturers remain cautious with insufficient rigid demand, failing to provide effective market support.

Pessimistic market sentiment: Continuous price declines have shaken market confidence, forming a negative feedback loop of falling prices triggering wait-and-see behavior, which further suppresses trading activity and spreads bearish sentiment across the entire industrial chain.

Market Outlook: Short-Term Weak Trend to Continue, Steel Tender Signals to Be Closely Monitored

Overall, the electrolytic manganese market lacks significant positive drivers, and the downward trend is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Manganese prices are expected to maintain a weak volatile pattern and may test lower levels in the near future.