Lithium salt plants that sold lithium concentrate at the spot price of lithium carbonate at the previous two high-level auctions have kept profits, while Pilbara will have its third auction on October 26th. It is reported that the spot market of lithium concentrate is still in short supply, and the rational price range of this auction is expected to be 2500-2800 US dollars / ton.
Unlike the previous two times, due to positive production restrictions and other reasons, the growth rate of lithium salt prices was weak in October. According to statistics, the price of lithium carbonate rose 41% in September, but it has risen only 5% so far in October. And all the enterprises are in the state of exploratory quotation, and the transaction is relatively few. However, the shortage of battery-grade lithium carbonate market has not been significantly alleviated, with the demand for lithium iron phosphate at the end of the year, the price upward trend is still there.
There is still room for the price of lithium concentrate to go up.
Pilbara has put its lithium concentrate at two auctions on the trading platform this year, with prices of $1250 / tonne (FOB) and $2240 / tonne (FOB), both of which exceeded market expectations at that time, when some experts called them "crazy". However, when the price of lithium carbonate (if not specified, all battery grade) is only "one step away" from the target price of 200000 yuan / ton, the bidders of lithium concentrate can rest assured.
The first two auctions were encouraging, but the price rise in lithium carbonate slowed in October. According to Longzhong data, the average price of lithium carbonate rose from 129000 yuan / ton on September 1 to 182500 yuan / ton on September 30, up 41% in September. On October 25, the average price of lithium carbonate was 192500 yuan / ton, up 5% so far in October.
Under the above circumstances, the market is still looking forward to the auction price of lithium concentrate. Qu Yinfei said that the spot market of lithium concentrate is still in a state of shortage, the price of lithium concentrate association is constantly adjusting, and the spot price is also constantly rising, so the third lithium concentrate still has some flexibility to rise.
Considering that the average transaction price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the current market is 192500 yuan / ton, and the transaction of sporadic orders has reached 200000 yuan / ton, the shipment period of lithium concentrate should be in February of 22 years. Qu Yinfei combined with the future market cost and profit forecast that the rational price range of this auction should be 2500-2800 US dollars / ton (FOB), but the shortage of spodumene concentrate in the current market does not rule out the possibility of taking ore at a high price, so the high auction price is also likely to exceed 3000 US dollars / ton (FOB).
The limitation of positive electrode affects the increase of Lithium Salt
It is shown that in September, the influence of lithium iron phosphate is about 10%, and that of ternary materials is about 15%.
At the same time, the price increase of lithium salt slows down and may rebound at the end of the year.
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