SMM Morning Comment For Aluminium Market On November 28

SHANGHAI, November 28(SMM) –

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2401 aluminum contract opened at 18880 yuan/mt, with the highest and lowest prices at 18895 yuan/mt and 18810 yuan/mt before closing at 18825 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt or 0.11%. LME aluminum opened at $2221.5/mt in the previous trading day, with its low and high at $2209/mt and $2235/mt respectively before closing at $2211.5/mt, down 0.65%.

On the macro level, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased, while expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have cooled. The U.S. dollar index continued to fall on Monday, providing some support for aluminum prices. Domestic favorable policies are frequently released, boosting market confidence, and driving aluminum consumption to grow towards the end of the year. In terms of fundamentals, aluminum ingot inventory has basically entered a downward trend. Due to aluminum production cuts in Yunnan, domestic operating production capacity has dropped to around 41.8 million mt, easing supply-side pressure. However, due to recent exchange rate fluctuations, the import window has shown signs of opening. The inflow of imported goods will add to domestic supply. The performance of downstream operating rates is weak in the off-season. SMM believes that the rebound in aluminum prices on Monday was mainly driven by sharp inventory reduction. However, the ongoing off-season means that any upward potential will be limited for short-term aluminum prices, which may mainly fluctuate around 19,000 yuan/mt.