Strong US Dollar Coupled with Confirmed Hawkish Signals Sent Tin Prices Plunging Below the 350,000-yuan Mark [SMM Tin Brief Review]

On March 19, 2026, SHFE and LME came under pressure in tandem. The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 345,730 yuan/mt, down 6.61%, and fell below the key 350,000-yuan level during the session. Three-month LME tin was last quoted at $42,800/mt, down 5.61%.

Sentiment side, in the early hours of March 19 Beijing time, the US Fed announced that it kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations. This marked the second consecutive time the US Fed paused interest rate cuts. The policy statement added new wording that "developments in the Middle East situation carry uncertainty for their economic impact," acknowledging that oil price fluctuations may keep inflation above the 2% target for longer. The dot plot showed that Fed policymakers expected only one rate cut this year and another in 2027, with the exact timing unclear. Among the 19 FOMC members, 7 expected no rate cuts this year, an increase of 1 from last December.

Fed Chairman Powell then released a hawkish signal, explicitly stating that inflation remained stubborn and uncertainty over the outlook had risen, and that rate cuts would not be considered before further improvement in inflation was seen; discussions had already begun within the committee over whether the next step could be a rate hike, although this was not yet the baseline assumption of most officials. Affected by this, all three major US stock indices dropped sharply, while the US dollar remained strong, continuing to pressure non-ferrous metals priced in US dollars.

Although the market had already widely expected no rate cut in March and funds had positioned in advance, confirmation of the decision and the signal of continued US dollar strength materially undermined market support, and after a period of stalemate, futures fell rapidly this afternoon.

Since December 2025, the market had remained cautious amid the continued rise in prices, with limited follow-up. Later, prices hovered at high levels, further suppressing market transactions. As prices declined in recent days, downstream enterprises mostly followed on dips. However, according to current market feedback, spot circulation remained limited, and continued attention should be paid to subsequent delivery inventory flows. End-user side, the market recovered somewhat from the previous two months. However, the semiconductor industry's operating rate is already at a relatively high level, while China's PV market is constrained by policy, leaving limited upward support from demand at present. Continued attention should be paid to demand-side digestion and the frequency of updates.

Short term, tin prices may enter a fluctuating phase after the continued decline. From a long-term perspective, the tin market's downstream development outlook remains positive, and with limited new mine projects coming online globally, the center of tin prices may show a stepwise upward pattern. Continued attention should be paid to the recovery of market demand, the pace of inventory circulation, and changes in macro policy.