SMM2: the outer metal market was mixed yesterday, with (LME) copper on the London Metal Exchange falling on Monday as manufacturing data from China, the largest consumer, increased the likelihood of slower demand growth, while the rise in the dollar prompted funds to reduce their bets on rising prices, but record lows in inventories limited the decline in copper prices. Most of the LME metal markets were red in early trading today. As of 09:30, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.6%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.3%, Lun Aluminum rose slightly, Lunni rose nearly 0.2%, Lunxi fell nearly 0.1%, Lunxi lead fell nearly 0.2%, domestic copper fell nearly 0.2%, Shanghai Copper fell slightly, Shanghai Aluminum and Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai Zinc fell nearly 0.5%, Shanghai Nickel fell slightly, and Shanghai Tin fell nearly 0.6 per cent. on the domestic side, international copper fell nearly 0.2 per cent, Shanghai copper fell slightly, Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.4 per cent, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.5 per cent, Shanghai nickel fell slightly, and Shanghai tin fell nearly 0.6 per cent.
In terms of copper, the overnight Shanghai Copper 2103 contract opened as low as 57790 yuan / ton, fluctuated below the daily moving average, and finally closed at 57610 yuan / ton, a decline of 0.52 percent, with a trading volume of 47000 and a position of 116000 hands. The final value of Markit manufacturing PMI released by the United States last night reached 59.2 in January, the highest since records began in May 2007. Manufacturing got off to a strong start, bringing some support to the dollar, and copper for night delivery showed signs of exhaustion.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper low swings overnight due to the upside of the dollar index.
Aluminum, the Spring Festival is approaching, enterprises have entered the maintenance period and the Spring Festival holiday, orders and shipments are reduced, is still in the accumulation cycle, the weak domestic fundamentals trend is difficult to change in the short term, but the holder is more willing to raise the price. Futures monthly difference, due to the long position concentration 03-04 contract, the monthly difference between the recent contract and 05 quickly opened, thus giving room for arbitrage. It is expected that the center of gravity of Shanghai Aluminum will continue to fluctuate in the short term, so we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of inventory changes on market sentiment and contract structure.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the trend of aluminum ingot accumulation continues that the overall removal of aluminum bars is not as good as that in the same period last year.
In terms of lead, overnight, Lun lead rose slightly, LME lead inventory fell 1975 tons to 96775 tons, once again refreshed the inventory low in the past half a year, to the library to continue to support Lun lead high shock, but the overnight dollar index rebound trend to Lun lead upward pressure. Overnight, Shanghai lead lost its 20-day moving average support and continued to test the Wanwu first line. Recently, the stock preparation of storage enterprises is coming to an end, trading is light, the removal of lead ingots to the warehouse will gradually slow down, and the upward power of lead in Shanghai is slightly insufficient.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] overnight, lead fell slightly in Shanghai and continued to weaken in spot trading.
In terms of zinc, China's January xin manufacturing PMI declined, and near the end of the year, downstream enterprises had more holidays, the spot market became weaker, and social inventories increased, which was a drag on zinc prices, but TC declined in some parts of the country, and the tight pattern of mines did not change, and consumption expectations after the superimposed year were expected to limit its decline. Short-term zinc prices may continue to fluctuate on the weak side.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] near the end of the year, consumption in the lower reaches weakens and zinc prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.
In terms of nickel, due to the recent cooling of optimism brought about by overseas loose policies, the renewed bullish of safe-haven funds has led to a rebound in the US dollar index, and domestic funds have also been tight. Many varieties have fallen for many days in a row and the downward trend can be too strong. The divergent mentality of the market has increased. Bulls are looking forward to a rebound, but will carefully choose the timing to enter the market in this atmosphere, focusing on whether the downward momentum has slowed and whether the 130000 mark and 40-day moving average can stop falling.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel spot trading atmosphere is light and the stainless steel market is gradually entering the holiday state, but the 400 series is still strong.
In terms of black series, the thread fell by nearly 0.9%, the hot coil by nearly 0.6%, coking coal by nearly 1.1%, coke by nearly 1.8%, iron ore by nearly 0.7%, stainless steel by nearly 0.3%, and the news surface. According to Futures Daily, the discount on the rebar 2105 contract is very small at present, and the operation should be on guard against the oscillatory adjustment of the futures price before and after the Spring Festival. The future can continue to pay attention to the stoppage and resumption of work at the site before and after the Spring Festival. If the epidemic situation changes, it will have a greater impact on the resumption of work on the site and the short-term sentiment of the steel market. In recent years, due to the rising proportion of direct sales of steel mills, coupled with the rich channels to obtain financial support, the proportion of traders' winter storage has declined, and many steel mills have begun to store winter storage either actively or passively. Due to the general loss of steelmaking profits of steel mills this year, the probability of large profits to traders in winter storage is relatively small, and the probability of passive winter storage is increased.
"the downlink space of rebar is limited.
Last period crude oil rose nearly 2.3 per cent, while US crude oil futures closed up more than 2 per cent on Monday as falling US crude inventories and one of the worst Blizzard attacks in years led to a rise in winter fuel demand. Crude stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma, where crude oil futures were delivered, fell by 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 22, according to data released last week by the Energy Information Administration ((EIA)). Analysts and traders quoted a report by Wood Mackenzie (Wood Mackenzie) as saying that inventories were expected to fall by another 2.3 million barrels last week.
In terms of precious metals, it is estimated that it rose nearly 0.6%, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 3.8%. Comex silver futures rose for the third trading day in a row on Monday, rising to an eight-year high, as retail investors shifted their focus from GameStop and other stocks to silver. Last week, individual investors focused on the shares of relatively small, heavily shorted companies such as GameStop, driving their share prices to soar. Commodity experts say this group tends to gather on sites such as Discord and Reddit and may be turning their attention to silver.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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