SMM3 March 15: metal on the outer disk rose and fell on Friday, with copper up 0.8%, zinc down 0.37%, aluminum down 0.39%, Lenny down 1.47%, Lunxi down 1.93%, Len lead up 1.47%, LME (LME) copper rose on Friday, as investors were encouraged by US economic data and hoped that infrastructure spending plans would boost demand for metals. Data released on Friday showed that the US producer price index ((PPI)) rose strongly in February and consumer confidence rose to an one-year high. After passing the large-scale novel coronavirus rescue plan, the Biden administration will next turn to large-scale infrastructure investment legislation. Most of the LME metal market was red in early trading today. By about 09:20 in the morning, Lun Copper rose nearly 1.1%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 1.4%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 1.2%, Lun Ni rose nearly 0.5%, Lun Xi fell nearly 1.3%, Lun lead rose nearly 0.8%, domestic copper rose nearly 1.4%, Shanghai Copper rose nearly 1.3%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 2%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 1%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai Nickel fell nearly 1.1%, Shanghai Tin fell nearly 2.8%.
On the copper side, on the macro front, the $1400 grant under the Biden government's $1.9 trillion bailout bill began on Friday, and the macro mood continues to be optimistic. On the data side, producer prices in the United States accelerated in February, and the initial confidence consumption index rose to 83 in March, a new high during the epidemic, while Treasury Secretary Yellen still said the risk of inflation was small and manageable. Macro continued to improve, Friday night trading copper rose. This week, we will follow the direction of the Fed's interest rate decision to guide the market. Spot, today is the last day before delivery and exchange month, if the price difference between two months is steady and falling, the discount to 04 contract will be narrowed steadily. It is expected to be 9100-9180 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 67200-67800 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today. It is estimated that the spot water is 10 yuan / ton today-120 yuan / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the macro aspect continues to improve and boost market sentiment. Today, we focus on the big domestic data.
Aluminum, the short-term Shanghai aluminum continued high wide range concussion. Inner Mongolia energy consumption double control continuous fermentation, fundamentals, the current domestic consumption of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation rate slows down, at the same time, with the recovery of downstream demand, inventory inflection point may be about to appear, continue to pay attention to the change of short sentiment in the medium term, it is recommended to increase upstream shipments, downstream procurement is based on demand, careful to catch up. Fundamentals pay attention to the impact of double control of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia and its impact on short-term mood fluctuations in the market.
[summary of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] double-controlled continuous fermentation of Shanghai Aluminum with energy consumption in Inner Mongolia continues to continue high-level concussion.
Lead, last Friday night, Shanghai lead strong shock, recorded a long shadow line positive pillar. The recent consumption of lead downstream is stable, or it is difficult to give Shanghai lead a strong rebound. However, the restrictions on the production of recycled lead and the slight decline of waste batteries also make the first line of 14600 yuan / ton of lead in Shanghai to support. This week, Shanghai lead may usher in a short-term pullback trend. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run at 14600-15000 yuan / ton in the short term. During the day, we will pay attention to whether Shanghai lead will continue to challenge and stand firm at 14800 yuan / ton.
[minutes of the SMM Morning meeting] lead stopped falling and rebounded in the inner and outer trading last Friday night. The extent of the social bank may slow down this week.
On the zinc side, zinc fell on Friday as rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar weighed down on concerns that massive fiscal stimulus and pent-up consumer demand could lead to higher inflation as the blockade ended as the range of vaccinations expanded. Last Friday, Shanghai zinc recorded a negative column, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form a compression, the lower 5-day moving average to provide support. High zinc prices, light transactions in the spot market and increased social inventory, superimposed recent northern environmental production restrictions also limit the production of some galvanizing enterprises. Pay short-term attention to the production restriction of environmental protection in the north.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the social stock of zinc increased on Friday and paid short-term attention to the efforts to limit the production of environmental protection in the north.
In terms of nickel, the consumption of pure nickel market as a whole is relatively stable this week, with low-price downstream on-demand procurement and lower stock enthusiasm compared with the previous month. The spot market of battery-grade nickel sulfate is still tight, but due to the deep decline in nickel prices, the recent spot price of battery-grade nickel sulfate may follow the downward trend, but it is expected that based on the current performance of terminal consumption, nickel sulfate will remain at a high premium to nickel beans. Objectively speaking, the fundamentals are not bad. The contract price of Shanghai Nickel main Company is expected to run at 118000 to 126000 yuan / ton. Renni is expected to operate at US $15700 to US $16,500 per ton.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel fundamentals run smoothly without bright spots and bulls are not confident enough to consolidate low nickel levels during the period of lack of confidence.
In terms of black series, threads fell by nearly 0.8%, hot rolls slightly, coking coal by nearly 2.6%, coke by nearly 3.2%, iron ore by nearly 4.6%, and stainless steel by nearly 1.4%. In terms of iron ore, inventories at 35 ports tracked by SMM totaled 121.88 million tons as of March 12, an increase of 1.02 million tons from last week and 12.54 million tons from the same period last year. In this period, the average daily open port volume increased by 124000 tons to 2.591 million tons compared with the previous period. this week, the ban on opening ports in Tangshan area was lifted, and the local ports gradually returned to normal level. In this period, Shandong radiation steel enterprises continued the normal procurement pace, and the dredging volume of the local main port increased slightly compared with the previous period, but in the past two periods, the amount of imported mines from Shandong and the two ports showed a decline, leading to a slight decline in port inventory. In addition, there has been a small drop in the number of ports in the river and some ports in the south, and the local port depots have continued to accumulate. Taking into account the recent arrival of iron ore and the slight decline in Australian port outbound, the short-term port inventory accumulation rate is expected to continue to decline.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] under the trend of "carbon neutralization", environmental protection production restrictions continue to be tightened.
The previous period of crude oil rose nearly 0.6 per cent, while US crude oil futures closed down on Friday, but settled close to $70 a barrel, supported by production cuts in major oil-producing countries and optimism about a recovery in demand in the second half of the year. Us President Joe Biden signed the novel coronavirus epidemic relief bill totaling 1.9 trillion US dollars at the White House on the 11th. This is the first major legislative motion passed by Congress during Biden's term of office. "this historic legislation will rebuild the backbone of the country," he said before signing the bill.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.7% and Shanghai silver rose nearly 0.8%. Gold futures fell on Friday due to rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar, but gold prices rose weekly this week. Treasury bond prices fell sharply on Friday, pushing benchmark 10-year yields to their highest level in more than a year on continued optimism about the US economic outlook and expectations that with the approval of the $1.9 trillion novel coronavirus stimulus package, the supply of US Treasuries will increase.
As of 09:20, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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