The rise in the price of raw materials gives birth to lithium battery "replacement" mature products in Ningde era are about to be released, but some analysts "pour cold water"

At the 2020 shareholders' meeting held by Ningde Times on May 21, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of the company, revealed that Ningde Times will release Na ion batteries around July 2021. "our technology is also developing, and our Na ion batteries have matured."

However, Zeng Yuqun also said that the Na ion battery of Ningde era is not very cheap as soon as it comes out, because the entire supply chain is very small and the cost is more expensive than lithium battery.

Some analysts said that from the current point of view, the substitution of Na battery for lithium battery is actually very weak. Considering that the reserves of Na are more abundant than lithium, more attention should be paid to the strategic significance of Na battery as a technology reserve and energy security, but its commercial value should not be overestimated.

Serious mismatch between supply and demand of upstream materials gives birth to cheap substitutes

The working principle of Na ion battery is similar to that of lithium battery, but it has outstanding advantages. First of all, the raw material reserves are abundant and easy to obtain, so the cost is lower; secondly, the energy density and performance are better, the working life is longer, and the charging speed is faster.

The idea of replacing lithium with cheaper Na is not new in the battery industry. As early as 2017, researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute for Materials Test and Development and the University of Geneva in Switzerland developed samples of all-solid-state Na ion batteries.

However, the technology of Na ion battery only tends to mature in recent years. At the beginning of 2019, the Na ion battery independently developed by domestic enterprise Star Na has entered the stage of mass production. China Kehai Na's Na ion battery products have also been mass produced in 2020.

At present, due to the strengthening of environmental governance by governments and the increase of investment in electric vehicles by automobile companies, the demand for battery raw materials is increasing. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by 291% from January to April compared with the same period last year, driving the installed capacity of power batteries to increase by about 241% compared with the same period last year. Overseas markets achieved 96% year-on-year increase in installed capacity in the first quarter according to SNE Research statistics.

The recent increase in the price of upstream materials for lithium batteries clearly illustrates this point. Since 2020, the price of raw materials upstream of lithium battery has remained high. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate in the field of electrolyte, lithium carbonate upstream of cathode material, petroleum coke and needle coke upstream of anode material have all risen sharply.

On the other hand, the demand for new energy vehicles continues to increase, and the supply capacity of upstream nickel, cobalt and other key resources is becoming a constraint to the development of new energy vehicle industry. Ensuring the safety of the industrial chain will become the core competitiveness of enterprises.

In this context, Ningde era, Rongbai Technology and other enterprises have locked in part of the supply of raw materials in advance, through strategic cooperation with cobalt and nickel suppliers to enhance the guarantee capacity of raw materials.

The Na ion battery undoubtedly provides another possibility for cost reduction.

It is still suitable for the mainstream application field of non-lithium battery in the early stage of industrialization.

Although the Na ion battery products of Ningde era are about to be launched, the Na ion battery is still in the initial stage of industrialization, and there are great differences in the industrialized Na ion battery system in different countries. At present, there is no relatively clear and clear route, and the product performance, cost control and adaptation application scenarios need to be further tested.

In terms of performance, the volume and mass energy density of Na ion battery is only about half of that of lithium ion battery, and its performance is far lower than that of ternary iron lithium battery.

In terms of cost, compared with mature lithium-ion batteries such as ternary iron lithium, the production cost of Na-ion battery system is difficult to control, the cost advantage of BOM is difficult to play, and the price is at a disadvantage because of the immature process, large amortization of R & D equipment and product consistency.

Taking into account the above factors, and Na ion battery is not a new technology, related research started early and has been applied, there is no so-called "breakthrough" innovation, more technical iteration, northeast securities analyst Zeng Zhiqin believes that Na battery can not replace the mainstream technology direction of lithium power field for the time being.

However, compared with the lower-end lead-acid battery and lithium manganate battery, Na ion battery has higher cost, and better energy density, cycle life, high and low temperature performance and rate performance. It has application potential in scenarios with low battery energy density, such as distributed Electroweb energy storage, low-speed cars, communication base stations and power supply for fixed facilities such as surveillance cameras.

At present, the main power supplies of this kind of facilities are iron lithium battery and lead-acid battery, and Na ion battery will provide more choice.

Zeng Zhiqin also said that from the current point of view, the substitution of Na battery for lithium battery is actually very weak. Considering that the reserves of Na are more abundant than lithium, more attention should be paid to the strategic significance of Na battery as a technology reserve and energy security, but its commercial value should not be overestimated.

List of related companies

As for investment opportunities, domestic representative enterprises such as Kehai Na, Na innovative Energy, Star Na Power and so on are not listed on the market.

Among the battery material suppliers, Rongbai Technology actively carries out research on cathode materials for Na ion batteries.

Xinwanda is developing Na ion battery cutting-edge products, with Na ion battery Na supplement method and Na ion battery patent.

Huayang said its subsidiary Na ion battery positive and negative materials project is in the early stage of preparation.

Great Wall of China has subordinate companies engaged in Na battery research and production, with Na ion battery material pretreatment technology, the research and development of Na ion battery has been applied to electric bicycles.

Shengyang Co., Ltd. has jointly developed high environmental protection and high cycle Na ion batteries with academician workstations, which has passed the experimental stage.

In addition, Na raw material suppliers are also expected to benefit. Previously, metal Na is mainly used in the production of indigo dyes and pharmaceutical intermediates, and the final downstream corresponds to the textile and pharmaceutical industries. The increasing demand for metal Na in emerging fields such as Na sulfur batteries is expected to open up another broad prospect for the metal Na market.

Among the listed companies, China Salt Chemical is the leader of the world metal Na industry and has the largest metal Na production base in the world, with a production capacity of 65000 tons / year, accounting for 41.01% of the total domestic design capacity. at the same time, the company is the only domestic enterprise with high purity Na production qualification, with absolute scale and technology leadership.