How will aluminum semis exports be affected by the upcoming anti-dumping measures in Q4? [SMM Analysis]

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis in July 2024 reached 587,000 mt, down 3.77% MoM, up 19.9% YoY. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.758 million mt, up 14.1% YoY. In July, the price spread between domestic and overseas markets favored domestic producers' export plans, but the rapid narrowing of the price spread, together with the onset of the traditional off-season and the initial impact of overseas anti-dumping measures, led to a sharp decline in orders from some producers to the US and other regions, weakening the MoM export volume. In Q4, overseas anti-dumping policies are expected to be implemented. In the short term, overseas end-users will maintain multiple procurement measures, but long-term orders remain uncertain. It is expected that the export volume in August will maintain a YoY growth trend.