SMM January 25th: according to the spot quotation of SMM, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 35.6-364000 yuan / ton today, with an average price of 360000 yuan / ton, an increase of 5000 yuan a day. According to SMM historical price statistics, since the beginning of 2022, the average spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased by 82000 yuan / ton, an increase of 29.5%.
"Click to view the spot historical price of SMM new energy products.
At the same time, the performance of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, which has continued to rise recently, is not inferior today. its spot quotation has risen to 29.4-303000 yuan / ton, and the average price has risen 5000 yuan a day to 298500 yuan / ton, further away from the 300000 yuan mark. SMM historical prices show that since the beginning of 2022, the average spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium hydroxide has increased by 76000 yuan / ton, or 34.16%.
On the news side, after the set on January 24, the new energy track ushered in a big piece of news. The State Council officially issued the "14th five-year Plan Comprehensive work Plan for Energy Saving and Emission reduction", which clearly mentioned that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new cars.
There is no doubt that this news is absolutely good news for the new energy track, but today the performance of the lithium sector is mediocre, and the lithium battery index closed down more than 3.5%. As of today's close, the lithium battery index has fallen 10.74% this year.
But on the contrary, the spot price of lithium-related products has been showing a rising trend. From the recent performance forecast of the major lithium industry chain enterprises in 2021, it can be found that the lithium plate is positive frequently. For its related stock price "falling endlessly" situation, some industry analysts said that the stock price correction since the New year is more of a valuation repair of the previous share price rising too fast, and some institutions have adjusted their positions and exchanged shares after the beginning of the year.
Some institutional personages commented that after a wave of correction, the valuation risk of some stocks has been released to a certain extent, and according to the latest tone of the State Council, the new energy track will remain high for some time in the future. the certainty of future performance growth is still large.
As for lithium carbonate, according to SMM research, in the case of lithium carbonate supply reduction caused by the overhaul of some lithium salt enterprises, the market has even faced a situation that is difficult to obtain. At the same time, the supply side is reduced, but the demand side continues to rise under the blessing of the three yuan and iron lithium plates, and the supply gap of lithium carbonate continues to enlarge.
Chuang Chuang Securities also said that taking into account the winter salt lake maintenance and the impact of the epidemic in South Africa, the short-term tight supply of lithium and cobalt may be difficult to change. Huaan Securities believes that lithium salt manufacturers have entered the maintenance period one after another, and the supply is tight and catalytic prices are expected to rise. At present, the stock in advance of the Trade Festival is basically completed, and the market trading volume near the Spring Festival has decreased, and the high lithium price is expected to maintain a stable operation.
Open source securities even said that with the rapid increase in the penetration of new energy vehicles in the next few years, global lithium battery shipments are expected to reach 1300-1500GWH in 2024, measured by lithium carbonate consumption of a single GWh. Lithium carbonate demand is expected to exceed 1 million tons in 2024 and more than 1.5 million tons in 2025 (lithium battery 1700-2000GWh shipments).
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