SMM4 March 23: metals on the outer disk rose and fell yesterday, while Lun Copper fell on Thursday on concerns that China would stabilize commodity prices to curb inflation, and investors took profits after a big rally. Many analysts have raised their target price for copper to well above $10000 a tonne in anticipation of increased demand from electric vehicles and renewable energy Electroweb. However, the recent rally in copper prices has been limited by weak physical demand from the industrial sector and recent warnings from Chinese officials that they will take action to stabilise commodity prices to curb inflation. Huang Libin, spokesman for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and director of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau, said on the 20th that overall, the rise in commodity prices has an impact on the manufacturing industry, but the impact is generally controllable. In the next step, together with the relevant departments, we will actively take measures to stabilize the prices of raw materials. Most LME metals were red in early trading. As of 09:30 in the morning, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.5%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 0.3%, and Lun Zinc. Lun lead and Lun Ni are up nearly 0.1%, while Lunxi is flat. On the domestic side, the metal market has ups and downs. International copper is up nearly 0.1%, Shanghai copper is flat, Shanghai aluminum is up nearly 0.3%, Shanghai lead is up nearly 1%, Shanghai zinc is down nearly 0.4%, Shanghai nickel is down nearly 0.8%, and Shanghai tin is down nearly 1%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, overnight data showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to a new low during the epidemic last week. Optimistic expectations of a sustained economic recovery warmed up the macro mood, and copper remained high during the recovery period. However, it is reported that Biden plans to sharply increase the capital gains tax on the rich to a maximum of 43.4%, dampening the market's risk appetite, US stocks suffered the biggest decline in five weeks, and the overnight rebound in the dollar index put some pressure on copper futures. It is expected to be today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the rebound of US index caused copper futures to fall slightly and the spot transaction continued to be seesaw.
In terms of aluminum, the increment of electrolytic aluminum supply in April is limited, the impact of concentrated production reduction and maintenance in Inner Mongolia appears, and the scale of new imports is expected to be subject to the influence of shipping schedule, so the overall supply scale in April is not expected. On the other hand, there is still some downstream fear of heights on the consumer side, and the pace of stock preparation is elongated and relatively cautious. It is suggested that the upstream should increase the shipping efforts, the downstream procurement should be based on demand, and be cautious to pursue higher.
[minutes of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] the stock of aluminum society continues to move away from the warehouse and the aluminum price supports a strong upward shift in the center of gravity.
In terms of lead, overnight, the Shanghai lead bulls increased their positions again, continuing the high shock of the rally at the end of the day, recording a small negative column. Under the shock of high lead prices, trading in the spot market is expected to remain light, and in the short term, we may still need to guard against the risk of a decline in lead pressure in Shanghai. During the day, we will pay attention to whether the lead bulls in Shanghai will once again make efforts to boost Shanghai lead to break through the first-line target of 15400 yuan / ton. Lead in stock today is expected to be higher than that of yesterday.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] overnight, Shanghai lead was strong, shock, recycled lead smelter, sticker, micro-expansion, and active shipments.
Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded five even Yin, the top of each short moving average to form a suppression, the lower 60-day moving average to provide support. The shortage of zinc ingots has not changed in the short-term fundamentals, the smelter cost provides the basic support for the zinc price, and there is still procurement downstream of the low price, and the expected short-term zinc price still maintains a fluctuating pattern. Short-term attention.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] Zinc recorded in Shanghai overnight was expected to maintain a concussion pattern in the short term.
In terms of nickel, the overnight Shanghai Nickel 2106 contract opened at 119790 yuan / ton, fluctuated in a narrow range around 120100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the session, and bulls left under pressure. Shanghai Nickel fell 119200 yuan / ton to close at 119400 yuan / ton, down 1100 yuan / ton, or 0.91%, compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 317000 lots, the position increased by 2775 lots to 179000 lots, and the overnight Shanghai Nickel closed at Xiaoyin column. Shanghai Nickel's center of gravity this week showed a downward trend as a whole. Support at the lower 119000 gate. Lenny, which opened at $16000 a tonne today, may remain low in wide-range concussion operation today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Dollar Index rebound period Nickel Down Nickel spot Market is still running smoothly
In terms of the black system, the thread rose nearly 0.4%, the hot coil rose nearly 0.1%, coking coal and coke rose nearly 0.6%, iron ore was flat, stainless steel rose nearly 0.1%, yesterday even iron fluctuated in a narrow range, and the port spot market was basically stable in early trading. Some merchants are optimistic about the future, and they are less willing to sell and ship goods today, while some merchants buy goods at bargain prices, and the overall market trading atmosphere is weakening today. In addition, near the May Day holiday, some steel mills are still in need of pre-festival replenishment. PB powder in Shandong area traded 1235-1240 yuan / ton, up and down from yesterday.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Thread market replenishment demand is expected to be good and short-term high shock operation is expected.
Crude oil fell nearly 0.3 per cent in the previous period, and international crude oil futures prices were basically flat on Thursday, offsetting expectations that a rise in novel coronavirus cases in India and Japan would lead to a drop in energy demand. Analysts point out that the market recognizes that global oil demand cannot pick up without a recovery in the world's largest economy. India is getting deeper and deeper into a major crisis, with the number of infections setting a new record every day.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.3%, and Shanghai silver fell nearly 1.1%. On Thursday, Comex gold futures closed down for the first day in three trading days, and investors paid close attention to factors such as the surge in novel coronavirus cases in India and other countries. Analysts point out that gold prices continue to rise, setting weekly highs and lows for three weeks since retesting the September low of $1680 hit in March. In the two major markets, China and India, consumer demand is providing strong support, while the rate of ETF outflows from the west is slowing significantly.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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