SMM3, June 2: there were mixed ups and downs in metals on the outer disk yesterday, with tin prices for (LME) futures on the London Metal Exchange falling more than 10% at one point, as technical selling was triggered after hitting a nine-year high last week, prompting investors to lock in profits, but supply shortages limited the decline. Tight supply and strong demand for electronics have boosted manufacturing growth in Asia, pushed up tin prices and led to a sharp rise in spot prices over futures. Analysts pointed out that in the past month, not only tin prices have risen sharply, but all metal prices have risen sharply, and investors are seizing the opportunity to take profits. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:30, Lun Copper fell nearly 0.3%, Lun Zinc fell nearly 1%, Lun Aluminum fell nearly 0.1%, Lunxi Nickel fell nearly 0.7%, Lunxi rose nearly 1.4%, Lunxi lead rose slightly, and the domestic metal market plummeted across the board. International copper fell nearly 1.6%, Shanghai copper fell nearly 1.5%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 1%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 1.1%, and Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.9%, the domestic metal market is down nearly 1.6%, Shanghai copper is down nearly 1.5%, Shanghai aluminum is down nearly 1%, Shanghai lead is down nearly 1.1%, and Shanghai zinc is down nearly 0.9%. Shanghai nickel fell nearly 1.7%, Shanghai tin fell nearly 3.7%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, it was released at night that the US ISM manufacturing index rose at the fastest pace in 23 years in February, and the positive data boosted the US index back above the 91 mark, and copper futures continued to fall under pressure. In addition, crude oil, US Oil plunged more than 2% yesterday, brushing a recent one-week low to 59.96 US dollars per barrel, also bearish copper futures. However, we believe that there are still many macro-positive factors at present, and the space for copper pullback is expected to be limited. On the spot side, at the beginning of March, long order transactions will open, market activity will return to trading heat, and traders will be more interested in buying at a discount, but as the market continues to repair, some market volume will further increase. It is expected that the discount will continue to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper performance continues to decline when the dollar index hits a three-week high
In terms of aluminum, as the early bulls make a profit out of the market, Shanghai Aluminum will usher in a certain correction in the short term, but the depth of the correction is expected to be relatively limited. In the medium term, we continue to pay attention to the mood changes of long bears, and suggest that downstream purchases should be based on demand and be cautious to chase higher. Fundamentals are concerned about the impact of new messages from the "two sessions" on short-term mood swings in the market. Domestic unilateral recommendations to be cautious to pursue more; domestic recommendations to continue to hold positive sets; internal and external suggestions to try anti-sets.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Shanghai Aluminium and Lun Aluminum both fell upstream and downstream spot transactions are in a stalemate.
Lead, the overnight dollar index continued to be strong shock, LME base metals generally under pressure, Lun lead in this atmosphere shock shade operation center moved slightly down, daytime focus on 40-day moving average support. Overnight, the center of gravity of Shanghai lead moved up slightly, ending the decline in the first two trading days, crossing the 20-day moving average and standing firmly on the middle track of Brin Road. Since March, battery enterprises have gradually resumed work to replenish the stock, and the recovery of downstream consumption is worth looking forward to. Today, we will pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can continue its nighttime trend and stabilize its 20 moving average.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] overnight lead concussion in the two cities has been narrowed down, recycled lead discount has been narrowed.
On the zinc side, the US 1.9 trillion stimulus bill passed the House of Representatives and will be considered by the Senate this week. Pay short-term attention to the implementation of the US economic stimulus package. At present, transactions in the spot market are still relatively general, and domestic accumulations restrain the rise in the price of zinc in Shanghai. As the domestic "two sessions" will be held soon, the meeting of the political Bureau will once again set a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, giving priority to maintaining the smooth operation of the economy as a whole. In the short term, we will pay attention to the setting of the major economic targets of the "two sessions" this year and the 14th five-year Plan.
[summary of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] the two sessions are about to hold downstream exchanges.
In terms of nickel, recently, US bond yields have risen rapidly and volatility has increased, putting pressure on the prices of major assets that have risen significantly in the previous period. Although countries adhere to economic stimulus policies, there is no sign of turning to raising interest rates, and the early positive factors still exist, but prices have shown an advanced correction because of current market expectations. Recently, central banks have gradually come forward to reassure markets and pay attention to their actions. If market expectations do not materialize, there will still be room for major commodities to rise again, nickel's own fundamentals are performing well, and prices are also expected to strengthen again. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel is 136000-150000 yuan / ton, Lunni is 18300-20500 US dollars / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel continuously weakens continuously, spot trading picks up, water rises, and the price of strong stainless steel goes down slightly.
In terms of tin, according to the statistics of social warehouses in Shanghai, Guangdong and Suzhou, there is a certain degree of accumulation in the post-holiday market. Due to the recent sharp fluctuations in tin prices and a huge increase compared with those before the festival, the purchasing demand of the market is restrained to a certain extent, so the consumption rate of tin ingots slows down. In terms of tin mining, the blockade of Kangcheng District in WA State, Myanmar, has been completely lifted, and tin exports and transportation will further return to normal; last week, tin concentrate processing fees in the main domestic producing areas were increased by 1500-2000 yuan per ton, and tin prices ushered in a wave of rise after the festival. There was a lack of enthusiasm for purchasing the original processing fee smelter, and the processing fee was raised as a result.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] High tin price suppresses demand release and is on guard against the recent intensification of tin price volatility.
In terms of black series, threads fell by nearly 0.2%, hot rolls by nearly 0.1%, coking coal by nearly 1.9%, coke by nearly 1.4%, iron ore by nearly 1.2%, stainless steel by nearly 0.7%, and hot rolls by nearly 0.7%. In terms of hot rolls, yesterday's volume was weak throughout the day, and the spot market quotation in early trading fell steadily by 10-20 yuan / ton compared with last Friday, the spot price was high, and the performance of superimposed terminal demand was poor. Under the weak trading atmosphere of the volume, the delivery is not smooth, the afternoon volume is further lower, the transaction price in some areas is further adjusted, and the overall trading throughout the day is weak. In the later stage, on the supply side, environmental production restrictions and steel plant maintenance, production is expected to continue to decline, but still need to guard against the actual market supply pressure; demand side, the end of the Spring Festival, terminal construction, demand will further recover. Fundamentals are expected to move towards preference, superimposed on the recent warm macro environment, and the market has a good mentality for a strong recovery in terminal demand. Under this environment, spot prices are expected to continue to fluctuate upward next week.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is determined not to reduce the black system and will continue to fluctuate strongly.
Crude oil fell nearly 4 per cent in the previous period, while US crude oil futures prices fell more than 1 per cent on concerns about a slowdown in Chinese crude consumption and the possibility of an increase in global supply after this week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries ((OPEC)). OPEC oil production fell in February as Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut additional production on top of the OPEC alliance's production reduction agreement, a survey found. OPEC production has increased for the seventh month in a row. The group will meet on Thursday to discuss whether to increase production by 1.5 million barrels a day.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 1.3%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 1%. Comex gold futures gave up 1% on Monday, falling for the fifth day in a row, as the stronger dollar and rising investor risk appetite outweighed the support brought by the fall in U.S. Treasury yields. The dollar index jumped to a three-week high, while optimism about the stimulus package and good news about novel coronavirus's vaccination boosted risk sentiment in broader financial markets.
As of 09:35, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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