SMM4 March 20: metal on the outer disk rose and fell yesterday, and Lun Copper closed higher on Monday. Many analysts and traders expect copper prices to hit a 10-year high, helped by record highs in global stock markets and a fall in the dollar. Investors are optimistic about the prospects for the global economic recovery after the epidemic, pushing the stock market higher. Copper prices were boosted by a fall in US bond yields, which pushed stocks higher and depressed the dollar, which made metals cheaper for non-US buyers. Most LME metals were red in early trading. As of 09:30, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.4%, Lun Aluminum fell slightly, Lun Zinc rose slightly, Lun Nickel rose nearly 0.2%, Lunxi rose nearly 1.2%, Lun lead rose nearly 0.1%, domestic copper and Shanghai Copper rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai Aluminum fell slightly, Shanghai lead rose nearly 1%, Shanghai Zinc fell nearly 0.6%, Shanghai Nickel fell nearly 0.8%, and Shanghai Tin fell nearly 0.7%.
On the copper side, on the macro front, expectations of a Fed rate hike cooled again before the Fed entered the policy decision, and the dollar index continued its downward trend, causing copper prices to rise sharply yesterday. Last night, the US index fluctuated around 91.1, and the center of gravity of copper prices was lower than during the day, but it was still at a relatively high position in the near future.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the center of gravity of copper futures remains high at night. It is expected that the spot market will hardly recover significantly.
In terms of aluminum, the increment of electrolytic aluminum supply in April is limited, the impact of concentrated production reduction and maintenance in Inner Mongolia appears, and the scale of new imports is expected to be subject to the influence of shipping schedule, so the overall supply scale in April is not expected. On the other hand, there is still some downstream fear of heights on the consumer side, and the pace of stock preparation is elongated and relatively cautious. It is recommended that the upstream increase shipping efforts, downstream procurement according to demand, carefully chase high.
[summary of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] domestic aluminum bars and ingots maintain the state of going out of stock to support the high shock of aluminum prices.
In terms of lead, overnight, LME lead inventory continued to go to the warehouse slightly, Lun lead strengthened again, recording Liulianyang, standing on the 60-day moving average, the center of gravity obviously moved up, paying attention to the continuation of Lun lead bullish market during the day, and standing firmly on the 60-day moving average. Overnight, Shanghai lead short positions are reduced to avoid risks, and the overhaul of primary lead smelters on the supply side and the impact of environmental inspectors on recycled lead will still provide some support for Shanghai lead. During the day, attention will be paid to whether Shanghai lead can stand on the 15200-ton line. Lead in stock today is expected to be higher than that of yesterday.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] lead led by overnight lead gains in Shanghai lead strengthens spot market supply and demand
In terms of zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a bald negative column, the lower 5 / 10 moving average adhesion support, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form compression. The overnight outer disk dragged down the performance of Shanghai zinc, but it was still running at a high level, and the short-term zinc supply side was tight and continued, which supported the zinc price, but the demand side showed weak seasonality and low acceptance to the high price zinc, which made the zinc price go up and bear pressure.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] Zinc prices are both weak in supply and demand, short-term or high shock.
In terms of nickel, overnight Shanghai nickel closed at the small negative column, the Boll line recently ran almost parallel, and the range of the upper and lower tracks was narrowed. Renni fluctuated broadly yesterday, with a center of gravity around $16150 / ton at $16120 / ton, down $60 / ton, or 0.37%, compared with the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 4793 lots, the position decreased by 318 lots to 219000 lots, Lunni closed at Xiaoyin column, and the outer trading volume was less. Lenny opened at 16245 U.S. dollars / ton today. There is no new news about macro-positive factors for the time being, and the fundamental empty pattern has not changed.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the mainstream transaction price of Ferro-nickel has fallen, and the decline of stainless steel has not stopped.
In terms of the black system, the thread fell nearly 0.4%, the hot coil fell nearly 0.6%, the coking coal fell nearly 1.5%, the coke dropped nearly 0.3%, the iron ore rose nearly 0.7%, the stainless steel fell nearly 0.3%, and the news surface. The new version of the "measures for the implementation of capacity replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry" has completed the stages of soliciting opinions and revision, and is currently going through the final process. This means that since the beginning of 2020, China's steel capacity replacement and project filing work has been suspended for a year and a half, steel capacity replacement will start again. An authoritative source said that at present, some deep-seated contradictions in the iron and steel industry have not yet been fundamentally resolved. Capacity replacement is an important means to achieve the organic combination of strictly prohibited new capacity and structural adjustment, which will contribute to the implementation of a new round of "capacity removal", guide China's steel enterprises to optimize capacity deployment and adjust regional layout.
[SMM Steel Market Morning News] the "measures for the implementation of capacity replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry" is about to introduce a new round of "capacity removal".
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 0.1%, and international crude oil futures prices closed higher on Monday. Oil prices have been supported by news that production has been suspended in some oil fields in Libya, while investors are weighing some of the latest signals on supply and demand for crude oil. Analysts pointed out that in view of the new anti-epidemic blockade measures imposed in India and other novel coronavirus epidemic hotspots, the market is somewhat worried about future crude oil demand, but so far, these alarming news are not enough to erase the increase in oil prices in 2021.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.8%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 1%. Comex gold futures closed lower on Monday, giving up some of the gains recorded last week. Us bond yields rose, hitting the attractiveness of unyielding gold and outweighing the support of a weaker dollar. The dollar fell to a six-week low against other major currencies on Monday, as markets priced in the sharp fall in U.S. Treasury yields last week as the Fed reiterated that the rise in inflation could be temporary. The recent rise in global stock markets to record highs shows an improvement in risk sentiment and puts pressure on the dollar.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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