Nickel and Stainless Steel Operates Stronger than Expected

On a macro level, the domestic market sentiment has rebounded and market confidence has been boosted; The US GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 exceeded expectations, and the expectation of a soft landing continued to rise. The necessity of reducing interest rates as soon as possible has weakened.

Pure nickel: Concerns about the policy outlook in Indonesia and the strengthening cost of electrowinning nickel may provide support for nickel prices.

Nickel sulfate: With cost support and a shortage of spot goods, nickel sulfate may maintain its upward trend.

Nickel Ore: The approval issue of Indonesia's RKAB has disrupted market sentiment, but it has not yet had a practical impact on fundamentals. With the acceleration of Indonesian government approval, concerns may slow down.

NPI: Currently, the NPI link maintains a game, and attention will be paid to the approval issue of Indonesia's RKAB in the future.

Stainless steel: Currently, the supply and demand of stainless steel are weak, with insufficient fundamental support. However, profits are high, and there is a possibility of a return to fundamentals after the continuous rise in market prices.

Overall, with the upcoming Indonesian general election, concerns about policy prospects have intensified, coupled with the upward support of nickel electroplating costs, nickel prices have also rebounded; The supply and demand of stainless steel fundamentals are weak, and there is a possibility of a decline and repair after the market continues to rise. The reference range for SHFE nickel 2402 is 125000-135000 yuan/ton. SS2403 reference range: 13500-14500 yuan/ton.

Operational strategy: In terms of operations, Shanghai nickel short-term light positions are long, while stainless steel light positions are short.

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