To what extent will the popular Xiaomi SU7 bring LFP demand?

On the evening of March 28th, the much-anticipated launch of the first Xiaomi car took center stage, following a comprehensive pre-launch marketing campaign and numerous rumors laid to rest. The unveiling of the prices for the eagerly awaited Xiaomi SU7, an electric sports sedan, marked the occasion. The lineup features three configurations, with prices ranging from 215,900 to 299,900 yuan. Astonishingly, within just 27 minutes of its release, it garnered 50,000 reservations, vastly surpassing expectations and trending of Xiaomi's car has undeniably captured the public's attention.
Upon its debut, the vehicle's remarkable success generated significant buzz in the industry, highlighting Xiaomi's strong market influence and the fervent support of its fans.
At noon on the 28th, CATL, a leading battery manufacturer, posted on their official Weibo account that their cutting-edge 'Shenxing' and 'Qilin' batteries would be featured in the vehicles debuting that night, tagged with the hashtag #XiaomiAutomobile. Xiaomi's car launch event, held that evening, led to the belief that these two new CATL battery products would debut in Xiaomi's vehicle lineup. CATL stated that the 'Sagitar' battery has a volumetric grouping efficiency of 77.8%, with a volume energy density increase of over 10%, enabling a driving range of over 800 kilometers. The 'Qilin' battery boasts a power reserve of over 1000 horsepower and a cooling surface area that is four times larger.
During the Xiaomi car launch event, CEO Lei Jun revealed the battery specifications for the three variants of the Xiaomi SU7. The lineup consists of the Standard, Pro, and Max editions, which are priced at 215,900 yuan, 245,900 yuan, and 299,900 yuan, respectively. Out of these variants, two are equipped with power batteries supplied by CATL.
The PPT at the launch event detailed that the Xiaomi SU7 Standard is fitted with a Farasis blade battery, boasting a capacity of 73.6 kWh and a driving range of 700 kilometers. The Xiaomi SU7 Pro is set to feature the Shenxing battery, with a capacity of 94.3 kWh and a range of 830 kilometers. The Xiaomi SU7 Max will be equipped with the ternary Qilin battery, having a capacity of 101 kWh and a driving range of 800 kilometers.
The Shenxing and Qilin batteries are CATL's flagship products, released over the past two years. CATL officially announced its all-capable series versions. The Sagitar battery, introduced by CATL in August last year, is the world's first LFP 4C supercharging battery. The 'C' refers to the rate of the battery's charge and discharge capability, with 4C indicating the battery can be fully charged within a quarter of an hour, or 15 minutes. Under normal temperature conditions, the Shenxing battery can charge for 10 minutes and deliver a driving range of 400 kilometers, with a total range capability of 700 kilometers.
How much demand for LFP cathode materials could the sales surge of Xiaomi automobiles potentially generate? Typically, 1 GWh of LFP batteries corresponds to approximately 2,300 mt of LFP cathode material consumption. To put it into perspective, 1 GWh equates to 1,000,000 kWh. For a Standard edition Xiaomi SU7, about 169.28 kg of LFP cathode material is required, whereas a Pro edition would need roughly 216.89 kg of LFP cathode. Further calculations indicate that the Standard version requires 42.32 kg of lithium carbonate, while the Pro edition needs 54.2 kg.
Behind the significant figure of 50,000 units being booked, we can boldly forecast the incremental demand for LFP. Assuming that orders for the Standard edition account for one-third and the Pro edition also comprises one-third of the total, the Standard edition would theoretically require approximately 2,821 mt of LFP cathode material. In the same vein, the Pro edition would theoretically need about 3,614.5 mt of LFP. Collectively, this amounts to a theoretical total demand of 6,435.5 mt of LFP cathode material.
The Xiaomi SU7 has made a promising start for the brand with orders surpassing expectations, significant media exposure, and a high level of public interest. Yet in an automotive market as competitive as this, Xiaomi, the newcomer, is up against the profound manufacturing heritage of established automakers and the spirited competition of EV start-ups.