Alumina 2609 Futures Sideways with Bearish Technical Outlook, Range-Bound Short-Term

Xinbo Shares (003038.SZ) announced that its subsidiary Anhui Xinbo New Energy Vehicle Parts Co., Ltd. plans to carry out the investment and construction of the "New Energy Annual Production of One Million Sets of Lightweight High-end Aluminum Parts Project." The project has a total investment of approximately 100 million yuan, with funding to be sourced through the company's own funds or self-raised capital. The project primarily serves internationally renowned automobile OEMs, with a construction period of six months. Upon completion, the project will help the company further expand the NEV parts market and cultivate new profit growth drivers.

[Macro Tailwinds and Inventory Pressure Coexist, Limiting Upside Room for Aluminum Prices] Current macro tailwinds are being released in a concentrated manner, the global rigid supply gap for aluminum has been confirmed, and China’s aluminum ingot inventory has entered initial destocking. Multiple positive factors are providing support for aluminum prices. However, inventory at high levels in China remains the core factor suppressing a sharp price surge. In addition, spot market trading has been relatively weak, and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes this year have been heating up, further limiting upside room for aluminum prices. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether China’s aluminum ingot inventory can maintain sustained destocking, thereby easing the pressure that inventory at high levels exerts on aluminum prices.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Dual Pressure from Policy and Demand, Secondary Aluminum Weekly Operating Rate Pulls Back] ADC12 prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. On the cost side, high-level support, combined with the tightening of reverse invoicing and expectations for production cuts at some enterprises, limits the downside room for prices; however, demand is unlikely to see significant improvement in the short term, and inventory remains in an accumulation cycle, which will continue to suppress upside room for prices. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the recovery of end-use consumption and the further impact of policies on the scale of production cuts on the supply side.