Aluminium stocks are close to 700,000 mt, but further growth will be limited

Domestic aluminium ingot social inventories were 688,000 mt as of Nov 9, up 112,000 mt YoY and over 200,000 mt higher than levels seen before the National Day holiday. Current stocks are the highest in H2 2023 and above levels in the same period of past three years.

SMM forecasts that in early November, aluminium ingot inventories may slightly rise, stabilizing around 700,000 mt. Inventory reduction is expected in late November, with South China starting inventory reduction earlier than Wuxi and Gongyi. If the reduction occurs smoothly and maintains a stable pace, SMM estimates November’s end aluminium ingot inventory to drop to 580,000-630,000 mt, and further decrease to 500,000- 550,000 mt by December’s end.