Cost Support Remains Strong, Aluminum Auxiliary Material Prices Continue Upward Trend [SMM Analysis]

SMM May 11 News:

Prebaked Anode Market: Anodes Strengthened on Both Domestic and Export Fronts in May, Cost Support Points to Positive Outlook in June

[Price Trends] In May 2026, prebaked anode prices continued their upward trend, with domestic and export markets resonating in tandem. In the Chinese market, a Shandong aluminum smelter's May procurement benchmark price was reported at 5,674 yuan/mt, up 3.65% MoM. In the export market, according to SMM survey, May prebaked anode order transaction prices also strengthened, with increases concentrated in the range of $30–60/mt.
[Raw Material Costs] Petroleum coke has fluctuated at highs since May. Domestic refinery maintenance frequency increased, tightening supply expectations continued to strengthen, and coupled with downstream rigid demand support, petroleum coke prices are expected to hold up well in May. Coal tar pitch side, dragged down by slight easing in upstream high-temperature coal tar prices, coal tar pitch prices came under some pressure, but overall declines remained limited.
[Market Outlook] Overall, prebaked anode cost support remains solid. Combined with a certain lag effect in cost pass-through to end-user prices, prebaked anode prices are expected to continue performing well in June.

Aluminum Fluoride Market: Raw Material Costs Support at Highs, Aluminum Fluoride to Maintain Firm Trend

[Price Trends] Downstream aluminum benchmark enterprises' May 2026 tender prices continued a wide-ranging upward pattern, with the final transaction range settling at 11,480–11,600 yuan/mt. Looking back at April, the cost side continued to exert force, especially as sulphuric acid prices climbed strongly and repeatedly hit new periodic highs. Cost-driven momentum dominated market direction, pushing May tender prices significantly higher despite an overall weak supply-demand backdrop.
[Raw Material Costs] Entering May, raw material market trends diverged: fluorite and aluminum hydroxide prices pulled back slightly under pressure, while sulphuric acid prices maintained a firm upward trend, driving the composite cost center of aluminum fluoride to remain firmly at highs and providing effective support for spot prices.
[Supply-Demand Pattern] In terms of supply, high industry production costs and compressed enterprise profit margins led to insufficient production enthusiasm, making it difficult for effective market supply to generate incremental volumes. Demand side, consumption was driven solely by rigid restocking from aluminum enterprises, with no additional demand stimulus for the time being.
[Market Outlook] Based on a comprehensive assessment of cost support and the supply-demand pattern, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to remain more likely to rise than fall in June.