SMM1: the outer metal market was green yesterday, with (LME) zinc on the London Metal Exchange hitting a more than two-month low on Wednesday as LME zinc stocks soared, highlighting oversupply at a time when Chinese demand is slowing. Novel coronavirus's worries about the epidemic still exist, in addition, the Federal Reserve meeting said that it would not raise interest rates for the time being, but said that the economic recovery slowed and did not promise to further increase the stimulus policy, the overnight dollar index strengthened, the panic index soared, and US stocks suffered a sharp fall. the performance of risk assets is collectively poor, and it is difficult for the non-ferrous sector to be left alone, and a large area of green overnight. In early trading today, the LME metal market was green across the board. Lun Copper, Lun Aluminum and Lun Xi fell nearly 0.3%, Lun Zinc fell nearly 0.4%, Lun lead and Lun Nickel fell nearly 0.9%. On the domestic side, international copper and Shanghai Copper fell 1.7%, Shanghai Aluminum fell nearly 0.6%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 1.4%, Shanghai Zinc fell nearly 2.1%, Shanghai Nickel fell nearly 1.9%, and Shanghai Tin fell nearly 0.2%.
In terms of copper, copper fell sharply in night trading, mainly due to the macro aspect, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates and bond purchase programs unchanged, and did not take more measures to stimulate the economy, while Federal Reserve Powell said that while the novel coronavirus epidemic is not over, the pace of economic recovery may be slowing. The Fed's statement heightened concerns about the prospects for an economic recovery, superimposed by the continuing severity of the novel coronavirus epidemic, and the dollar index was boosted by safe-haven buying and rose sharply in night trading, reaching 90.88 at one point in intraday trading. The S & P 500 also posted its biggest drop in three months at night.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the US dollar index hit a recent high and copper went out of the deep V trend at night.
In terms of aluminum, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the mood of receiving goods downstream is weakening, and at the same time, aluminum ingots are about to arrive at the warehouse one after another in the past two days. Today's statistics show that the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is still in a state of accumulation, and the weak trend of domestic fundamentals is difficult to change in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the mood for receiving goods in the lower reaches of the Spring Festival holiday is weakening and demand is weak.
In terms of lead, the overnight Federal Reserve was cautious about the economic recovery, the US dollar rose due to risk aversion, LME basic metals fell under pressure, although Lun lead once again went to the warehouse sharply, reducing 3325 tons to 107175 tons, but Lun lead still fell back in this general decline atmosphere, close the negative column, below the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day moving average, giving up all its gains so far this week. Overnight Shanghai lead affected by lun lead downside jumped low, falling below the 5-day moving average, but below the 10-day moving average effectively supported, out of the stop-falling upward market, and finally slightly lower than yesterday's settlement price, Shanghai lead paid attention to the 5-day moving average support level during the day.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the overnight outer disk fell slightly in Shanghai lead market, and there was a marked drop in pre-festival purchasing in the lead market.
In terms of nickel, the downstream consumption of stainless steel is better than the expected level in the same period in previous years, and generally speaking, the demand support for nickel is relatively ideal; the fundamental performance of nickel itself is stable, and the comprehensive performance of the domestic electrolytic nickel market is better than that of nickel pig iron. However, delivery and import will supplement the market supply and the shortage of supply will be alleviated gradually; with the increase in the price of stainless steel, the price of high nickel pig iron has also been improved. In addition, the procurement cycle of the new energy industry is ahead of schedule, resulting in a good performance of nickel sulfate consumption and a shortage of raw materials. On the macro side, overseas easing and the expected recovery of consumption still make the market think that commodities are in a strong cycle. Biden took over as president and the United States adopted active economic stimulus policies to boost the metal market. The current good macro environment can provide some support for the consolidation of high nickel prices, and pay attention to whether the Biden stimulus package can be carried out smoothly and the effectiveness of vaccination and effectiveness.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the drop in the price of nickel attracts spot buyers to buy nickel pig iron with a slight increase in the latest transaction price.
In terms of the black system, the thread fell nearly 0.4%, the hot coil rose nearly 0.1%, coking coal fell nearly 0.8%, coke fell nearly 1.2%, iron ore fell nearly 1.6%, stainless steel fell nearly 1.7%, iron ore, some steel enterprises in the northwest recently considered that the sales of finished products were lower than expected, coupled with the great cost pressure of raw materials such as coke, some blast furnaces in the plant have been overhauled and stopped production, and the demand for raw materials such as iron ore has been reduced. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has recently advocated the compression of crude steel production capacity, which may restrain the market to a certain extent. However, considering that the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, some steel companies still have plans to increase raw material stocks one after another, and there is still some support for imported mine prices.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Hangzhou Thread Storage will speed up the peak inventory in 2021 or exceed 1 million tons again.
Crude oil rose nearly 0.4% in the previous period, and international crude oil futures changed little on Wednesday, although US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell sharply, hitting buying interest because of continuing concerns about the novel coronavirus epidemic. Us crude oil stocks unexpectedly plunged nearly 10 million barrels last week to their lowest level since March last year, the (EIA) said on Wednesday. Us crude oil stocks fell by 9.9 million barrels to 476.7 million barrels in the week ended January 22, compared with market expectations of an increase of 430000 barrels, according to the data.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.5 per cent, Shanghai silver fell nearly 1.1 per cent, and international gold futures fell to their lowest level in more than a week on Wednesday, putting pressure on concerns about the US stimulus package and the strengthening of the dollar as markets waited for the Fed to announce its policy decision. Gold futures continued their decline after the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision. Analysts pointed out that before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, the stock market fell, the dollar also showed some rebound, which put pressure on the gold market.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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