China Ternary cathode material output in October and forecast for November

In October 2023, China's ternary cathode material production was 56,062 mt, up 1% MoM and down 20% YoY. From January to October 2023, China's cumulative production of ternary cathode material was 512,066 mt, down 4% YoY.

There are differences in the demand side in domestic and overseas markets. In overseas markets, car sales were lower than expected, and overseas battery manufacturers increased their efforts to clear inventories of cathode material. As a result, some cathodes manufacturers saw a significant decline in their low and high nickel production. In the domestic market, EV sales further increased, and demand from leading battery factories and some second-tier battery factories still increased. Therefore, the production of medium and low nickel ternary materials increased. On the digital side, some battery cell factories experienced an increase in demand in October, and some cathode enterprises were willing to offer high discounts, resulting in an increase in deliveries and production.

Entering November, demand has weakened on the digital side, year-end stocking has not emerged under the background of the continued decline in lithium prices and poor orders. Some small factories have stopped production. Demand from overseas EV market has reached a low level due to continued reductions in the early stage, so production schedules are mainly stable in November. In the domestic market, mainstream battery manufacturers still expect further increases in demand for nickel, and some ternary cathodes enterprises have increased their production schedules based on sales. China's ternary cathode material production in November is projected at 56,907 mt, up 1.5% MoM and down 14% YoY.