Last week's US job creation data was much lower than expected, gold prices rebounded, market expectations for Fed interest rate increases weakened again, and the continued low interest rate environment and rising inflation expectations are expected to bring the gold price rebound window. In 2021, the total profits of Q1 domestic non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises reached 65.18 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4 times over the same period last year, with an average growth rate of 70.3% in two years. From the price point of view, Q1 copper and aluminum spot prices are close to 10-year highs, considering the domestic real estate cycle pull, global economic demand recovery continues to pick up liquidity, copper and aluminum prices are expected to hit new highs.
Carbon neutralization brings about the advancement of the aluminum industry chain. More than 85% of the energy structure of electrolytic aluminum is still thermal power, considering the increase in the proportion of clean energy and the bottleneck of hydropower resources in southwest China, the release of new capacity may not be as good as the growth of demand, and the new capacity with the advantage of hydropower cost is expected to maintain a high profit advantage in the new round of upward aluminum prices. at the same time, the total ceiling of electrolytic aluminum is controllable, and the proportion of recycled aluminum is expected to increase gradually with demand growth. From the perspective of overall supply and demand, electrolytic aluminum downstream construction / electricity / automobile, the cycle after the completion of real estate leads to demand growth, alumina continues to remain low, and high profitability of the industry is expected to continue. Recommend cloud aluminum shares, pay attention to Shenhuo shares, Tianshan aluminum industry, China Hongqiao.
Copper: Chile's supply disturbance increases, continuing to benefit from liquidity and demand recovery. Under the influence of the 2020 epidemic, supply and demand are both weak, and the tight balance of copper continues until 2021, especially when no new mines are put into production in the first half of the year. the recovery rate of the demand side of traditional infrastructure and emerging Electroweb / rechargeable piles will exceed that of the supply side. Chile, a copper-producing country with a global share of more than 4 percent, has blocked its border, and short-term supply disturbances continue to strengthen. At the same time, Q2 traditional peak season demand may continue to exceed expectations, global inventories are expected to continue to fall, copper prices are expected to continue to hit record highs under the influence of liquidity and demand, and miners' profits are expected to continue to exceed expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Yunnan Copper and Jiangxi Copper and so on.
Metal prices: precious metals prices rebounded. Last week's US employment data was much lower than expected, Fed easing was expected to continue to exceed expectations, precious metals prices rebounded, COMEX gold and silver rebounded by 3 per cent and 6.1 per cent, and Shanghai gold / silver rebounded by 1.6 per cent and 4.7 per cent respectively. The price center of precious metals fluctuates, and silver is expected to be more flexible to benefit from industrial properties at the same time. Copper prices exceeded 10,000 yuan, and basic metals continued to rise. Last week, LME copper prices surged 5.6 per cent to more than $10,000 a tonne, while aluminium, zinc, nickel, lead and tin rose 3.3 per cent, 2.4 per cent, 2.4 per cent, 2 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively. In the medium term, under the background of overseas infrastructure policy stimulus and domestic real estate post-cycle recovery, the economically sensitive copper and zinc and real estate post-cycle related electrolytic aluminum are expected to continue to repair and rebound. The price of rare earths has been adjusted slightly. Last week, praseodymium-neodymium oxide, terbium oxide and dysprosium oxide adjusted 1.2%, 2.5% and 3.8%.
Under the background of the global epidemic, the attribute of strategic resources is strengthened, and the demand for magnetic materials is expected to bring the price center upward of the main varieties of light and light rare earths. Molybdenum price rebounded germanium pullback. Last week, the price of molybdenum in small metals rebounded by 1.2%, the price of germanium was adjusted by 7.9%, the price of lithium and cobalt remained stable, and other varieties did not change much.
Risk hints: the risk of changes in the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve; the risk of a weaker-than-expected global economy, a sharp fall in commodity prices, lower-than-expected demand for new energy and a much higher-than-expected supply of lithium and
