Freight is gradually stopped, and nickel prices are running weakly

On February 01, the main Shanghai nickel contract 2403 opened at 127,530 yuan/ton and closed at 126,240 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the close of the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 176062 and an open interest of 88,064 hands. The main Shanghai nickel contract opened at 126,320 yuan/ton yesterday night and closed at 126,850 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from yesterday's afternoon. Yesterday, the main contract price of Shanghai nickel maintained a downward trend, the Spring Festival holiday is coming, the spot market trading atmosphere has turned colder than yesterday, freight has stopped, the spot resources before the holiday tightened, the current supply and demand are weak, and the spot premium trend is differentiated, of which the premium of Jinchuan resources has been slightly raised, and the premium of Russian nickel has weakened slightly. Yesterday, the premium of Jinchuan nickel rose 200 yuan/ton to 3700 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel fell 50 yuan/ton to -100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was flat at -3500 yuan/ton. Yesterday,

Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 156 tons to 11,688 tons, and LME nickel inventories decreased by 222 tons to 71,148 tons. Opinion: Nickel is in a pattern of low inventories, weak expectations, and low margins. In the medium term, nickel supply and demand are short, nickel supply continues to grow, but consumption has not improved, the surplus pattern continues, the current primary nickel has been in a state of comprehensive surplus, refined nickel domestic inventory, LME inventory continues to accumulate, nickel industry chain supply is abundant, coupled with the weakening of nickel ferronickel and nickel sulfate prices in the early stage, the recent decline has risen slightly, the cost of purchased raw materials to produce electronickel has declined compared with the previous period, and the nickel medium line is treated with the idea of maintaining high selling hedging. In the early stage, nickel prices continued to fall, the profits of the nickel industry shrank seriously, and the initiative for nickel prices to decline sharply was insufficient. The current undervaluation of nickel prices compared with other links in the industrial chain has been repaired, and the short-term price may be weak and volatile. Strategy: Neutral. Risks: Refined nickel projects are progressing less than expected, and supply changes in major nickel producing countries.

304 stainless steel varieties 02/01 stainless steel main contract 2403 opened at 13,870 yuan / ton and closed at 13,715 yuan / ton, down 1.19% from the previous trading day's close, the day's trading volume was 146,840 hands, and the open interest was 78,308 hands. The main stainless steel contract opened at 13,700 yuan/ton yesterday night and closed at 13,735 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from yesterday's afternoon. Yesterday, stainless steel futures prices continued to fall, stainless steel spot prices remained stable, most traders are currently in the Spring Festival holiday stage, a small number of businesses are busy with finishing work, the current logistics is basically suspended, the intraday price decline stimulates downstream pick-up, but the actual effect is very little, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is heating up, the actual spot transaction as a whole is general, and the stainless steel spot premium is slightly raised. Yesterday, the stainless steel basis in Wuxi market rose 180 yuan/ton to 420 yuan/ton, the stainless steel basis in Foshan market rose 180 yuan/ton to 420 yuan/ton, and SS futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,855 tons to 67,917 tons. SMM data, yesterday's average ex-factory price of high-nickel pig iron was flat at 932.5 yuan/nickel point. Viewpoint: 304 stainless steel is in a pattern of high actual supply, weak actual demand, expected increase in supply, expected good demand, and no pressure on inventory. In December, stainless steel production rebounded significantly, and terminal consumption did not improve significantly. Recently, the profit situation of stainless steel plants and ferronickel plants has improved significantly, and some stainless steel factories have resumed production, but close to the Spring Festival, some stainless steel factories plan to stop production for maintenance, which may have an impact on the supply of stainless steel in the short term. Supported by costs, in the short term, stainless steel prices or shock operation, but there is a certain surplus of ferronickel and stainless steel production capacity, and the cost of the price center of gravity is still running at a low level, in the long run, stainless steel prices or with the cost of the price of weak operation, follow-up attention to the cost of stainless steel price changes.

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