SMM2 March 17: most of the outer disk non-ferrous metals market rose during the Spring Festival. As of 15:00 in the afternoon on February 17, Lun Copper rose nearly 1.6%, Lunzn Zinc rose nearly 3.9%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 1.1%, Lun Nickel rose nearly 0.3%, Lunxi rose nearly 5.1%, and Lun lead rose nearly 1.2%. On Tuesday, LME copper briefly hit the highest level since 2012. It continued its uptrend driven by optimism about Chinese demand and the global economic recovery, but then broke off its high position in quiet trading. Copper for LME delivery has hit a multi-year high for three consecutive trading days. Copper prices have risen 93% since March last year. Lun copper remained up in the morning on Wednesday and fell back in the afternoon. In addition, Lunxi rose fiercely by 5.1% during the holiday. SMM believes that in Myanmar, although the political turmoil in Myanmar has no impact on the import of tin ore at Menga Port, transport at Ruili Port has been suspended due to political instability before the festival, and the duration of the impact is uncertain. Ruili Port generally undertakes about 500 metal tons of tin ore imports. In addition, the epidemic prevention measures at Menga Port against the novel coronavirus epidemic are still very strict, the transport speed of tin mines is still limited, and it is expected that the tense situation of domestic tin mines will not be alleviated soon.
U. S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow rising slightly and hitting an all-time high, while the Nasdaq and the S & P 500 closed lower. Market sentiment was damped by a sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields. There are fears that a sharp rise in U. S. bond yields could hamper the economic recovery. The Dow rose 64.35 points, or 0.20%, to 31522.75; the Nasdaq fell 47.97 points, or 0.34%, to 14047.50; and the S & P 500 fell 2.24 points, or 0.06%, to 3932.59. As of 15:00 on Feb. 17, the three major indexes of U. S. stocks remained stable in intraday trading.
For crude oil, crude oil futures closed near a 13-month high on Tuesday, helped by a cold spell in the southern United States that led to the closure of oil wells and refineries in Texas. Oil prices have been rising in recent months as major oil-producing countries restrict supplies and novel coronavirus vaccinations are boosted. The severe cold continues to wreak havoc on the US energy industry, suspending operations in the Houston waterway, while some of the largest refineries in the US's largest oil-producing state remain offline. As of 15:00 in the afternoon, both US and cloth crude oil were still floating red in intraday trading.
In precious metals, COMEX gold futures hit a more than one-week low on Tuesday as US bond yields strengthened. Analysts point out that US Treasury yields are rising and gold is once again turning into a safe haven from an inflation hedge for most of 2020. The US stock index hit a record high as optimism about the US $1.9 trillion novel coronavirus aid package also weighed on gold prices. On February 17, gold fell to a nearly two-week low on Wednesday as the dollar held firm and Treasury yields rose, while platinum fell further after hitting a more than six-year high in the previous session.
In terms of foreign economic data during the holiday period, the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week to February 6 was 793000, compared with a previous figure of 779000 revised to 812000, and is expected to be 757000. The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the US economy continues. Many states in the United States are facing a situation in which novel coronavirus vaccine is in short supply and previously distributed vaccines are about to be exhausted. In addition, in the U.S. Congress, there are obvious differences between Democrats and Republicans on a new round of economic stimulus package.
The initial consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan fell to 76.2 in February, the lowest in six months. The consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan unexpectedly fell to 76.2 in early February, a six-month low, and the market had expected it to rise slightly to 80.9 from 79 in January. Analysts say the figure is even worse than economists' most pessimistic expectations. Financial blog Zerohedge commented that as indicators of business conditions plummeted and inflation expectations soared in the coming year, the Michigan consumer confidence index was suggesting stagflation in the United States.
Euro zone industrial output monthly rate in December, prior to 2.50%, expected to be-1%, reported-1.6%, revised 2.6% (previous value). Euro zone quarterly adjusted trade account (billion euros) in December, with a previous value of 251, expected to be 250, announced 275.
The quarterly rate of employment in the euro zone after quarterly adjustment in the fourth quarter, with a previous value of 1.00%, is expected to be 0.1%, and 0.3% is announced. Euro area fourth quarter GDP annualized rate correction, previous value-5.10%, expected-5.10%, announced-5%, euro zone February ZEW economic climate index, previous value 58.3, expected, released 69.6, German February ZEW economic climate index, previous value 61.8, expected 59.6, published 71.2.
Financial market experts at ZEW:, a German think-tank, are optimistic about the future, believing that the German economy will return to growth in the next six months. Consumption and retail trade are expected to recover significantly, while inflation expectations will rise.
Forecast of metal market trend after the festival
[SMM Analysis] during the Spring Festival, Lun lead refreshes a 15-month high and pays attention to the change of lead ingot inventory.
"[SMM Analysis] A list of hot spots in the city's nickel industry chain after the festival: new energy continues to be hot, first-class nickel inventory is still low-carbon, high-carbon ferrochromium market will continue to develop.
[SMM Analysis] the trend of LMESI during the Spring Festival holiday will take into account the forecast of the future.
[SMM Analysis] optimistic expectation of resuming work: steel prices stop falling and rising
[SMM survey] Prospect of supply and demand of magnesium ingot market after festival
