Output cuts in Yunnan could reduce China aluminum production to 41.49 million mt in 2023

Medium-long term, domestic aluminum supply fluctuation risk persists, mainly from Yunnan's hydro-aluminum smelters. The idle capacity, mainly in Liaoning, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, totals some 1.29 million mt, but isn't ready for quick resumption. Other capacities are under construction or idle due to issues. Despite lucrative profitability, smelters mostly maintained steady production, without immediate voluntary reductions. Yunnan's expected capacity cut is 1.15 million mt, lowering China’s annual output from 41.62 million mt to roughly 41.49 million mt.