According to the latest report released by the World Gold Council ((World Gold Council)), global gold demand in 2021 will increase by 10% over the previous year, gradually recovering from the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic in 2020. Gold demand in China and India, the world's top two gold consumers, is bright.
According to the latest Global Gold demand Trends report released by the World Gold Council, global gold demand was 1147 tons in the fourth quarter of 2021, the highest quarterly level since the second quarter of 2019 and an increase of nearly 50 per cent year-on-year.
For the whole of last year, total global gold demand, excluding over-the-counter trading, reached 4021 tonnes, up 10 per cent from a year earlier.
Among them, the consumer demand for gold ornaments grew the fastest, reaching 2124 tons, an increase of 52 percent over the same period last year, which was basically the same as the total demand in 2019 before the epidemic. This was helped by a strong performance in the fourth quarter, when global consumer demand for gold jewellery reached its highest level since the second quarter of 2013.
此外，受通胀压力上升和新冠疫情持续造成的经济不确定性影响，零售投资者寻求避险，从而推动去年全球金条和金币年需求同比增长31%，达到1180吨的八年高点。
WGC pointed out that in the short term, the price of gold may be affected by real interest rates. However, due to rising inflationary pressures at the beginning of the year and the possibility of a correction in the market, demand for gold as a hedging tool will persist. In addition, consumption and central bank demand are likely to continue to support gold demand.
Global central bank gold reserves rise to their highest level in nearly 30 years
WGC data also show that as a net buyer of gold for 12 years in a row, central banks increased their gold reserves by 463 tons in 2021, 82% higher than in 2020, raising the world's central bank gold reserves to the highest level in nearly 30 years.
However, the pace of central bank purchases slowed in the second half of the year, with net purchases falling 22 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.
Global gold ETF positions have declined.
Global gold ETF positions fell by 173tonnes in 2021, in sharp contrast to record net inflows of 874tonnes in 2020, mainly because some tactical investors scaled back their hedging investments when the novel coronavirus vaccine was launched at the start of the year, and higher interest rates increased the cost of holding gold.
It is worth noting, however, that these outflows account for only a fraction of the 2200 tonnes of global gold ETF inflows over the past five years, suggesting that investors will continue to focus on the value of gold as an important part of the portfolio.
India's gold imports rise to their highest level in 10 years
As concerns about the epidemic eased, Indians flocked to jewelry stores again in 2021, and demand for gold recovered after two years of downturn.
India's wedding and celebration activities picked up across the board in the three months to December, more than doubling the country's gold imports for the whole of last year to about 925tonnes, the highest level since 2011, according to WGC. The data also show that total demand for gold jewellery, coins and bars in India rose 79 per cent last year to 797 tons.
As the world's second-largest gold consumer, India's gold demand prospects remain bright. P.R. Somasundaram, chief executive of WGC India, said, "from 2022, you will see gold demand reach a new normal of 800-850 tonnes," compared with an average of 667 tonnes in India in the five years to 2020.
Mr Somasundaram said novel coronavirus and his variants, as well as global concerns about inflation, interest rates and the geopolitical situation, would remain factors of concern in 2022.
Increased consumption of India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, will help boost global gold prices, but could also widen India's trade deficit and put pressure on the weak rupee.
China's gold jewelry demand increases by 63% compared with the same period last year.
In 2021, the demand for gold ornaments in China, the world's largest gold consumer, reached 675 tons, an increase of 63 percent over the same period last year, while the total demand for gold bars and coins reached 286 tons, an increase of 44 percent over the same period last year.
Wang Lixin, CEO of the World Gold Council in China, said that China's gold demand as a whole showed a strong trend in 2021. The main drivers of the increase in gold jewelry demand in the Chinese market include stable economic growth, low gold prices and the popularity of high-weight products such as ancient gold jewelry.
In response to the sharp increase in investment demand for gold in the Chinese market, Wang Lixin said that in addition to relatively low gold prices and stable economic growth, increased sales of physical gold products by local commercial banks are also key factors driving growth.
Wang Lixin also predicts that looking forward to 2022, the relatively stable outlook for gold prices may provide support for the demand for gold ornaments in the Chinese market in 2022.
