[SMM Anti-dumping Analysis] Some Thoughts on Thailand's Initiation of Anti-circumvention Investigation on Cold-rolled Steel Coils from China

Telah Terbit: Jul 3, 2025 16:05

Simpan

Based on the data of the total volume of the involved varieties exported to Thailand as a proportion of China's total export volume, the overall proportion fluctuates between 9% and 12%, which is relatively large. In 2025, the trend of the total volume of the involved varieties exported to Thailand is consistent with the trend of the total export volume of the involved varieties.
Overall, although this is the first time that Thailand has initiated an anti-circumvention investigation on cold-rolled steel from China, in fact, an anti-dumping investigation on cold-rolled steel products from China was initiated as early as August 2012, followed by a final ruling on a sunset review, and on January 23, 2025, a sunset review case was filed again. According to the timeline, a final ruling on the review may be made in early 2026. Considering that anti-dumping measures have been in place for many years and involve a wider range of products, the actual impact of anti-dumping on the involved varieties has already been reflected in previous years.
However, due to the claim by Thai Cold Rolled Steel Sheet Public Company Limited, a domestic producer in Thailand, that Chinese exporters are circumventing anti-dumping duties, an anti-circumvention investigation has been initiated against China again. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total volume of the involved varieties exported from China to Thailand in the first five months of 2025 was 16,300 mt, accounting for 9.39% of China's total export volume of the involved varieties, which has a relatively large overall impact. In extreme cases, this may lead to a decrease of 81,500 mt in China's total export volume in 2026.
Data shows that the top five countries in terms of China's export volume of the involved varieties are Colombia, Indonesia, Brazil, Thailand, and Oman. Thailand ranks high, but compared to the high base of China's total steel exports, this value may be temporarily insignificant and will only affect domestic export varieties. The channel for exporting cold-rolled steel products to Thailand may be further obstructed.

Steel

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