[NPI Daily Review] Downstream Push for Lower Prices Sentiment Strengthened, High-Grade NPI Price Center Shifted Downward

SMM May 19,

May 19, the SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment factor was 2.66, down 0.08 MoM, the high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.16, down 0.09 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 2.16, down 0.08 MoM. Today, the high-grade NPI market overall showed a pattern of softening offers, declining transaction price center, and continued divergence between upstream and downstream. Supply side, the Maluku Islands production cuts news still provided some short-term market support, and some suppliers had limited willingness to sell at low prices. However, influenced by weakening futures and deteriorating market sentiment, upstream efforts to hold prices firm weakened compared to the previous period, with the offer center gradually moving toward around 1,150 yuan/nickel unit. Transaction side, some low-priced resources flowed out of the market, mainstream transaction activity was moderate, and high-priced transactions were clearly constrained. Downstream side, after steel scrap prices pulled back, steel mills' acceptance of high-priced NPI declined, with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand and pushing for lower prices. Mainstream intended prices were concentrated around 1,120-1,130 yuan/nickel unit, still showing some divergence from upstream offers. Overall, tight spot supply in the short term still provided some price support, but weak futures, declining steel scrap prices, and cautious downstream procurement collectively suppressed the upside room for NPI prices. High-grade NPI prices were expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with the price center still under downward pressure.